Dynasty Duel: Jahan Dotson vs Christian Watson
The Dynasty Duel series focuses on a head-to-head battle between two players similar in dynasty value: to establish the winner and the most favorable asset to own in dynasty fantasy football.
To guide and support my decision on the winner of the duel, I’ll be using my self-created STORM analysis, focusing on five key components impacting player value in dynasty: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
Last time I focused on running, with the battle between D’Andre Swift and JK Dobbins. In this article, I’ll be analyzing some wide receivers. It is a cornerstone position in dynasty, delivering consistent scoring and long-term production, which are vital assets in a genuine dynasty situation.
In the final article of this three-part series, I want to discuss two players who hold an extremely wide range of outcomes, from a disappointing fantasy career to being viable high-end WR2 assets. I’ll be comparing two sophomore players entering their second season in the league, both with question marks but also an enticing profile overall. The Dynasty Duel I’m bringing you is Jahan Dotson vs Christian Watson.
The ‘Mount Rushmore’ high-end WR core is a vital cornerstone in dynasty (Credit: Heritage Daily).
Situation
Washington wideout Dotson had a strong finish to his rookie season – 57 fantasy points over his last four games, compared to 52.8 fantasy points for team-mate Terry McLaurin in the same period. It’s unclear as to who will be the main man moving forward. Add in the underrated when healthy Curtis Samuel and there is a fair amount of target competition in Eric Bienemy’s offense. The biggest question is at quarterback – where former day three pick Sam Howell is an uninspiring selection. As draft capital is a strong indication of talent, logically he is a longshot to be an above-average starter in the NFL, which poses a tricky situation for Dotson. The only positive is that Howell’s projected poor play would put Washington firmly in the race for a star 2024 rookie quarterback like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.
Green Bay’s Watson had a strange rookie season, battling injuries and limited usage, but looked brilliant for fantasy. Aided by an unsustainable nine touchdowns on 48 total touches, Watson was in a great situation to blossom in his dynasty career. The loss of future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers is bound to hurt, however it was really encouraging to see schemed usage in the passing and rushing game. The coaching staff clearly have a role for Watson, with this continuing to grow as he becomes acclimated to the NFL. Injury early as a rookie meant a slow start to his journey overall. Now, he’s the de-facto WR1 in town and despite the downgrade at QB to the fantasy wildcard Jordan Love, the situation in the offense and various types of usage puts him in a spot to build on an encouraging rookie season.
Winner: Christian Watson
Talent
Dotson was selected in round one, pick 16 of the 2022 NFL Draft. During his time at Penn State he produced excellent metrics – 95th percentile college target share and 91st percentile college dominator rating via Player Profiler, highlighting an ability to be the focal point of an offense and deliver high-end production. The rookie production might look shabby at WR51 overall and WR42 in fantasy points per game – however Dotson had a great finish to the year, plus had impressive weeks including half of his games resulting in a top-25 WR weekly finish. Dotson was routinely taken at the back of round one and early round two of rookie drafts last year. Whilst this is similar to Watson, the draft capital and a more prominent, consistent role in the offense indicate strong talent and ability.
Watson was taken in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft – with rumors of the Green Bay Packers wanting to trade up into round one for him. He played at a lower level than Dotson in college, as part of a North Dakota State team featuring Trey Lance, in the FCS. Watson was commonly taken in the late stages of round one in rookie drafts – with consensus he was a more boom-bust prospect than Dotson. While Watson’s fantasy points per game numbers were lower than Dotson, it’s worth noting the majority of his early rookie season he was a role player in the offense that also battled injuries. Once Watson hit the starting lineup his fantasy output was excellent, with nine total TDs and four top-ten WR finishes on the bounce between week 10 and week 13.
Winner: Jahan Dotson
If Jayden Reed is an improvement on Allen Lazard will this be a problem for Christian Watson? (Credit: Reception Perception)
Opportunity
Dotson yet again faces solid competition in the form of veterans Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel – both top 35 fantasy wide receivers in 2022. The addition of offensive coordinator Bienemy from the Chiefs could create a bigger pass volume, yet still there are concerns regarding Howell. Both Dotson and McLaurin are valued very similarly in the market – where there is uncertainty about who will be the leading wide receiver moving forward. The excellent draft capital Dotson received is a strong pull for his involvement and the coaching staff wanting to showcase him – aka be proven right for the selection. McLaurin is tied down for at least the next two years (as per Spotrac), so this is a tandem with certainty over the next couple of seasons. The only question would be if coach Ron Rivera is replaced – it would create a new dynamic to consider for dynasty managers.
Watson also lost his main competition from the 2022 season when Allen Lazard left with Rodgers to join the New York Jets. Where Washington added no further competition for Dotson, the Packers added exciting second-round pick Jayden Reed. Whilst he was a name lower on consensus draft boards – his analytical profile is interesting with early and solid production during his time at Michigan State. It’s fair to say Lazard is a mediocre starting WR, should Reed hit as a typical second-round player this would provide increased target competition for Watson. Throw in the departure of Rodgers and on the surface it looks like the opportunity could worsen. The saving grace is the move at QB to Love, who showed strong rapport with Watson away at the Eagles – albeit on a small sample (two catches, three targets, 78 yards and a touchdown).
