Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. This year I’ll be answering questions from you via Twitter, Discord, or the old-fashioned way (via email). Free agency is now far behind us. The 2023 NFL Draft has now come and gone. It’s the quiet season until training camps open, but that doesn’t mean the questions ever stop. While it may be the dog days of summer, and seemingly nothing is going on, this is a great time to evaluate your rosters and see what changes or upgrades can be made.
Oh hey it's Friday. Give me some questions for next week's @DLFootball 📬
— Shanesays (@ShaneIsTheWorst) June 30, 2023
Fant chance of fantasy relevance
Does Noah Fant escape from Pete as a free agent next offseason?
— Pops.eth (@Pops_eth_) June 30, 2023
Noah Fant will be a free agent after the 2023 season, but I’m not optimistic about his future outlook regardless of where he plays. In four seasons, Fant has never finished higher than TE11 in points per game, which he did in the 2020 season when he broke 10.0 PPG for the only time in his career. Though it looked like things were trending in the right direction for Fant with two consecutive 18% target share seasons in 2020 and 2021, Fant saw just an 11% share with the Seahawks last year. While it’s easy to blame Pete Carroll for Fant’s diminished role in 2022, it’s not as if he was crushing during his time in Denver. Over a significant sample size of 47 games, he only saw a 16.9% target share while averaging 9.0 PPG.
Fant simply has failed to live up to his collegiate production profile, absurd physical testing, and first-round draft pedigree. He does have three appealing aspects though, being his age (still just 25 years old) his current ADP of TE24, and the fact he can be acquired for nearly free in trades. I do not expect that Fant will ever matter in fantasy, especially in non-tight-end premium leagues, but as a bottom-of-the-roster player in deep leagues, he’s a fine stash.
The Kincaid Conundrum
Why is Kincaid ranked so high yet we can’t sell him for that value
— Ruben Almada (@Superflexdegen) June 30, 2023
Kincaid’s rookie-only superflex ADP of ninth overall also gives the illusion that Kincaid is a valuable fantasy asset. He’s not. If you don’t believe me, just check out the DLF Dynasty Trade Finder.
In tight end premium leagues, you can use Kincaid to acquire Brandon Aiyuk and Diontae Johnson, but those are WR3s according to DLF’s latest rankings. I’ll repeat that, in tight-end premium leagues, where the value of a tight end is much greater than in a non-premium league, Kincaid gets you a WR3.
So what exactly is going on here? Simply put tight ends, outside of Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Kyle Pitts largely do not matter. At least not enough to pay a premium price to acquire. Additionally, as you already know, the tight end position is an absolute wasteland – so much so that Sam LaPorta and Michael Mayer are also in the top 12 for positional ADP, as is Darren Waller whose 9.4 PPG last year was good enough for him to finish as the TE10.
Kincaid is valuable when viewed through the prism of the tight end position, but the position itself is almost worthless so his true value reflects that. If you can move him to any WR3, do it, if you can move him for a tight end like David Njoku plus a rookie third-rounder, do it.
Left on read
Why can Philly rebuild a bridge before my leaguemates respond to my trade offers?
— Paulywall 🍥 (@Paulywall_) July 1, 2023
Pauly Wall’s question might seem facetious but it’s an issue that plagues too many dynasty leagues. We play in dynasty leagues, partly because we want and crave the activity of fantasy football all year round. But for some reason, a significant amount of the populous fails to engage.
One of the things I’ve learned from years and years (and years) of therapy is that you can’t control someone else’s actions only your own. So rather than trying to change behaviors through shame, how can we foster engagement from our reticent league mates?
First, you can check to see if maybe it’s you and not them. Run your trade offer through the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer to see if you’re at least offering fair value. Not to be a company shill but it’s just something to keep in mind. If you are continually sending offers and no one responds to your offers, maybe you’re sending bad offers. This is not a judgment just a statement. Run your trade offer through the old analyzer to ensure you’re not falling victim to the endowment effect (believing an item you own is more valuable than the market does).
You can also instigate conversation by adding a message to your trade offer if you’re on MFL, or sending them a DM on Sleeper after the trade offer is sent. It shouldn’t be a treatise on why your offer is the greatest of all time, but something simple like: “hey if this doesn’t work just let me know”. I am not a fan of dialogue during trade negotiations but human instinct is to respond to an open-ended request, and even I respond when someone messages me directly. Even if the response is “I’m not interested in moving player X”, you’ve started a conversation to build on.
The last thing to remember: remain aggressive. I rarely or ever feel the urge to complain about the lack of response or lack of activity in my leagues, because I remain active at all times. What I’ve found is that being an active, if not the most active member of my leagues, is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Your activity invites more activity, as other league managers know you are always up to make a move.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Pivoting Away from Jonathan Taylor - August 29, 2023
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- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Late-Round Stashes and More - August 15, 2023