Dynasty Trending Observations: Jaylen Warren Up, Patrick Mahomes Down, and Joe Burrow Hurt
It’s decision time for dynasty teams everywhere. The trade deadline is upon us and managers have to decide whether to go for it or go for next year. Below are a few of the trends that could shape that process.
Say It Ain’t So, Joe
Joe Burrow is now slated to miss 14 games in his career.
4 more than “injury prone” Lamar Jackson. pic.twitter.com/SaaN8Lystd
— Lamar Translator (@LJTranslator) November 17, 2023
Houston, do we have a problem? After starting the 2023 season injured, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow will end the 2023 season injured after tearing a ligament in his wrist against the Bengals Thursday. He played in just ten games this season with the injury coming at a time when he and the Bengals were just getting hot. Now Cincinnati will try to make the playoffs with backup Jake Browning.
As mentioned above, this is Burrow’s second significant injury in less than six months which brings back the discussion surrounding his injury history. Recall that Burrow missed half of his rookie season after tearing his ACL and MCL. But he recovered and led Cincinnati to a Super Bowl appearance in his injury-free sophomore season. He then led Cincinnati to the AFC Championship game last season, another where he avoided any major injury. And he was on his way to another deep playoff run this season until Thursday. In all, Burrow has two full, healthy seasons where he nearly led the Bengals to a championship in each; but also has two seasons where he suffered major injuries and derailed Cincinnati’s playoff chances.
Dynasty Impact: For skittish dynasty managers, the injury concerns when it comes to Burrow can play an impact. It could be the difference between merely being a top-ten quarterback or an elite option, especially in superflex leagues.
Burrow entered the league already as a top-ten dynasty asset. His play pushed him into the top five where he stands now and before the after-effects of the injury. 
But the post above raises the question of who could be a better option than Burrow if the injuries are enough to turn you away. Lamar Jackson is certainly one of them; Josh Allen has played in 16 games each of the last four seasons and is on his way to doing so again; The same goes for Jalen Hurts who has played 15 games in each of the two seasons he’s been the Eagles starter.
For Burrow, it’s premature to label him truly injury-prone. He hadn’t suffered a major injury in three years and every indication is he’ll be back to full strength by the time the 2024 season comes around. For dynasty purposes, you can bid with confidence.
Warren Peace
I’m gonna say this again.
No one in the NFL runs harder week after week than Jaylen Warren. pic.twitter.com/wt7b6Vi44u
— Kyle Brandt (@KyleBrandt) November 19, 2023
The writing has been on the wall regarding the Steelers running game for a while. It started before the season as Jaylen Warren was coming off a rookie season that saw him average nearly five yards per carry on just 77 rush attempts. That was compared to then second-year back Najee Harris and his pedestrian 3.8 yards-per-carry on a whopping 272 carries. As the 2023 season wore on, those numbers stayed remarkably consistent for both backs and finally forced the Steelers’ hand when it came to which back got the start. Warren has now started the last two weeks and his production has gotten better – 101 rushing yards on 15 carries in his first start, and 129 rushing yards on nine carries in his second – even though Harris has out-touched Warren in that span.
So we know Warren has been up to the job and that the Steelers should keep feeding him. But what do dynasty managers do about him?
Dynasty Impact: At this rate, Warren is going to be a bona fide top-20 dynasty running back. He’ll supplant former starter Harris with the latter nowhere good enough to be effective in a part-time role.
Before you mortgage the future for Warren, keep in mind his workload on the Steelers. Yes, he’s been super efficient and racking up 100-yard rushing games on about as minimal carries as you would expect. But if he can’t up his involvement in the offense, it’ll be hard to trust him. The Steelers did fire offensive coordinator Matt Canada so there is hope that could change. But still, don’t spend a lot of capital (i.e. a first-round rookie pick) on him. Instead, you can start the conversation (either this year or next depending on your trade deadline) with a second-round pick and go from there.
Patrick Design
Mahomes to the Chiefs receivers after they lost to the Eagles pic.twitter.com/7HRotPByyI
— Josiah Johnson (@KingJosiah54) November 21, 2023
By Patrick Mahomes‘ standards, 2023 is shaping up to be a disappointment. Mahomes is averaging 262 yards per game which would be the lowest average of his career if it holds. He also has ‘just’ 19 touchdowns and is on pace for his lowest touchdown total since 2019. If that wasn’t enough, he’s currently on pace to throw the most interceptions in a season of his career.
For those not following Mahomes’ season, the issue appears to be his lack of reliable pass catchers. He still has tight end Travis Kelce but the choices aren’t great after that. 2023 second-round pick Rashee Rice currently leads Chiefs receivers with 46 targets, 36 receptions and 420 yards. After that, the Chiefs stat lines include the likes of Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney – none of whom have been consistent for Mahomes or fantasy/dynasty teams this season. Despite all that, Mahomes is ‘only’ a mid-to-low QB1 in fantasy scoring. But what does the future look like?
Dynasty Impact: Count me as one of those dynasty players who thought Mahomes would never be unseated as the top quarterback for at least a decade. But if you take into account his 2023 season and couple it with other quarterbacks that are lighting it up – Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts – it’s suddenly not a crazy thought. Mahomes currently sits atop our DLF dynasty rankings but it’s not unanimous.
And to be clear, this isn’t to say Mahomes should be moved if you’re a current Mahomes manager. He’s a hold despite the down season. Despite the peripheral numbers he’s put up this season, he’s still an elite QB1. Furthermore, the Chiefs are likely to add more/different/better pieces to the receiver room before 2024. Ride Mahomes for the rest of this season and beyond.
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