2023 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Los Angeles Rams
Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this brand-new series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.
Let’s jump into the Los Angeles Rams!
RISER: Matthew Stafford, QB
The dynasty community and Los Angeles Rams fandom alike were excited to see how Stafford would follow up a career, Super Bowl-winning season. Unfortunately, both groups would be devastated when injuries derailed his 2022 campaign.
CURRENT MARKET VALUE
Stafford is the QB28 and 83rd overall in DLF’s June Superflex ADP.
I’m in complete lockstep with the June drafters in taking Aaron Rodgers, Trey Lance, and Brock Purdy over the Rams quarterback. While Lance and Purdy are competing for the starting job in San Francisco; both are a full decade younger than Stafford. The loser of this battle will be given another chance behind center with another team, possibly as soon as this upcoming season.
Desmond Ridder being valued slightly higher than the former Lion has both its merits and faults. Yes, the second-year Falcon quarterback is younger (read: healthier) and has a more impressive collection of weapons at his disposal. Yet, Ridder’s little to no track record of success could cause Falcons’ fans to chant Tyler Heinecke’s name where Stafford is the Rams clear franchise quarterback (when available).
FUTURE OUTLOOK
In a world full of hindsight bias, it’s easy to forget just how great of a fantasy season Stafford had in his 2021 Super Bowl-winning season in Los Angeles. He was a weekly QB1 in 65% of his starts and was the overall fantasy QB5. You can see why Stafford was QB11 and 19th overall in DLF Superflex ADP from a season ago.
The 2022 season was a disaster for all parties involved in both real and fake football. The Rams’ franchise quarterback entered the season dealing with an elbow injury before suffering a final contusion and missing week ten as well as the final six games of the campaign. Behind a depleted offensive line, Stafford was QB25 through eleven weeks and the defending champions completed a disappointing 5-12 season.
Head coach Sean McVay proudly declared at OTAs that his QB1 has “no limitations” heading into the upcoming season. With only rookie Stetson Bennett and journeyman Brett Rypien behind him on the depth chart, and over $133 million in dead cap over the next two years, there’s no doubt Stafford will be given every chance to succeed.
TRADE OPTIONS/CONCLUSIONS
Both recent deals in Superflex leagues, per the DLF Trade Finder, offer a road map for contending and rebuilding dynasty squads in trade negotiations. A contending superflex squad which finds itself in need of a back-end QB2/depth QB3 should look to deal a younger, upside receiver/running back to acquire Stafford. A player like Jonathan Mingo could be a useful piece to a rebuilding roster.
In that same token, the bottom-dwelling team should accept a straight-up swap of Trey Lance for Stafford immediately. That’s as great of a deal for the team revamping their roster as it is for the championship squad. Even though the San Francisco third-year quarterback may be the odd man out in the Bay Area, it’s a short-sighted move to give up Lance’s long-term upside for Stafford’s career uncertainty.
Your feelings on Stafford for the 2022 season depend on your risk appetite. Any kind of spinal cord injury is serious business for a football player, especially one which caused numbness in his legs. Yet, we’ve seen what a healthy Stafford can do in Sean McVay’s offense. Even a scaled-back version of the 2021 Los Angeles QB could tip the scales in two-quarterback leagues for those chasing a championship. Just be aware of his dangerously low floor.
FALLER: Cooper Kupp, WR
At this time last year, Kupp’s DLF ADP was WR4 and 10.83 overall. Yet, a week ten high ankle sprain that ended his season requiring surgery saw his January DLF ADP crater to WR26 and 49.67 overall. But he has risen up rankings in recent months.
Entering his age-30 season (gasp!), it’s crucial we examine whether you should invest in shares of the Pro Bowl wideout.
CURRENT MARKET VALUE
In June DLF ADP, Kupp is being selected as the WR13 and 21.83 overall.
As will be the theme of this article; your view of Kupp’s value should depend on the state of your roster. In a startup draft, if your goal is to be competitive out of the gate, the LA receiver should be selected before DK Metcalf, Drake London, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Kupp has the pedigree of consistent, elite production (more on that later) which is unmatched by these three contemporaries. However, those taking a productive struggle or more long-term vision should invest in these three men four to nine years his junior.
