Dynasty Decision: Mike Williams
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Mike Williams, WR LAC
Mike Williams is perhaps the biggest fantasy tease of the past five seasons. The highs have been incredibly high, as seen by his overall WR2 production through the first five weeks of the 2021 season. However, the lows have been painful such as only producing five top 36 weeks in the entire 2020 season. He is a prototypical big-bodied outside receiver who thrives in contested catch situations when healthy. However, those situations have not been familiar enough through his career’s first six years.
Previous Performance
The fantasy production has been there since being drafted as the seventh overall pick in the 2017 draft, but the consistency and health have not been. In his rookie season, he only saw the field in ten games and struggled to carve out a significant role seeing only 23 targets.
Since that season, he has carved out a role as the number two target on the Chargers offense. Despite flashes, he has never put together an entire season and, as such, has posted only one top-24 season in his career.
Situation and Usage
The usage of the receiver is fascinating. He has always been used primarily as a true x outside receiver who runs a vertical route tree. This can be seen by his career aDOTs that have been above 12.0 every season but above 15.0 four out of the six seasons. Because of this, the type of targets he sees are more likely to be either deep attempts or red-zone targets, which are likely to score higher points than a traditional wide receiver target. In the last two years with Herbert under center, his aDOT has declined slightly, although they’re the two highest target seasons of his career to date. Tied to an elite franchise Quarterback in Herbert, it is a dream situation. You can almost guarantee target quality, and he has a high baseline of target volume. With Kellen Moore coming across from Dallas as the offensive coordinator, you would hope that the entire offense takes a step forward, allows more scoring opportunities, and increases the aDOT for Williams back towards the 15+ he saw earlier in his career.
The increased target competition will be a big question surrounding Williams and his production. The Chargers have target hog Keenan Allen back for another year and have just spent a first-round pick on rookie Quentin Johnston. All three players complement each other exceptionally well. Allen will play primarily out of the slot in the same role he has held for the last five years. Johnston will be utilized as a moveable offensive piece who can line up all over the field and take advantage of his after-the-catch skills. This frees up Mike Williams to be used as the downfield vertical threat he is best suited to. The volume of target competition means there may be a slight decline in the 18.6% target share he saw in 2022. However, if there is an increase in the aDOT of those targets, the difference should be negligible.
Injuries and Contract
Injuries have been the biggest challenge to Williams throughout his career. He has appeared in every regular season game only once throughout his career. The list of injuries is focused on three areas ankle sprains and hamstring strains which are not overly concerning, and back-related issues, which are far more concerning. There were some reports in January this year that he may need back surgery, but it appears that he has not opted for surgery, although reports have not been overly conclusive. Hopefully, there are no lingering issues moving forward; however, it is certainly something to keep in mind over the next couple of years. Furthermore, given Williams’s play style as a physical downfield, contested catch receiver, there is an increased risk of reaggravating the injury.
Contractually he signed a 3-year $60m extension in March 2022. This ties him into the Chargers until after the 2024 season. However, with only $12.46m guaranteed, the Chargers could save $20m in cap space by moving on from the receiver at the end of the season. That needs to be considered, given the pending colossal contract for Justin Herbert, which is on the horizon. However, the likely scenario is that he is extended during the season to free up some immediate cap space for the Herbert extension while tying in Williams longer term.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the WR43 in May ADP, and the Trade Analyzer has him worth around a late 2023 first or two random future second-round picks. Recent trades from the DLF Trade Finder are below; the majority of recent trades have been player related, so they don’t truly reflect his value in terms of picks. However, some straight-up player trades highlight how lowly Williams is being valued.
Conclusion
Williams is undoubtedly a hit-and-miss type of player who will have some down weeks and some weeks where he provides no value to your starting lineup. However, Williams also has league-winning potential. Look at the start of the 2021 season, where he was the overall WR2. If you had to pay the top 24 prices to acquire Williams, I would understand the nervousness around the inconsistency. However, he is currently being valued as a WR4/flex play. How often can you find a player you can acquire for less than a first that has the genuinely elite upside of Williams?
Given his market value, Williams seems too straightforward to call a buy. He is a screaming value. He offers tremendous upside without the ticket price if you’re a contender. He is the aggressive buy-to-flip asset that could reward you if you’re rebuilding. If you acquire him now and he produces well during the season, you will likely be able to sell him for a profit during the season.
There is some potential downside given the injury history and propensity to disappear for stretches of the season, but acquiring that risk is already baked in at the current cost. Williams is not an old player but is approaching the age cliff. He is currently 28, and projecting any value beyond the next two to three seasons may be ambitious, but he is a superb value for a short-term window.
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