Tactical Transactions: Moves to Make Before Week Ten

2014 is universally recognized as something of a “great rookie reset.” A single class provided fantasy heavy hitters such as Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Brandin Cooks, Devonta Freeman, Allen Robinson, and Jarvis Landry. There were also ancillary pieces like Sammy Watkins, Jordan Matthews, Derek Carr, Kelvin Benjamin, Jeremy Hill, Jerick McKinnon, John Brown, and Logan Thomas. Oh, and of course Jeff Janis. In short, it was a cross-positional dynasty cornucopia.

2015 added on with Amari Cooper, Todd Gurley, Tyler Lockett, David Johnson and Melvin Gordon. 2020 had Justin Jefferson, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Bradon Aiyuk, Jalen Hurts and CeeDee Lamb.

The point is, every so often we see such an influx of talent that it fundamentally alters the dynasty landscape, effectively jamming up the early rounds and potentially yielding talent falling that otherwise wouldn’t. And some crazy how, this year might have them all beat.

Despite some spotty production, Bijan Robinson remains the dynasty RB1. Sam LaPorta has a legitimate argument for the dynasty TE1, with Dalton Kincaid now nipping at his heels after a few productive weeks. Jahmyr Gibbs, Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers are all in their respective RB1/WR1 tiers, or fairly close to them. And oh yeah, now there’s a guy who I’ll discuss below who may soon be the dynasty QB1.

The point is, things move at a lightning pace. There is assuredly room for a measured approach, but when it comes to rookies producing early in their careers the value window shuts quickly. Get in, get out, do what you need to do, but pace may be important!

Disclaimer! As you’re well aware by the fact you’ve come to a website entitled dynastyleaguefootball.com, we’re still taking a long view into account in addition to each player’s weekly (and year-to-date) output. Guidance will continue to take into account a player’s current stature in tools such as DLF’s ADP and rankings, in addition to how he’s performed.

One last note, as I’m referencing DLF ADP and rankings, advice herein is for a 12-team, non-superflex setting with full PPR scoring. Divergent league settings (both for starting positions and scoring) hopefully shouldn’t render this advice as not actionable, but it’s an important disclaimer nonetheless.

With that preamble in hand, here are the tactical transactions you should consider before week ten:

Buy (All Teams/Contending Slant) – Saquon Barkley, RB NYG

Week 9 Line: 16-90-0, 3-23-0 (4 targets)

Barkley’s NFL odyssey is well-chronicled, having gone from stud player in his first two years to an injured and inefficient pair of campaigns in years three and four, finally followed by something of a rebirth in year five (2022). This year had been a little of everything – he’s put forth solid (if unspectacular) numbers while having missed time due to an ankle sprain, but 2023 now firmly presents one stark difference. Barkley is the only show in town on offense.

Darren Waller is on Injured Reserve, with top two quarterbacks Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor joining him (the former sadly for the remainder of the year after tearing his ACL). Subsequently the “passing offense” has barely crested 200 total yards over the past two weeks, rendering all pass catchers unreliable. And despite this lack of aerial cover, Barkley has not only managed to survive, but has actually thrived.

During this period he’s had 61 opportunities, including a massive 52 carries where he’s averaged a respectable 4.2 YPC. He’s also chipped in six receptions, albeit for a mere 23 yards. He hasn’t gotten into the end zone, which isn’t terribly surprising given the overall ineptitude of the offense, but that’s been the only black mark.

Barkley is now a late third-round pick in startup drafts, meaning there’s room for growth. Still only 26 years old though perhaps having some “city miles” on him, and more importantly likely on the outs with the Giants following this season, Barkley represents a solid “buy” for all teams. However, given the fact he’s still playing and playing well, and carries some solid value, he’s probably better utilized by contenders. The below represents a sneaky example where you could be gaining fantasy production while not losing much dynasty value.

Buy (All Teams/Rebuilding Slant) – CJ Stroud, QB HOU

Week 9 Line: 30 for 42, 470-5-0 (10 rushing yards)

In the vein of “Simpsons did it,” I’m sure there’s precedent for what Stroud’s accomplishing this season. But to be playing this immaculately on a team that went 3-13-1 last year en route to paying the iron price for pick 1.02, and also being fantasy-relevant as the QB8 on the year – there’s not anything that immediately springs to mind for me.

