Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Kyle Pitts, Brock Purdy and Roster Construction
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. This year I’ll be answering questions from you via X, Discord, or the old-fashioned way (via email).
We are now just weeks away from point-scoring season, with real-life football to digest and analyze with preseason games in full swing. All your work during the off-season is now ready to pay dividends. But the work never stops in dynasty so we have a few more weeks of mailbag questions to help you grind for the top.
Feels like it's mailbag time. Hit me up with questions for the next @DLFootball mailbag
— Shanesays (@ShaneIsTheWorst) August 19, 2023
It’s the Pitts
What’s your opinion on what to do with Kyle Pitts at this point?
10 t/start 9/1 QB/ full PPR /flex spots, no require TE spot.
— Jake (@Ferderko) August 20, 2023
Every week this off-season I’ve gotten at least one Kyle Pitts question. I get it, I’ve gone back and forth on Pitts all summer myself.
He entered the league with so much pedigree and became just the second tight end to put up 1,000 receiving yards in his rookie season. Even if last year was disappointing, with a lack of production and an injury, there’s still reason for optimism with Pitts securing a 27% target share, second highest among tight ends.
As Matt Price has noted before, tight ends being first or second in their teams in targets are where elite tight end seasons come in, and there’s no reason to believe that Pitts is any further down the target totem pole than second.
Though the Falcons were woeful with Marcus Mariota under center averaging just 23 pass attempts per game (and as an Eagles fan forced to watch him in preseason action I get it), they improved to bad with Ridder playing the part and they averaged 28 pass attempts per game. And if Friday night was any indication (nine pass attempts in a little of a quarter with Ridder under center), the Falcons could improve to the league average in pass attempts next season.
But with finishes of TE11 in his rookie season, and TE22 in his sophomore season, some of us are already ready to move on from Pitts. It’s an understandable instinct but one that ignores the upside and positional advantage that Pitts could still provide. This is even further amplified when considering the construct of this questioner’s league, 10 teams and starts 9 with one starting quarterback. One player can have an out-sized impact in relation to a deeper league. Especially in this format, even without a required tight-end starter, I’m willing to take the risk associated with getting a true hammer. Unless I can move Pitts for a top-nine wide receiver, or a top-four running back I’m not likely to move off him in a deal.
The DLF Dynasty Trade Finder lets us plug in this league’s settings to see if we can locate any deal Pitts has been involved in. The first thing I found is that just 14 trades with these league settings have been made in the past 12 months. That fact alone probably means you’re unlikely to be able to move Pitts.
The first two deals are more than fair. Getting back Travis Kelce, who likely has at least one more TE1 season in him, is a good return for Pitts but considering the ten-year age gap I would hold onto Pitts here.
Expanding the search criteria shows a larger universe of trades. The below trade giving up Pitts for a 2024 rookie first and Jameson Williams, in a start 9, holds absolutely no appeal.
Perusing the Trade Finder there are very few trades that I would make involving Pitts. I like to look at things in risk/reward scenarios. Moving Pitts now wouldn’t net you a fantastic return, so what do you really lose out on if he does ultimately disappoint? Conversely, if Pitts does turn into a top-three tight end, the value to your roster is much greater than the mid-tier players he’s (usually) fetching in return. Again if you can get an absolute hammer for Pitts then move him, otherwise hold tight.
Roster Construction
Whats a proper bench construction in a 12 TM sf st 10
.5TEP ?— Æ Blind (@blindside_70) August 20, 2023
One note: I followed up on this question and was told this league has a 25-man roster, but not the starting requirements. I’ll assume it’s QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Superflex, Flex, Flex for our purposes.
At quarterback, I like to roster four-five quarterbacks at a time. Two ‘set it and forget it’ starters, one bye week/injury fill-in, and one or two quarterbacks I’m always looking to deal to another team if anything befalls their rosters.
Tight end, I want two. That’s it. A starter and a bye week/injury fill-in, and considering the WORP distribution at the position, I might just roster one starter and stream if I need a spot start.
My wide receiver room is going to depend on how the room is constructed from a production standpoint. If I have a couple of top 15 wide receivers in the room, I’m willing to go thin, and roster five or six wide receivers. If I have nothing but back-end WR2s or WR3s, I’ll look to be a bit deeper at the position, with as many as eight wide receivers, and rotate accordingly based on matchup. I don’t like being forced to make decisions, so my more likely build is going to be top-heavy with the ability to start four wide receivers in any week.
The rest of my roster is nothing but running backs. ‘Any running back on a 53’ is the mantra of Scott Connor and that mantra always applies. The attrition at the position, the ability to know which ones to start (compared to similarly tiered wide receivers), and the ability to flip for any future rookie pick, make running backs the perfect asset to load up on for your rosters.
It’s Brock’s World
Discuss Brock Purdy's chances of being the 49ers starter the entire year. The drumbeats are getting louder about Lance and Purdy feels like Foles v2.
— Troy VanRiper (@ffyinzer) August 20, 2023
Outside of injury, Brock Purdy is the San Francisco 49ers starter for the foreseeable future. Though I guess Kyle Shanahan did give at least one more out.
“Brock Purdy would have to melt in practice to lose the starting job” means nothing because Purdy will melt in real games and lose the starting job
— kev mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) August 15, 2023
If there was any doubt entering preseason action that the starting gig belonged to Purdy, there’s none left now. In Trey Lance’s first preseason action he was objectively bad. He did drive the 49ers to a victory in Saturday’s preseason tilt against the Broncos, but that also means he was playing in the fourth quarter with players like Ronnie Bell. He’s fighting for the backup role.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Pivoting Away from Jonathan Taylor - August 29, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Kyle Pitts, Brock Purdy and Roster Construction - August 22, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Late-Round Stashes and More - August 15, 2023
