2023 Injury Breakdowns: Quarterbacks Returning from Injury

Kyler Murray

Jeff Mueller Posted On July 24, 2023

Every NFL season comes with star players finding their way onto season-ending IR and question marks through the off-season and preseason as they near the following season. This series discusses key details in the player’s current recovery tract and injury projections for the 2023 seasons and for their dynasty value. Let’s dive in.

Kyler Murray, ARI

Murray suffered an ACL tear in December but notably had his surgery delayed until January 3 due to an MCL injury that required time to heal. If he were to play week one, he would be at eight months eight days out from surgery. Is it possible? Yes, it would just be against the odds considering we typically see players return from an ACL reconstruction closer to nine months out. The good news is that he, according to himself in this video, hit 15 mph sprinting.

He’s currently just six months and 16 days out from surgery, so this is a good sign, but he still has 1.5 months to go to be ready. I do believe that Murray has a decent chance of playing week one, but if he’s active I would expect a significant reduction in rushing production for fantasy points. Typical rushing production dip in year one for mobile quarterbacks is between a 25-50% production dip, so Murray will have to make up for his production through the air, and do so without Zach Ertz (more on him in the TE article) and DeAndre Hopkins. Good luck, Kyler.

Note: He is one of the top dynasty buys right now, as he should be able to return to form somewhere between mid-season to end of season, and be fully wheels up for 2024. Buy the discount now.

Matthew Stafford, LAR

Stafford had a pretty rough season last year, both statistically and in terms of getting beat up behind an inconsistent offensive line. His season ended after suffering a spinal cord contusion, which thankfully was just inflammation and did not cause serious long-term issues. Notably, he had entered last preseason with elbow tendinitis and had barely been able to throw entering the season, so it’s big news that all accounts seem to indicate that he is entering this preseason healthy and with more velocity on his throws.

It remains to be seen how he holds up behind a still questionable offensive line, but considering how far he is being faded in drafts due to the negative perception from last year he is turning into an intriguing late-round buy. His risk is baked into his ADP and given his specific injuries, these should not linger or cause issues into 2023. I’m buying as a contender.

Trey Lance, SF

Lance is an interesting case entering 2023, after earning the starting quarterback job in 2022 over Jimmy Garoppolo only to play in a monsoon and then suffer a season-ending ankle fracture in week two. Of note, his EPA as a starter has been worse than questionable starters Desmond Ridder, Kenny Pickett, and even Sam Darnold in his starts in the NFL so far, but it does sound like he has been making great strides in camp. 49ers players have stated that this is the best he has ever looked as a passer. The main question will be, is it enough to beat out Brock Purdy for the starting job?

From an injury standpoint, there shouldn’t be any concern about Lance coming off of the ankle fracture, as given his timeline he should be 100% by now and fully mobile as a rusher. The injury also shouldn’t hamper his passing ability, though there are some other concerns there that have reportedly been somewhat eased after his extensive work with QB coach Jeff Christensen, the same QB coach who works with Patrick Mahomes. Can we expect a bounce-back from Lance? I’m truly uncertain on this point, but I think it’s safe the say that draft capital no longer matters in this situation. Kyle Shanahan will put the best-performing QB in the starting slot, whether that QB was selected as the third overall pick or as Mr. Irrelevant.

Brock Purdy, SF

Purdy notably suffered a UCL tear at the end of the 49ers’ season, putting his 2023 season in jeopardy. The good news is that he was able to have surgery on March 10 involving a UCL repair, versus a reconstruction, which accelerates his recovery to close to six months. When does the 2023 season start? Exactly six months from his surgery date, on the dot. What is important in these details? We know that Purdy has been throwing since May 29th, which was actually several days ahead of schedule before his 12-week timeline on June 3, and has been throwing without pain or setbacks. What we don’t know is his velocity, his distance, his amount of throws, and his accuracy during this entire time, but every indication out of the 49ers camp has been optimistic that Purdy will be ready for week one of the season. This is notable for fantasy, as Purdy lit the fantasy boards on fire on his way to producing the sixth most points per dropback just behind Patrick Mahomes and multiple mobile QBs.

There continues to be debate amongst 49ers Twitter fans as to whether Purdy or Lance will start, and I think one of the most important factors will come down to this: Purdy’s EPA per play was nearly identical to Garoppolo’s, and the 49ers offense was on absolute fire with Purdy at the helm with 32.6 points per game, second in pass EPA per play, third in explosive pass rate, and fourth in drive success. The fact of the matter was, Purdy performed as good, if not better, than Garoppolo and didn’t have the same boneheaded “what are you doing?!” type throws that JG would have per game. He executed the offense to near perfection. You simply can’t start a project like Lance over a quarterback who performed as well as Purdy did if Purdy is fully healthy by week one, especially when you’re in a Super Bowl window that the 49ers find themselves in right now. As much as I love the idea of Trey Lance, Purdy did exactly what Kyle Shanahan has been looking for in his quarterback play. Expect that to continue in 2023.

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Jeff Mueller

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Jeff is a Doctor of Physical Therapy with a specialty as a Certified Speed & Agility Coach. He enjoys outdoor activities such as hiking in Yosemite with his wife and dogs and has been an avid football fan since birth (go 49ers!). He also firmly believes that everyone needs to invest in a home gym with multiple TVs to watch all of the games on Sunday while working out.