As I’m sure you’ve riddled out by now, Stroud is the player I referred to in the article’s introduction. Already the QB10 per the October ADP, I’d expect a meteoric rise over the coming months. And while it sounds like a hot take, dynasty QB1 should absolutely not be out of the question – sure, Stroud’s pace could slow this year, but let’s play Devil’s Advocate. What if Houston trades for a Davante Adams-caliber, alpha WR1 type of player over the off-season? Remember, the rookie signal-caller has been putting up numbers with above-average but ultimately complementary pieces in Tank Dell, Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. He’s turned Noah Brown into a relevant player. What if Houston goes all in with their stud quarterback on his rookie deal and simply loads up elsewhere? He could truly go nuclear.

He doesn’t add much value with his legs, but he hasn’t had to. He’s essentially been a better version of rookie year Joe Burrow, and we’ve seen how his value took off. The below might seem like an inferno-level take, but fortune favors the bold. Even with his ridiculous 470-yard performance, Stroud’s cost could still rise.

Though it’s not my personal position, if you believe we’re witnessing aberrant (if not fluky) play out of Stroud, this is a great time to cash out and maximize value.

Sell (Rebuilding Teams) – Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA

Week 9 Line: 21 for 34, 193-1-0 (7 rushing yards)

On perhaps the other side of the ledger from Stroud sits Tagovailoa. Despite having some of the best weapons in the league at his disposal, he’s been mired in something of a mini-slump following a hot start to the year. To be clear, we’re talking about the QB4 thus far, so I understand that nits are being picked. But two of his last three performances resulted in sub-15 point games, and on the year he’s still been maddeningly inconsistent with four contests of 18.8 points or fewer to couple with his eruptions.

Continuing, though his completion percentage has gone up, his other numbers including YPA, TD:INT ratio and fumbles are actually worse than last season. He still leads the league in passing yardage, but his numbers are largely buoyed by a week one explosion against the Chargers, along with statistical compilation against four teams (five games) with a combined eight wins. The Dolphins can only play the schedule put in front of them, but Tagovailoa was notably stymied versus the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs.

I’m not throwing him on my trade block with panicked pleas to come and claim him from my roster, but it’s at least a conversation. Even more so than with the example trade of Patrick Mahomes above, I’d be smashing “accept” on the Stroud side here. Rebuilding teams could also consider cashing out for a draft pick if they have another player to slot in at the position.

Quick Hitter

Buy (Contenders) – Gus Edwards, RB BAL

Week 9 Line: 5-52-2

Doing his best version of a slower Raheem Mostert, Edwards has six scores over Baltimore’s past three games. Somewhat inefficient compared to his metronome-like yearly 5.0 YPC, he’s made up for it by receiving double-digit touches in all but two games this year – and if he was needed against the Seahawks, smart money says he would’ve done the same there too.

Keaton Mitchell will get some hype, but hype has never been Edwards’ game. Keeping fantasy owners happy but routinely outproducing his dynasty stature is. To shore up my RB2 spot, I’d be curious to see if something like the below could get the job done.

Priority Waiver Add (All Teams) – Ty Chandler, RB MIN

Week 9 Line: Did Not Play

The fantasy football gods couldn’t even give me seven days before making me eat my own words from last week’s column, when I stated “Excepting the most peculiar of scenarios, I generally advise against hanging onto the third running back on a poor offense.” This was in relation to Broncos’ ball carrier Samaje Perine, not Vikings second-year player Chandler, but I would have given the same advice regardless (and in fact have dropped Chandler already in the lone dynasty league I owned him). But now it’s time for a 180.

I don’t get the sense the Vikings are terribly enamored with Chandler, given his dwindling playing time since their acquisition of Cam Akers. Perhaps more importantly, Minnesota clearly isn’t infatuated with erstwhile starter Alexander Mattison either, judging by the trend in his playing time and despite the fact Akers wasn’t exactly blowing the efficiency roof off. But with Akers’ injury, the team’s RB2 position is open for business once again, and the NFL trade deadline is in the rearview mirror, leading me to believe Chandler is the sensible fill-in.

Snap data courtesy of 4for4.com.

Don’t expect too much, given the fact Chandler has already been mothballed once. This likely makes him a better add for rebuilding squads, who should have room at the ends of their benches for lottery tickets. But even though I’ve been out for weeks now, Chandler might just be pulling me back in.

Priority Drop (All Teams) – Isaiah Spiller, RB LAC

Week 9 line: Inactive

I’m going back to the well here. Spiller only has 12 carries on the year, and 30 carries in his two seasons in the league, all of which have amounted to a putrid 68 yards. He’s caught 100% of his six targets, but only for 33 additional yards. Though he received reasonable draft day capital as a fourth-round pick last season, he’s remained buried on the depth chart to the point where he’s not even playing on Monday Night Football.

There’s no upside here. You can do better at the end of your bench, and Spiller should spill off of your roster.

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