2023 Dynasty Division Outlook: NFC North IDP
This year, we’re bringing you a new series covering each NFL division’s dynasty fantasy football outlook. We’ll bring you an overview of each team, highlight the best and worst positional groups, and make some cool predictions for the division as a whole. Let’s jump into it!
NFC NORTH IDP OUTLOOK:
CHICAGO BEARS
The Chicago Bears struggled mightily on defense last year, and then they traded away their best player, sending Linebacker Roquan Smith to the Baltimore Ravens mid-season. The Bears finished 29th in yards allowed and 32nd in points allowed in 2022. The Bears entered the 2023 off-season with nearly $75 million of cap space, and new General Manager Ryan Poles spent little time signing players. The Bears made a splash by signing T.J. Edwards (LB), Tremaine Edmunds (LB), Dylan Cole (LB), DeMarcus Walker (DE), and Andrew Billings (DT) to help their defense. Adding Edwards (159 tackles) from the Eagles and Edmunds (102 tackles) from the Bills to surprise standout Jack Sanborn, who had 59 tackles in six games after the Smith trade, really fills out their linebacker core.
The Bears must find ways to pressure the quarterback. It’s telling that rookie Safety Jaquan Brisker led the team with four sacks. Brisker had a good first season with 104 tackles, five tackles for loss, and four QB Hits and looks poised to break out in 2023. Fellow rookie Kyler Gordon played well in the slot with 71 tackles and three interceptions. The Bears added Cornerback Tyrique Stevenson and Defensive Tackle Gervon Dexter in the second round of the draft and Defensive Tackle Zacch Pickens in the third round to help bolster a young defense.
DETROIT LIONS
The Detroit Lions were a fun team to watch last season if you are a lover of points because every game was high scoring. The Lions were last in the league in yards allowed and tied for 28th in points allowed. The secondary was a major issue. The Lions added Cameron Sutton (Steelers) and C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Eagles) in free agency and drafted Nickelback/Safety from Alabama Brian Branch, who was considered the top safety in the draft. Many people scorched the Lions for drafting off-ball Linebacker Jack Campbell with the 18th-overall pick of the first round. But for IDP purposes, Campbell comes into a perfect situation to make an immediate impact.
2022 second-overall pick Aidan Hutchinson finished second in the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year voting after tallying 52 tackles, nine TFL, 9.5 sacks, 15 QB Hits, and an impressive three INTs. Fellow rookie James Houston didn’t play until Week 11 but was able to get eight sacks, seven TFLs, and 11 QB Hits in only seven games. With Hutchinson and Houston and all the new additions, the Lions defense is headed in the right direction; what kind of strides it makes this year will be telling.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Green Bay Packers have the best defense in the NFC North, and it probably isn’t remotely close. When looking at top-end IDP talent within the division, they probably have more players than the rest of the division combined. The Packers have been loading up on defense in recent drafts and currently have seven first-round picks on their two-deep depth chart. That number is pretty incredible in this day and age. Devonte Wyatt, Kenny Clark, and T.J. Slaton make up the best front in the division. Quay Walker had a fantastic rookie season next to De’Vondre Campbell and are IDP studs. Rashan Gary (32 tackles, six sacks, 12 QB Hits in six games) is coming off a season-ending injury but has the ability to be a pass-rushing monster when healthy and creates a good pash rush duo with Preston Smith (59 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 20 QB Hits). Cornerback Jaire Alexander and Safety Darnell Savage Jr. lead the secondary. Jonathan Owens comes over from the Texans after having his most productive season with 125 tackles.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Minnesota Vikings defense was abysmal last season. Safety Harrison Smith, Defensive End Danielle Hunter and Linebacker Jordan Hicks are veterans who have been IDP champions for years. The rest of the defense, ugh. The Vikings were 27th in Defensive DVOA, 28th in points allowed, and 31st in yards allowed. The Vikings have made a lot of changes to their defense, hoping to improve this unit. They are hoping the additions of Marcus Davenport (Saints) on the edge and Byron Murphy (Cardinals) at nickelback will help. The team is also hoping for big second seasons from Safety Lewis Cine, Cornerback Andrew Booth, and Linebacker Brian Asamoah, the team’s top three draft selections from 2022.