Winner: Tie
Risk
Dotson is an interesting player from a risk point of view, with half of his 12 games resulting in a top-25 performance. It also included three games outside the top 80 at wide receiver – showing a risky floor on a week-to-week basis. Factor in seven touchdowns on just 35 receptions, it’s easy to see this touchdown rate is unsustainable. Dotson has parts of his profile that show he can be projected safely as a dynasty asset: first-round draft capital and his market value graph below – highlighting a stable projection with low market volatility, making him less risky than Watson at the market. As mentioned before, there is risk with Howell at quarterback, however this is reduced by the pull of landing a top quarterback in 2024 if Washington has a truly poor season.
Watson had a slow start to his rookie season, battling injuries early on, before seeing starter-level usage in week ten versus Dallas. This was the start of a four-week explosion which saw him score eight touchdowns on 17 touches. While this is majorly impressive from an explosive play point of view, it is also risky as the chance of repeat is effectively impossible and has to be factored into Watson as an asset. For the year, he had 41 receptions and nine total touchdowns, including two rushing. In terms of market volatility, this was huge. Before his true breakout he was valued as WR57 as per Keep Trade Cut and is now currently around the WR20 range. The huge increase makes him a risky asset in case of a significant decrease on the back of poor play or touchdown regression. Add in the concerns of a new quarterback in Love and competition in Reed – Watson holds significant risk as a dynasty asset.
Winner: Jahan Dotson
Market
Dotson is currently the WR30 in DLF July Startup ADP and currently sits at WR26 as per the current market value at Keep Trade Cut, while Watson is the WR21 in DLF July Startup ADP and WR19 at Keep Trade Cut.
Both players are in the same tier in dynasty value. The journey to get there has been a steady progression for Dotson, with a huge spike from Watson – off the back of his mid-season breakout in 2022. Dotson is valued lower than Watson in both ADP and market value – it’s not a huge difference, but currently Watson is considered a more valuable asset to own in dynasty.
Winner: Christian Watson
Overall
Dotson hit the ground running as a rookie, missed time in the middle but ultimately was giving extremely solid production in half of his contests. He was able to carve out a role immediately despite the combination of poor quarterback play and strong target competition. In his profile you can see a clear path of growth with an upgrade over Howell, continued usage, and a strong likelihood his main competition over the next few years is Terry McLaurin (not another first-round pick or big-name free agent).
Watson flashed major potential on limited touches as a rookie. He played at a lower level of competition in college so it was expected there would be a transition period to the pro game. Overall I think he had an above-average rookie season, where he overcame a slow start and exceeded expectations. The main issues with Watson are risk and uncertainty. He has a massive range of outcomes in his future – will he become a target leader on the Packers or best used as an explosive playmaker with volatility?
Ultimately, as a Watson owner, there is a lot of risk you are taking on at his WR19 value – a downgrade from a future Hall of Fame QB in Rodgers, the inconsistent rookie usage, and the addition of target competition (Reed now and possibly more in the future). There can be an argument made for Watson’s enticing ceiling in certain roster builds, however Dotson is a better blend of ceiling and floor. A likely upgrade at quarterback from a 2024 rookie star like Williams or Maye would catapult his dynasty value. Also, add in that his main competition is a soon-to-be 28-year-old McLaurin, and it is clear the dynasty value of these Washington wide receivers are going in two different directions. Finally, a poor season from Love might not mean the Packers are in a position for a significant upgrade via the draft, due to a stronger roster than Washington.
Dynasty Duel Winner: Jahan Dotson
Actions/Trades
Here are a couple of recent trades from the DLF Trade Finder I’d be happy to do:
Buy Dotson:
- Marquise Brown = Jahan Dotson
- Derrick Henry = Jahan Dotson
- AJ Brown = Kyler Murray and Jahan Dotson
Sell Watson:
- Christian Watson and 2025 second-round pick = Amari Cooper and 2025 first-round pick
- Christian Watson = Rhamondre Stevenson
- Christian Watson and Kenny Pickett = Kyler Murray
Also, here are a few trades I would do based on the DLF Trade Analyzer (12-team SF TE Premium):
Buy Dotson:
- George Pickens = Jahan Dotson and 2025 third-round pick
- TJ Hockenson and Jalin Hyatt = Jahan Dotson and Michael Mayer
- Geno Smith and Odell Beckham = Jahan Dotson and Will Levis
Sell Watson:
- Christian Watson = Kirk Cousins
- Christian Watson = Diontae Johnson and 2024 second-round pick
- Christian Watson and 2024 first-round pick = DeVonta Smith and 2025 first-round pick
Watson is one of the most highly volatile assets in dynasty football. The upside is appealing, but there are several pivots you can make with a similar upside but a higher floor. Dotson is a mini version of Watson based on game-by-game volatility, but projects more as a traditional type wide receiver – who could be on a Brandin Cooks/Diontae Johnson-type career trajectory. Try to sell Watson to the Jordan Love owner in your league, spinning the narrative of the small sample together or to a team needing spike week potential. Acquiring Dotson fits any team build in dynasty. He should be very attainable right now – make sure you act accordingly as there is a clear path to dynasty value increase in the next 12 months.
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