Dynasty Fantasy Football Takeaways: September
As October rolls around and we’ve made it through the first four weeks of the 2023 NFL season, let’s look back on some of the things we learned in September.
The offseason was spent analyzing, projecting, and ranking based on perceived opportunity, talent level, and a variety of other factors. Once the games transition from paper to the actual field we begin to see what we got right and wrong.
This is no truer than in ambiguous situations. So, let’s look at some of those situations to see what we learned in September.
Kenneth Walker is the bell cow in Seattle
The Preseason Consensus: The Seahawks were expected to employ a committee backfield featuring second-year star Ken Walker and highly drafted rookie Zach Charbonnet.
The 2023 NFL Draft saw the Seattle Seahawks kill the dynasty values of two running backs with one draft pick. The drafting of UCLA running back Zach Charbonnet seemed to signal the death of any hope that either Charbonnet or incumbent Ken Walker would ever be a bell cow.
By all accounts, this backfield was expected to be a split with Walker slightly edging out the rookie for touches. This caused both players to fall in fantasy drafts as neither was expected to have standalone value in redraft or dynasty in their current situation.
That hasn’t been the case. Through four weeks, Walker has amassed 73.5 PPR fantasy points and is currently ranked as a top-ten running back. Conversely, Charbonnet has a grand total of 17 fantasy points and is currently ranked outside the top 60 at the position. This one hasn’t been a committee, not even close. It’s been all Walker and shows no sign of stopping.
Rookie tight ends can produce
The Preseason Consensus: Rookie tight ends have traditionally been regarded as fantasy poison and this draft class was no different.
Avoid tight ends early in their career. Throughout history, even the highest-profile rookie tight end has struggled to produce for several years. The best of the best, Travis Kelce was no exception. So, why then, are we expecting this rookie class to be different?
Four games into the 2023 NFL season and Sam LaPorta looks to be the rookie breakout many thought Kyle Pitts would be. So far, LaPorta has scored 10 fantasy points or more in all four of his games. He currently sits as TE2 on the season and has been a breath of fresh air in a scarce tight-end landscape.
Luke Musgrave has paled in comparison to LaPorta, but he too has produced solidly for a rookie. He currently ranks as a low-end TE2 for fantasy, but he has shown signs of immense future potential.
The Texans’ offense is exciting
The Preseason Consensus: The Texans might have the worst offense in the NFL and could be in line for the Number One pick in the draft. They are all undraftable, except Dameon Pierce.
No one would have believed me if I had said that the Houston Texans were going to be one of the most potent offenses in the NFL in September, but that’s the case.
The trio of young offensive stars has been on fire for the Texans to this point. Led by Stroud, Nico Collins, and rookie Tank Dell have been elite.
Stroud has recorded 250 yards or more in three of four games, eclipsing the 300-yard mark in two of those games. He has also thrown for two touchdowns in three straight games. Stroud has the makings of an elite quarterback on a much-improved offense.
Dell and Collins have taken turns putting up monster games as both receivers have scored two or more touchdowns and both have a 145-yard receiving game on the year. This offense looks scary good right now.
The Rams’ youngsters could be league winners
The Preseason Consensus: The Rams could be in contention for the Number One pick with Houston and their offense could be just as bad, outside of Cooper Kupp.
As the season kicked off, the projections were grim in Los Angeles. If you had told fantasy managers that this team would have the WR5 and RB4 in fantasy points no one would have believed those players would be Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams.
Williams has six total touchdowns in September and has been a waiver-wire gem to those who got him. He has 18 or more ½ PPR fantasy points in three of four games in 2023 and has been a league-winner to this point.
Nacua hasn’t had the touchdown upside that Williams had but he has had more than 120 yards receiving in three of four games and he may be the only player in fantasy who has been a bigger hit off the waiver wire than Williams.
There is likely no other duo that has seen their dynasty stock rise more than Nacua/Williams. They have gone from waiver wire obscurity to top-20 assets at their position.
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The Bengals are fantasy landmines
The Preseason Consensus: The Bengals have a condensed opportunity share and have four elite fantasy assets that are potential league-winners in 2023.
The Texans and Rams are piling up fantasy league-winners, so naturally, the Cincinnati Bengals have been fantasy football poison. That’s just how the NFL script drew it up, I’m sure.
Joe Burrow has dealt with a legging leg injury all season and it has shown in his play. He currently sits as QB31 in scoring and has totaled less than 10 points in two of four games.
Burrow has been so bad through September that it has seen two of the safest projected receivers fall outside the top 24 at the position. Both Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase have struggled and right now are absolutely destroying fantasy teams everywhere.
Chase has topped 13 fantasy points only once this season, while Higgins has scored less than four points in three out of four games.
This has been an exciting and chaotic start to the 2023 NFL season. It certainly hasn’t gone how anyone thought it would and each week seems to hold more insanity than the previous. Check back in after Week 8 to see how things changed in October.
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