Sophomore Slumps or Sensations? Breaking Down the Second-Year Running Backs
2022’s crop of rookie running backs surprised some people last season. Now, seven different players from last year’s rookie class are among the top 34 running backs, according to DLF’s startup ADP. Let’s take a look at their rookie seasons and what dynasty managers should expect in the coming year.
Breece Hall, NYJ
Age – 21.8
2022 PPG – 16.4 – RB7
Startup ADP – 12.83 overall – RB4
‘Breece Lightning’ was on his way to finishing as a top-ten running back before he went down with a torn ACL in week seven. He averaged 66.1 rushing yards and 31.1 receiving yards per game in 2022. Saquon Barkley, Le’Veon Bell, Edgerrin James, and Marshall Faulk are the only other NFL players to average 60+ rushing yards and 30+ receiving yards per game as 21-year-old rookies.
He led all rookie running backs in fantasy points per game, yards per carry, yards per game, targets per game, ADOT, and targets per route run. The Jets used an early second-round pick on Hall just a year ago, so there’s no chance they look to replace him anytime soon.
Hall was considered the RB1 in most dynasty rankings before his injury, so don’t be surprised if he reclaims his crown as soon as next season. There appears to be a nice two-year runway with Aaron Rodgers potentially piloting the Jets, which means he could be a league-winning piece if you’re a contender with a similar window.
Kenneth Walker, SEA
Age – 22.4
2022 PPG – 13.5 – RB17
Startup ADP – 14.8 overall – RB5
It took a Rashaad Penny injury, but Walker capitalized on his opportunity to lead the Seahawks’ backfield. He was phenomenal from the very moment he took over as the starter, averaging more than 90 yards on 20 touches per game as a starter (11 games).
The second-round pick was better than expected as a receiver, finishing the season with 27 receptions (35 targets). However, those numbers are a little bit deceiving. Walker actually had one or fewer receptions in over half of his games in 2022.
The Seahawks have relied heavily on a feature back and the draft capital they invested in Walker means he’ll have a substantial role in a run-heavy offense for as long as he’s healthy.
Dameon Pierce, HOU
Age – 23.1
2022 PPG – 13.1 – RB13
Startup ADP – 72.12 overall – RB20
Pierce was a top-15 running back before he went down with a high ankle sprain. Before his injury, the Texans had leaned on their rookie running back. He led all rookies in touches per game (19.2) last season, but I’m not ready to count on that workload in his sophomore season.
The Texans brought in Devin Singletary, who averaged more than 200 touches and 1,000 scrimmage yards per season during his rookie contract. There’s no reason to assume that Singletary won’t be fed a good chunk of work in Houston as well. I’m also concerned that the Texans could draft a running back on day two (if not sooner). They have five picks inside the top 100 in this year’s draft, and a new coaching regime could look to bring in their guy. Pierce should be on the trade block in dynasty leagues.
Rachaad White, TB
Age – 24.2
2022 PPG – 8.6 – RB 50
Startup ADP – 72.12 overall – RB21
Despite the presence of Leonard Fournette, White earned the lion’s share of the touches in 2022. He took over as the starter in week ten and had two top-ten finishes at running back in his final six games.
It looks like this backfield is White’s to lose after the Bucs cut ties with Fournette in the off-season. They signed Chase Edmonds, but he is a smaller complementary back who poses no real threat to take significant volume. The Bucs only have three picks in the top 150, and plenty of holes to fill elsewhere, so I think White’s job as the starter is safe.
White was one of the best receiving backs from the 2022 class. He led all rookie running backs with 50 receptions last season. It’s rare to have a back his size with such great receiving skills. In fact, he was just the tenth rookie running back who weighed at least 210 lbs to eclipse 50 receptions since the turn of the century.
Image via Stathead.
Tampa Bay looks like they are transitioning into rebuild mode, but I’m not fading Rachaad White. He’s a fantastic receiver with enough size to get a good workload on first and second downs. I expect him to get well over 200 touches if he stays healthy in 2023. He’s an interesting trade target at his price.
Isiah Pacheco, KC
Age – 24
2022 PPG – 8.2 – RB53
Startup ADP – 85.2 overall – RB26
It was a wild year for Pacheco. He went from a sixth-round draft pick to the starting running back and Super Bowl champion. Pacheco started 11 games and led Kansas City in rushing in 2022.
The allure of this offense makes Pacheco appealing, but he was only targeted 14 times as a rookie. The Chiefs will use another back on passing downs, whether that’s Jerick McKinnon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, or a rookie. This class has no shortage of good receiving backs, and Kansas City has 12 picks to use. Pacheco has a very high ceiling as long as he’s attached to Patrick Mahomes, but you shouldn’t be shy about shopping him on the open market before the draft.
James Cook, BUF
Age – 23.5
2022 PPG – 6.7 – RB62
Startup ADP – 88 overall – RB27
Cook wasn’t a breakout star as a rookie, but he eventually found a role in the high-octane Buffalo Bills offense. The Bills were looking for a pass-catching back and it looks like they found their man in Cook who averaged over three targets per game in the final five weeks of the season. I expect his role to grow as he gets more acclimated to the NFL in his sophomore season. He was also an efficient rusher, averaging 5.7 yards per carry (89 carries) as a rookie.
The Buffalo Bills gave Devin Singletary a lot of work throughout his rookie contract and Cook seems like the logical successor. Newly signed Damien Harris will eat into the early down work, but Cook will be on the field for third downs and in the two-minute drill. He had nine or more rushes four times in his final seven games, so I think he’s in line for 150 or more rushes to go along with a healthy target share. Cook’s arrow is pointing up in Buffalo.
Brian Robinson, WAS
Age – 24
2022 PPG – 9.2 – RB41
Startup ADP – 103.3 – RB33
Robinson missed the first month of the season after being shot twice in the leg in late August 2022. The running back from Alabama showed his resilience by averaging 71 yards on 18 touches per game (12 games) last season.
Before last year, Ron Rivera’s teams produced an RB1 four straight seasons. Robinson has the size and receiving ability to be a three-down workhorse for Riverboat Ron in Washington. It looked like he seized the role last season. In the seven games Robinson started, he averaged over 24 touches per game. Antonio Gibson is still lurking in the background, but Robinson should get a significant workload in 2023.
Tyler Allgeier, ATL
Age – 22.9
2022 PPG – 10 – RB36
Startup ADP – 106.5 overall – RB34
Allgeier took over Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offense, and he surprised a lot of people when he went over 1,000 yards in his rookie season. The BYU product averaged nearly five yards per carry. He did average a reception per game as a rookie, his role was primarily as a rusher in 2022.
Allgeier averaged over 16 touches per game when he started and had ten or more touches in 14 of the 16 games he played in. Smith has relied on big backs before, but I’m not sure that Allgeier will see an increase in work in 2023. As long as he’s healthy, Cordarrelle Patterson will still get some work out of the backfield. It’s also possible that the Falcons dip into this very deep running back class, so Allgeier is a good player to shop on the open market before the NFL Draft.
- 2023 Rookie Drafts: Running Back Tiers Primer - May 12, 2023
- Sophomore Slumps or Sensations? Breaking Down the Second-Year Running Backs - April 6, 2023
- Ten Late-Round Rookie Sleepers with Upside - March 28, 2023