POSITIONAL GROUP RANKINGS:
DEFENSIVE LINE:
- Packers: A-
- Bears: C+
- Lions: C
- Vikings: D+
The Packers have the best defensive front in a division that is fairly weak at the position. Devonte Wyatt didn’t play a ton as a rookie, but he was effective when he got the chance. Among all rookie defensive linemen with at least 200 snaps, he had the second-best overall grade and the top pash rush grade. Now he needs to replicate that as a full-time starter replacing the departed Jarran Reed. Wyatt has had a season to learn the system and is looking for a breakout year. Kenny Clark is a two-time Pro Bowler at Defensive Tackle though he slightly regressed against the run. Tedarrell “T.J.” Slaton will start for the first time at nose tackle. The Bears are hoping the signing of DeMarcus Walker can help a young group made up of Dominique Robinson, Justin Jones, and rookies Zacch Pickens and Gervon Dexter. The Vikings and Lions were two of the worst defensive fronts in the league last year, and they didn’t do much to improve two of the league’s worst groups.
KENNY CLARK career stats:
EDGE – DEFENSIVE END/OUTSIDE LINEBACKER:
- Packers: A
- Lions: A-
- Vikings: B-
- Bears: C-
When he was healthy last season, Rashan Gary was scary good. His pass-rush win rate was 20.9, and he was one of the best pure pass rushers in the league. Can he bounce back and be the same player? We will see. Preston Smith and rookie Lukas Van Ness round out a talented group that has a very high ceiling for the Packers. The strength of the Lions defense was its edge rushers. Rookies Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston combined for 17.5 sacks in 24 games. They were the top two rookies in sacks in 2022. The Vikings need Hunter to be at his best, but he is threatening a possible holdout. They replaced Za’Darius Smith with Marcus Davenport, who had nine sacks in 2021 but just 0.5 sacks last season. If Hunter doesn’t play and Davenport has a similar 2023 as his 2022, the Vikings could have one of the worst pass rushes in the league. The Bears had the lowest sack total in the league last year. The Bears tried to upgrade, but it depends on some of the young guys growing and improving.
2022 ROOKIE SACK LEADERS:
LINEBACKER:
- Packers: A
- Bears: A-
- Lions: B
- Vikings: B
The Packers have had two good seasons from De’Vondre Campbell (242 tackles), including a First-Team All-Pro in 2021. The Packers added Quay Walker in the first round of the 2022 draft. He rewarded them with 121 tackles and showed he has the ability to be great one day. The Bears moved on from Roquan Smith but signed T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds to go with Jack Sanborn. This should be a promising group that could greatly improve the Bears defense and should be decent IDP plays. Alex Anzalone had 125 tackles last season. He is getting some help with the addition of Iowa product Jack Campbell. Campbell should make an immediate IDP impact but could hurt Anzalone’s value. The Vikings have Jordan Hicks returning for his second season, but Eric Kendricks has moved on, creating a huge opening for Brian Asamoah. While the Vikings defense wasn’t good last year, Hicks and Kendricks were great IDP plays. Everything is set up for Asamoah to step in and produce.
DE’VONDRE CAMPBELL career stats:
CORNERBACK:
- Packers: A-
- Lions: B
- Bears: C
- Vikings: C
The Packers Jaire Alexander talks a big game, but he usually backs it up. He was one of the top-rated cornerbacks in the league last season. He had five interceptions, which was second in the league among all cornerbacks, and 14 passes defensed. Quarterbacks had a passer rating of 66.2 when targeting him in coverage. Opposite of Alexander is Rasul Douglas, who has nine interceptions over the past two seasons. Keisean Nixon was the primary slot corner for six games last season and didn’t allow a touchdown during that time. The Lions brought in free agents Cameron Sutton and C.J. Gardner-Johnson and added slot corner Brian Branch in the draft. These veteran additions should improve the secondary in a suspect division. The Bears have three former second-round picks led by Kyler Gordon, Jaylon Johnson, and rookie Tyrique Stevenson. The Bears are going younger at CB, but will they be better? The Vikings are also going younger at CB. Andrew Booth, Akayleb Evans, and rookie Mekhi Blackmon are expected to see playing time along with new addition Byron Murphy.
