Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired
Standing still is the fastest way of moving backwards in a rapidly changing dynasty landscape. The best dynasty teams are the most active in looking for ways to add value to their dynasty rosters, as part of a continuous process.
The Dynasty Targets Acquired series focuses on making dynasty buys to improve your roster, heading towards one of two key destinations – contending to win a dynasty title in 2023 or rebuilding for a dynasty title challenge in 2024. Each article in the series will highlight a dynasty buy for both contenders and rebuilders – with three trade ideas based on the DLF Trade Analyzer: Pivot Up, Same Tier or Pivot Down.
Buying as a contender is all about winning the title now, whilst leaving the window open to compete again year after year. Buying as a rebuilder is all about making the right trades to maximize roster value next season and become a contender for a dynasty championship.
TIME CONTEXT AND STRATEGY
Dynasty teams are well past the point of deciding whether or not they are competing or rebuilding, but that doesn’t stop the desire and need to trade. With week 13 of the NFL season comes another “byepocalypse”, with six teams on a bye. Add in all of the injuries and underperforming NFL offenses, and we’re left with a huge week of trading in dynasty leagues. This kind of scenario really benefits rebuilding teams, because there will be some desperate competing teams just trying to survive (I have a couple myself!), so you may be able to get a little extra added into a deal this week.
CONTENDER BUY – Rachaad White, RB TB
This season has been a showcase of the transition that is happening in the NFL. Gone are the days of the true “workhorse” running back, with only a few exceptions. Most teams are utilizing a true split backfield, with each player used to their strengths. Unfortunately, that doesn’t leave us with many league-winning options, so in many cases, we’re left playing matchups and hoping for the best. The goal this time of the season is to find a set-and-forget RB with upside, and we may just have that with White.
Courtesy of DLF’s Player Gamelog App.
Looking at the chart above, we can see that White has become a consistent option with a high floor and a high ceiling. His 12% target share makes him an extremely safe option, especially knowing the Buccaneers will be playing catchup in most games. There are very few players who offer this level of floor, ceiling, and youth, at the RB position, so that leads me to prioritize White as a trade target.
Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Over Time App.
As you can see above, White’s ADP has stayed fairly consistent over the past nine months, disregarding an outlier month in July. What’s interesting to me is that he has fallen a few spots since the start of the season. People are dismissing the RB6 on the year, most likely because of the team he is on or the possibility of him being replaced in the draft next season. The upcoming draft class is lacking in the RB department, to say the very least, so I wouldn’t let those worries stop you from making this move.
Pivot Up
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets
- Kendre Miller and a late 24 second = Rachaad White
I don’t love the idea of getting rid of Miller because I still believe in his talent, but his rookie year has been underwhelming. In most cases, you paid a second to get Miller, so this ends up being essentially two seconds for White, which I am more than happy to do. The rebuilding side might want more on top, but this should at least get the conversation started.
Same Tier
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the Same Tier of valuation, in a straight-up swap deal
- Late 24 first = Rachaad White
Same as the last trade, I don’t love the idea of getting rid of my first, but it will easily be worth it if it buys a championship. Once again, this is a good deal for both sides, so it should get it done. I also noticed that the trade analyzer was valuing Diontae Johnson and Calvin Ridley around the same value as White, so I would be looking to make that kind of move before switching to my first.
Pivot Down
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset
- Jonathan Taylor = Rachaad White and Mike Evans
This trade is very specific, but there are plenty of other options to add in with White to make up the difference in the trade. There are likely a good amount of competing teams that just lost Taylor for the next few weeks and need another RB to fill in. The DLF trade analyzer seems to be pretty low on White, so it’s saying you should get more, but I don’t think it’s very realistic to ask for much more than this. You can always aim higher, but be willing to come back down to something like this offer.
REBUILDER BUY – Marvin Mims, WR DEN
It’s that time of year. Mariah Carey is on every radio station, people are hanging up decorations, and contenders are willing to pay up for players who are scoring points. It’s the perfect time to take advantage of that need while ridding your team of declining assets. While there are a large amount of potential targets here, I went with a cheaper option in the hopes that he will be easy to acquire.
Mims broke out in a big way to start the season even though he was only a part-time player. He led the Broncos in receiving up until the middle of the season and after a couple of blow-up games, he started rising up the dynasty ranks, but then he seemed to just disappear. More recently, his snap share has been going up, which has led to some targets and a couple of receptions, but nothing like the beginning of the season. That quiet period has left Mims as a forgotten young player with a lot of upside. The Broncos could easily move on from Jerry Jeudy, moving Mims up to number two in the pecking order, with the potential to move even higher.
Pivot Up
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets
Ty Chandler and 24 third = Marvin Mims
This would be the perfect type of trade for a rebuilder, especially if you can use a contender’s third rather than your own. Chandler isn’t much more than a throw-in and a handcuff and a third-round pick is not much to add for a player who has flashed like Mims has.
Same Tier
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the Same Tier of valuation, in a straight-up swap deal
Joe Mixon = Marvin Mims
There is probably a handful of aging RBs who you could use to make this trade, and Mixon might be at the top of that list, but I wouldn’t hesitate to make this deal. Of course, you can always ask for something on top, but in the grand scheme of things, this is the exact kind of move you want to make with a 27-year-old running back who’s on a contract that is easy to get out of in the off-season. If you’re playing the value game, there’s a very good chance that Mims will be worth more than Mixon during rookie drafts, for potential trade-ups.
Pivot Down
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset
Mike Evans = Marvin Mims and a 24 second
Evans has had a resurgent year, but he is still a 30-year-old free agent, and there is no guarantee that he will fit with his next QB as well as he has with Baker Mayfield. That being said, Evans still has quite a bit of value for a contending team. This trade allows you to have Mims as more of a throw-in, rather than asking for him straight up. The second-round pick gives added security in case Mims never reaches his potential.
SUMMARY
Ultimately, all of these trades are going to come down to your team and who is available in your league. Hopefully these examples at least give you an idea of what to look for and potential going rates for these players. Make sure to let me know of any trades that you’re able to get done and good luck!
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