2023 Injury Breakdowns: Running Backs Returning from Injury
Every NFL season comes with star players finding their way onto season-ending IR and question marks through the off-season and preseason as they near the following season. This series discusses key details in the player’s current recovery tract and injury projections for the 2023 seasons and for their dynasty value.
Let’s dive in.
Javonte Williams, RB DEN
Tracking back six weeks from when Williams was able to get off of crutches, it seems as though his surgery took place around October 24th last year. When he is active in week one, it will mark 10 months 17 days out from his surgery.
Originally, I had been of the belief that his timeline would be somewhere between 10 months to 12 months to be able to return to the field, and it appears that he is on track for that. In fact, we just found out that he is avoiding starting on PUP for the start of training camp, a feat that JK Dobbins was unable to do (which is why I have stopped using Dobbins as a comparison for Williams’ recovery and why you should do the same).
The sooner Williams is active, the sooner he will return to being start-able for fantasy purposes, which is why being active in week one is absolutely fantastic news. Expect Williams to return to fantasy starting rosters by week 7-8 range, which marks 12 months from his surgery and should allow him to return to prominence, if not even sooner. Expect his ADP and price tag to skyrocket.
Breece Hall, RB NYJ
Hall’s surgery can be tracked back to roughly November 15th, placing him close to three weeks behind Javonte Williams’ recovery. The good news here is that Hall’s injury was just an ACL+meniscus (which was addressed with debridement, not repair), so his recovery has had zero roadblocks.
He has been reaching 23 mph in straight-line sprinting, which is absolutely absurd coming off an ACL reconstruction let alone for any healthy player. Yes, Hall started camp on PUP, however the Jets have continued to state optimism about him being healthy and active for week one of the season. I’m not reading too much into Hall starting on PUP while Williams didn’t, as given the injuries, despite a three week window difference, gives Hall plenty of time to be near full-go by week one, which would be 9 months 26 days away from his surgery.
I’ll be conservative here and say Hall will return to being a top-ten running back by week 5-6, which would place him over 11 months out from his surgery. Here are some key reasons why I’m not fading Hall in the customary “fade year one ACL” methodology as many have become accustomed to.
Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
Taylor underwent an arthroscopic ankle procedure to clean out scar tissue and “junk” out of his ankle roughly around January 29th. He was not in attendance in OTAs, but is expected to be full-go once camp begins. Of note, he has been placed on PUP despite comments from the Colts owner about how he is fully healthy, leading to speculation that this is a similar “contract” situation to JK Dobbins winding up on PUP.
In terms of production dip, coming off of a simple ankle clean-up should allow him to return to his prior elite form for this coming season. Expect him to be full go for camp and then back to elite form for week one of the season, assuming he does not hold out for much longer.
Isiah Pacheco, RB KC
Pacheco has been recovering from a hand fracture and a labral repair in his shoulder over the off-season, and had initially been rumored to start camp on PUP. However, he has avoided that and is reportedly full-go, despite the Chiefs being cautious with him with a non-contact jersey on to start camp.
Andy Reid already stated that they are being cautious with him because he only has one speed and the team does not want to risk him getting hurt in preparation for the season. Expect Pacheco to be fully healthy for week one.
Dameon Pierce, RB HOU
Pierce wound up on the season-ending IR last season with a high ankle sprain, but thankfully did not require surgery. The good news is that these injuries typically require four-six weeks to fully recover, but once they do fully recover they do not lead to long-term issues.
Pierce has reportedly been full-go leading into camp. No need to fade him due to injury concerns. The downside is that Devin Singletary will likely take some work from him.
Antonio Gibson, RB WAS
Gibson found himself on the season-ending IR last season after dealing with a persistent ankle sprain but also revealing he suffered a foot fracture. He required surgery after the season, with no details coming out since. He likely suffered a metatarsal fracture that would require 6-8 weeks to fully recover. If he had suffered a more significant fracture, such as a Jones fracture or Lisfranc, I think we would have found out more information by now.
As of now, I do believe that he will be able to return and be active for week one. However, I do have high concerns about Gibson’s ability to remain healthy for an entire season, so temper expectations entering 2023. The team likely continues to lean on Brian Robinson from a volume standpoint, keeping Gibson in a small volume role and banking on his efficiency per touch as well as attempting to keep him healthy. We shall see. At cost, he may be worth the gamble.
Follow me on Twitter (or X?) @jmthrivept for more injury analysis and comments.
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- Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week Seven - October 19, 2024
