Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired
Standing still is the fastest way of moving backward in a rapidly changing dynasty landscape. The best dynasty teams are the most active in looking for ways to add value to their dynasty rosters, as part of a continuous process.
The Dynasty Targets Acquired series focuses on making dynasty buys to improve your roster, heading towards one of two key destinations – contending to win a dynasty title in 2023 or rebuilding for a dynasty title challenge in 2024. Each article in the series will highlight a dynasty buy for both contenders and rebuilders – with three trade ideas based on the DLF Trade Analyzer: Pivot Up, Same Tier or Pivot Down.
Buying as a contender is all about winning the title now, whilst leaving the window open to compete again year after year. Buying as a rebuilder is all about making the right trades to maximize roster value next season and become a contender for a dynasty championship.
TIME CONTEXT AND STRATEGY
As the start of the fantasy season approaches, trading can be difficult as the majority of the league thinks they have a contender or a potential contender to win a title. Savvy dynasty managers should always be on the lookout to improve their roster though, the main thing is to be open-minded and don’t assume a trade isn’t there because you think the other manager won’t have interest.
The key to trading during this part of the dynasty calendar is to be the first to market, to set the price, while you have the most potential suitors. Think of it like fishing: right now you have a pond full of fish, and it’s easier to catch one now than in a couple of months when half of the fish have already been caught. You don’t want an extortionate price setting the market otherwise you’re in a tough position to bargain and get a good value trade deal.
Go fishing in dynasty leagues now, whilst there’s plenty of fish available. Credit: Sports Illustrated
CONTENDER BUY
Justin Fields, QB CHI
The Bears signaled their commitment to Fields – trading down from the number one overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft (where they could draft any player at any position) and adding the best weapon of Fields’ career in wide receiver DJ Moore via a trade with the Panthers.
In Fields’ profile, I see upside for growth as a passer from an efficiency and volume perspective – much like Jalen Hurts from 2021 to 2022, where the Eagles went from 29th to 23rd in pass plays per game, despite several blowout victories and playing many games with a healthy lead, relying on rushing. Moore is an excellent addition, and his presence should lead to a higher passing volume – much like the Eagles with their trade for AJ Brown ahead of the 2022 campaign.
Many dynasty players overlook how outstanding Fields was as a passer during his time at Ohio State. Coming out of the same draft class as the much-heralded Trevor Lawrence, Fields was statistically a better passer and arguably facing a tougher schedule than Lawrence. Metrics support the elite college pass production which Fields produced, with 98th percentile college QB rating and 84th percentile college yards per attempt, as per Player Profiler.
Fields has yet to hit similar heights in the NFL, albeit through a tough situation with limited weapons and poor offensive line play. The Bears continued to support Fields this off-season with the first round draft selection of offensive tackle Darnell Wright. The fact that the Bears have invested in the two most important supporting positions for Fields (wide receiver and left tackle) provides great hope for his long-term job security and fantasy production.
Trying to win a dynasty title is all about finding elite production and gaining an edge at multiple positions versus the competition. In competitive leagues, finding a player who can finish number one overall at the position in any season is huge – see the rise of Hurts in 2022, both from fantasy output and a value perspective.
Is Justin Fields on the same dynasty trajectory as Jalen Hurts from a year ago? Credit: DLF – Jalen Hurts
Pivot Up
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets
- Bryce Young and 2024 second round pick = Justin Fields
Anytime you can add a non-round one draft pick to a rookie in exchange for a potentially elite dynasty quarterback with a top six fantasy season on his resumé and only 24 years old – the deal has to be made. With Young entering the league as a rookie there is a significant amount of risk in his profile as an unknown fantasy commodity. The likelihood he is able to match Fields’ fantasy production this season is basically zero. This is a cheap deal to upgrade into high-end quarterback production.
Same Tier
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the Same Tier of valuation, in a straight up swap deal
- Trevor Lawrence = Justin Fields
Lawrence is the closest player in trade value to Fields – where I’m taking the latter straight up. If both players hit their fantasy ceiling in any one season, Fields absolutely smokes Lawrence. In 2021, Lawrence finished QB8 overall and QB11 in fantasy points per game – aided by five rushing touchdowns on 291 rush yards. For perspective, Fields had eight touchdowns on 1143 rush yards. It would be unlikely Lawrence maintains a similar ratio of touchdowns to rush yards. Also, Lawrence is dependent on a high pass volume (QB7 in pass attempts in 2021 and 2022) for fantasy production. With Fields’ immense rush upside, he possesses a higher floor and ceiling than Lawrence, with this trade an aggressive move to give you an edge at quarterback on a contender.
Pivot Down
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset
- Justin Herbert and 2025 second round pick = Justin Fields, 2025 first round pick, and 2024 fourth round pick
Herbert is a similar archetype to the above mentioned Lawrence – winning with pass volume, minor rush upside, and strong hair game, although Herbert has a QB2 overall finish to his name. Fields over Herbert is a similar argument to Lawrence – the range of outcomes at the top end gives the upside to Fields. Also thinking of the bigger picture, there are concerns about what the Chargers’ offense looks like from as early as 2024 – with questions surrounding whether the likes of Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Gerald Everett will still be there. The pivot down trade to acquire Fields gives an improved yearly ceiling and you bank a liquid asset in a future first round draft pick.