JAIRE ALEXANDER career stats:
SAFETY:
- Bears: B+
- Vikings: B-
- Lions: B-
- Packers: B-
The Bears feel like they are headed in the right direction, were some good young players on the roster. The best of them might be second-year Safety Jaquan Brisker, who is a breakout candidate in his second year. Eddie Jackson’s experience helped Brisker progress, and they should be a good combination this season. The Vikings have stalwart Harrison Smith still manning the middle of the field. Even at 34 years old, Smith is still playing at a high level. He had 85 tackles and five interceptions and is only a year removed from being named a Pro Bowler. Lewis Cine and Camryn Bynam are fighting for the other safety spot. The Lions have Tracy Walker and Kerby Joseph at the safety spots, two players who are probably better IDP scorers than they are real-life football players. The Packers got respectable seasons out of Rudy Ford and Darnell Savage. The safety position is the Packers worst position, but it still matches up talent-wise with the rest of the division.
HARRISON SMITH career stats:
DIVISIONAL PREDICTIONS:
MVP: T.J. EDWARDS, LB CHI
While there are some second-year players that could have big years and vie for the Division MVP (etc., Hutchinson or Walker), the safe bet is T.J. Edwards. The Bears look like they might have their next great linebacker. After trading Roquan Smith to the Ravens last season, they signed Edwards away from the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason. Edwards was a top 10 IDP performer last season, and I wouldn’t expect much regression in 2023. Edwards might not be the most exciting player, but he will have many opportunities to make plays for the Bears.
LVP: MARCUS DAVENPORT, EDGE MIN
Marcus Davenport has name recognition and heads to a new shiny team, which should have managers in your league jumping at the chance to grab him. But the former Saint is coming off the worst season of his career, where he had only 29 tackles, 0.5 sacks,s and eight QB Hits in 15 games. Davenport had nine sacks in 2021 but only has 12.5 sacks in his other four seasons combined. He also has never played a full season in his five-year career. He screams pass to me. There are so many better options available.
MOST IMPROVED: BRIAN ASAMOAH II, LB MIN
After spending his rookie season mostly learning, Asamoah is prime for a breakout season next to Jordan Hicks. Eric Kendricks is now gone to the Chargers, giving Asamoah prime playing time. The former third-round pick out of Oklahoma has a chance to be an IDP stud at a low price. He is a buy-now candidate.
BIGGEST STEAL: JAQUAN BRISKER, S CHI
The Bears Jaquan Brisker is still under the radar in IDP circles. Brisker had an eye-opening rookie season on a terrible defense that has added more talent in front of him this season. Better players in front of him should mean more freedom to move Brisker around to make plays. He most likely is the cheapest to acquire that he will ever be, so get him now before it’s too late.
BIGGEST BUST: TREMAINE EDMUNDS, LB CHI
While he is a super-talented athlete, the cost always seems a lot more than the production. Now he moves from the Bills to the Bears. With TJ Edwards and Jack Sanborn flanking him, those tackle machines might make it tough for Edmunds and garner many of his own. I like the player; I just do not like the production cost.
WAIT FOR IT: LUKAS VAN NESS, DL GBP
Nicknamed Baby Hercules, Van Ness has a ton of strength and power. The issue is the former Iowa standout never started a game in college. He did put up good production per his overall snaps, but he didn’t receive a full load. The Packers are loaded upfront, and he will have to wait his turn and learn behind players like Devonte Wyatt and Kenny Clark. He will not have much fantasy impact this season, but he could be one of the next stud interior linemen in the league.
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