The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact of Sam Howell and Russell Wilson being benched
With teams being eliminated from playoff contention each and every week, we’re starting to see what future plans could entail for some NFL franchises, specifically at quarterback. In Washington, Sam Howell has been benched for Jacoby Brissett in what looks to be a desperate move for a coaching staff clearly on the hot seat. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos have informed Russell Wilson he won’t be under center the rest of the way as they will turn to Jarrett Stidham, despite still being mathematically still in playoff contention. These moves could both signal some serious changes in both cities in the off-season. Let’s break down the ramifications in Washington, Denver and beyond and re-assess some dynasty values.
Russell Wilson, QB DEN
Well, this is interesting. There have been rumors all year long that Sean Payton simply didn’t want to inherit Wilson. Unfortunately for Payton, it was kind of part of the job after the Seahawks famously traded Wilson and a fourth-round pick in exchange for quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant and defensive tackle Shelby Harris. Denver also sent two first-round draft picks, two second-round draft picks and one fifth-round pick in the deal. In other words, Denver sold the farm to get Wilson so Payton was stuck once he got the job.
Or was he?
By benching Wilson and ensuring he doesn’t get hurt, the Broncos are likely planning on releasing Wilson before his 2025 salary is guaranteed (at least that’s what Wilson is saying). Payton is claiming the Broncos need a spark at the position but anyone can likely see through that. Wilson himself is saying he knew of this move coming for the past two months after he did not defer the injury guarantee trigger date that he has for 2025 – $37 million guaranteed on the fifth day of the league year. In other words, this marriage is over and the trade is going to go down as one of the worst in the history of the franchise.
Wilson himself has clearly not been the same player he was in Seattle. Last year was an abject disaster as he posted just 3,524 passing yards with an anemic 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. This year was markedly better as Wilson will presumably finish with 3,070 yards with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Still, his two years in Denver will result in the two worst seasons of his career in terms of QBR. It still a shocking move financially, though, The Broncos are likely going to take an $85 million hit against the salary cap in 2024 if Wilson is released in March. That can be cut to $35.4 million for 2024 if he is designated as a post-June 1 release.
Assuming this is the end for Wilson, he’ll hit the free agent market and likely find a lot of suitors out there. Teams like New England, Atlanta, Washington (more on them here later), Tennessee, the Giants, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh could all be in the market for a starter, and that’s just throwing some darts. In other words, he’ll find a home as a veteran who has had a lot of success. Could the Seahawks even bring him back? Who knows at this point,
In terms of dynasty value, Wilson has clearly reached the “veteran borderline starter” status in dynasty leagues and fallen down to our QB20, a ranking he’ll have a hard time holding on to with a new crop of rookies coming in. In the end, he’s simply not going to be a QB1 to build around any longer and is best served as a bye week fill-in or backup to your weekly starter moving forward. It’s tough to accept but that’s just reality at this point.
Jarrett Stidham, QB DEN
It would be nice to believe Payton and think Stidham has a realistic chance to be the quarterback for the Broncos moving forward but that’s just hard to believe, We’ll see how he does and evaluate this off-season but it seems likely the Broncos are going to be serious players in the free agent market for someone like Kirk Cousins or (even more likely) looking at this year’s draft for their long-term answer.
Sam Howell, QB WAS
Meanwhile, Howell has been sent to the bench in Washington in favor of Jacoby Brissett. Howell was the QB16 on the season and putting up relatively good numbers. However, the Commanders aren’t winning games and anyone watching could see Howell still had a long way to go in his development. This move makes it likely Washington hits the reset button as well and it’s hard to see Howell just keeping this job and entering next year without much competition. It’s been pretty amazing to see him put up over 3,600 passing yards and 19 touchdowns but his 16 interceptions and the fact he’s been sacked more than anyone else in the league clearly worked against him in the end. His last five games have also been a disaster as he’s throw for just two touchdowns and eight interceptions, including throwing for just 56 yards and two picks and completing just 6-of-22 passes this week in a meltdown against the Jets. Howell is going to be a hold for now but the thought of him being a long-term starter in dynasty leagues just had a huge bucket of cold water thrown on it. Brissett is also not the answer here as he’s had his chances in the past. Howell’s ADP is poised to take a nose dive now.
Denver and Washington Skill Players
It’s hard to say what this is really going to do for the backs and receivers in both cities the rest of the way. Realistically, Javonte Williams and Jerry Jeudy have been huge disappointments in Denver. You could say the same about Brian Robinson, Terry McLaurin and the rest of the Commanders offense. Hopefully both of these teams can find a long-term solution that helps all these player. Unfortunately, that’s likely not going to be in championship week.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
- Dynasty Fantasy Football 2024 NFL Draft: Veteran Winners and Losers from Day Two - April 27, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football 2024 NFL Draft: Veteran Winners and Losers from Day One - April 26, 2024
- Dynasty Running Back Danger Rankings: 8-1 - April 25, 2024