The most recent DLF Wide Receiver Rankings have our hero slotted in as WR16; four spots behind Metcalf, three behind London, and one ahead of JSN. Youth is the name of the game when it comes to dynasty valuation; especially once a player hits the dreaded 3-0. Yet, this age discrimination should be used as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
While looking at yearly positional rankings are helpful; the true value of a player in head-to-head leagues is their weekly consistency. Scoring 40 points in a single week followed up by three-single digit duds can torpedo your fantasy campaign. Therefore, weekly finishes let us pick out those players who can be counted on week in and week out. Since Matthew Stafford took over under center for the Rams in 2021, Cooper Kupp has finished as a WR1 in over 80% of his games. This kind of weekly consistency is why the LA receiver won many a championship in 2021.
If Kupp is healthy, he’s a top-five option at the position in any given week. Despite the unceremonious end to last season, Sean McVay expects his top wideout to be ready when training camp begins in a few weeks. With two years left before a potential out in his contract, expect Kupp to be an elite option at the position for that time as long as he’s on the field.
TRADE OPTIONS/CONCLUSION
Trading late-first and second-round rookie picks to acquire Kupp is the move for a contending squad. If you’re on the precipice of a title, part with those mystery box rookie picks (whether they are 2023 or 2024) to strengthen your receiving corps. The rebuilding team in this trade should have asked for an additional asset, preferably a young receiver to include with the picks.
While I like the return for the side sending away Kupp in the second superflex trade, including Cousins without getting a young QB with some upside back could be a problem. Again, the contending team acquires a potentially league-winning asset AND shores up their quarterback depth.
Kupp’s hitting of the age milestone and coming back from an injury creates a unique buying opportunity for savvy dynasty GMs. While his overall dynasty value may fall as father time creeps up, his weekly consistency will not. Should the Rams’ wideout return to his 2021 form, you could look back six months from now as this being the move that helped raise your league’s trophy.
LONGSHOT: Stetson Bennett, QB
The events of last season planted seeds of doubt in the dynasty community and Los Angeles Rams franchise on the long-term durability of their signal caller. It would behoove us to dig deeper into who they drafted as his possible heir apparent… Or at least insurance policy.
CURRENT MARKET VALUE
Bennett is being drafted as QB39 and 215.25 overall in June DLF Superflex ADP while going off the board at QB6 and 41.40 overall in DLF May Superflex Rookie ADP.
It’s no surprise to find the former Bulldog being valued in the land of backups in the two-quarterback format. The mock drafters and I both agree Bennett has more upside than fellow clipboard carriers Davis Mills, Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, and Mike White. Yet, I disagree with him being selected before Gardner Minshew. In the short term, I’d much rather have the former Jaguar rostered as he’s much more likely to see the field while the uber-raw Anthony Richardson develops. Most starting quarterbacks in a superflex league holds some value if they are flipped at the right time.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
While going in the fourth round of the draft is not the ideal situation for most quarterbacks, this was on the higher end of the projection. Also, Bennett couldn’t have landed in a better situation with quarterback guru Sean McVay leading the charge.
There’s no need to rehash Stafford’s injury history from above; but the backup quarterback position for the Rams holds both short and long-term dynasty value. Not only will they be one snap away from fantasy relevance in the 2023 season, but one must wonder about Stafford’s career longevity after the serious spinal injury last season. Brett Rypien’s three-year career has been rather pedestrian (four touchdowns vs eight interceptions) up to this point. The former Bronco backbencher is all that stands between Bennett and being QB2 on the depth chart.
TRADE OPTIONS/CONCLUSION
With Bennett practically free in superflex leagues, he’s an intriguing option for rebuilders and contenders alike. Though, I’d tend to covet him more if I’m in the latter; especially if I have Stafford rostered. I’m going to assume the team acquiring the two-time national champion in the two above trades is doing so as an insurance policy to the Rams starter. Kudos to the side sending away Bennett in both deals by really putting the pressure on a reeling Stafford manager. Getting a presumptive starting quarterback and a third-round pick is a nice haul. This highlights the dilemma for contending squads with the LA franchise quarterback; trade from a position of strength/depth for a peace of mind, but try not to overpay. This is MUCH easier said than done and differs from team to team, league to league.
From walk-on in 2017 to back-to-back champion in 2022, Stetson Bennett’s career rollercoaster couldn’t have settled in a better circumstance. He’ll have the opportunity to learn behind a veteran who’s been through the professional ringer with a head coach known for his offensive brilliance. The Rams’ assumed QB2 might have to wait a while to get his chance, but history has shown us he’ll be more than ready to seize the opportunity when it’s presented.
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