With DJ Moore in town, QB1 overall is the ceiling for Justin Fields in 2023. Credit: Da Windy City
REBUILDER BUY
Kyler Murray, QB ARI
Murray is the perfect target for any rebuilding team, with the window closing fast to obtain him at a good value – currently QB14 via the DLF Trade Analyzer and QB15 at Keep Trade Cut. You have to make the move for Murray now as currently there are likely two or three teams in each dynasty league who view themselves as a rebuilding team – where the price can increase and more competition to acquire as more teams turn into rebuilding during the regular season.
The key to a successful rebuild is to buy or keep assets that will see their value increase in the future – providing the option to cash out at a profit or hold for a further value increase. Also, if you can target players who will score fewer points in the current season to accumulate a better rookie draft pick, this is an ideal strategy – although it does involve usually taking on riskier assets such as rookies or injured veteran players.
In the four seasons to begin his career in the NFL, Murray has provided a top ten fantasy points per game output every year. Murray is one of the few quarterbacks in the NFL who has a realistic chance of finishing QB1 overall in fantasy every season. Coming off a torn ACL injury, Murray’s short-term ceiling is likely not the same as previous years, however a rebuilding team is playing for year two, three etc, hence a more appealing asset to acquire.
Murray is an excellent value at the current market, to be able to acquire a fantasy elite asset at a discount price should be pursued aggressively. Quarterback is the most important position in superflex dynasty leagues – the opportunity to grab a player with a major ceiling does not happen often. Dynasty teams with Murray as their quarterback are likely teams in a position to compete based on his previous track record. Use their need and desire for production now to buy Murray cheaply.
Aside from the minor injury risk, the overall concern comes with the Cardinals being one of the worst teams in the NFL and two excellent quarterback prospects currently at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft – Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. The Cardinals have their own and the Texans’ first round draft picks, where consensus believes they take one of the top two prospects mentioned above. If Murray does move, he’ll have many suitors and a better situation for fantasy than he does currently. Plus, if he stays beyond 2023 you have the prospect of two draft picks making an impact for the Cardinals – maybe even a generational offensive weapon such as Marvin Harrison Jr.
Kyler Murray has a strong history of fantasy production, minus the injuries… Credit: Sleeper
Pivot Up
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets
- CJ Stroud and 2025 second round pick = Kyler Murray
Like the Young trade on the Fields’ pivot up, the move from a rookie unknown commodity to a proven fantasy producer is a logical move – especially in the context of keeping your future first round pick. Stroud is in a tricky situation to begin his career, landing with the Texans and limited offensive weapons. It’s easy to tell a story where Stroud struggles year one, resulting in a price dip entering year two. Conversely, Murray’s value is currently at his floor, adding a future second from two years in the future also allows sufficient time for the rebuild to take place and results in a greater chance of the pick being later in the round. It’s also very likely Stroud has nowhere near the ceiling of Kyler, without being an outlier generational passer.
Same Tier
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the Same Tier of valuation, in a straight up swap deal
- Tua Tagovailoa = Kyler Murray
The main risk in Murray’s profile is the after effects of his ACL injury affecting his dual-threat ability – Tua also has major injury concerns with numerous scary concussions in 2022, threatening to end his career. This trade is all about injury mitigation in the long term, as I believe cautious owners should be treating Tua through a shorter viewpoint in his unique scenario. When both are at peak fantasy performance there is only one outcome on a head-to-head basis – Murray. There will be dynasty owners who don’t see the risk in Tua, making this an ideal same tier trade.
Tiering down from Burrow to Murray gives future draft ammunition and a similar range out outcome. Credit DLF Trade Analyzer
Pivot Down
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset
- Joe Burrow and 2025 fourth round pick = Kyler Murray, 2024 third round pick, 2025 first round pick, and 2025 second round pick
More often than not, I prefer the package side of deals as it often comes with liquid assets which give you flexibility. Many dynasty players have Burrow right up there just outside the top tier, an area Murray has been in before when he was at his peak. On the Murray side of the deal, there is more risk attached, however, the draft picks give you opportunities to make up the difference between the two players. Whilst Burrow gives excellent stability, a rebuilding side should always look to embrace risk as a way of changing a roster’s fortune. If the Kyler owner has a Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, this could be an attractive deal to make.
SUMMARY
Both Fields and Murray hit the archetype for the Konami code quarterback, with immense rushing production – which is vital for a high upside / high floor asset. Acquiring Fields is an aggressive move as this could be a make or break year in Chicago, however, fantasy is all about playing to win as opposed to playing not to lose. The value upside is enormous and the production upside is league-winning material. Acquiring Murray is an easy move to catapult your rebuilding teams into contenders next season. He is the perfect rebuilding target at quarterback, just make sure you make the move at pace as time is running out to grab the bargain of the off-season.
He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.
