2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Xavier Hutchinson

Xavier Hutchinson

Aaron St Denis Posted On May 12, 2023

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.

SITUATION

Name: Xavier Hutchinson

Position: Wide Receiver

Pro Team: Houston Texans

College Team: Iowa State

Draft Status: Round six, Pick 205 overall.

Hutchinson found himself in a murky yet exciting situation. He will join the second overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft CJ Stroud in hopes of developing the new look roster into a formidable offense. He joins a young wide receiving corps featuring fellow 2023 rookie Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, selected in the third round, and 2022 rookie John Metchie. Metchie battled Leukemia throughout his rookie season and could not take the field. With a seemingly clean bill of health for 2023, Metchie should make for a solid trio of first-year wide receivers that could be surprisingly productive.

The Texans also have 2022 day three rookie sensation Dameon Pierce returning as the starting running back, and this is shaping up to be an exciting, young team with loads of fantasy football potential.

This landing spot can be seen as both a negative and a positive. As far as redraft leagues go, avoid the Texans at all costs. When the most experienced player on your offense is a sophomore running back selected on day three, it figures to be a bumpy year. The Texans will have their odd games of productivity, but this figures to be a challenging year as the youngsters learn the ropes.

The positive spin on this landing spot is obvious. This offense is up-and-coming and is loaded with youthful talent. All three of the top receivers on Houston are essentially rookies and have never played in an NFL game, which leaves room for someone to stake their claim on the Alpha WR position on the team. Robert Woods and Nico Collins are also still in the mix, but Collins has never flashed the ability to produce at an NFL level, and Woods is well passed his prime and should serve as nothing more than a mentor to the young trio. The job of Alpha WR in this lineup should come down to Hutchinson and Metchie. Who wins the job remains to be seen.

TALENT

Xavier Hutchinson Combine Results:

Height: 6’ 2”

Weight: 203 lbs

Arm: 31 3/8”

Hand: 9 3/8”

40-Yard Dash: 4.53 seconds

10-Yard Split: 1.55 seconds

Vertical Jump: 36.0”

Broad Jump: 9’ 8”

3-Cone Drill: 6.91seconds

20-Yard Shuttle: 4.35 seconds

Bench Press: Did Not Participate

Hutchinson has the size and talent to be a prototypical Alpha receiver, but per his testing scores at the 2023 NFL Combine, he doesn’t possess elite athleticism. In fact, in most measurements, he falls in the below-average category. His height and weight measured are slightly above average, scoring in the 61st percentile and 53rd percentile, respectively. Neither measurement is particularly alarming, but for a player whose strength is his size, it is certainly underwhelming.

The scores that are most indicative of agility were below average in scoring. He measured in the 59th percentile on the 3-Cone Drill and a paltry 20th percentile in the 20-Yard Shuttle. As far as speed and explosion go. He tested in the 19th percentile in the broad jump and 57th percentile in the vertical jump. Checking in at the 44th percentile in the 40-Yard Dash and 54th percentile in the 10-Yard Split, he once again is nothing spectacular as far as measurements go.

Hutchinson does not have the measurables to project as an elite receiver. He does, however, have the raw skill and talent to be an excellent long-term project at the NFL level. My best comparison for him is Green Bay Packers receiver Romeo Doubs, both players have a very raw skill set and seemingly unlimited potential. With proper coaching and the right opportunity, both could develop into solid WR2s for fantasy football.

OPPORTUNITY

Houston Texans Depth Chart:

There is a mountain of unrealized value and potential in Xavier Hutchinson. As you can plainly see in the above depth chart from 4for4.com, the football world is sleeping on Xavier Hutchinson. He is currently slotted in as WR10 on the depth chart behind several players I’ve never seen on an NFL field. Hutchinson is going largely unnoticed due to his combine performance and mediocre draft capital.

Hutchinson was not inside any analyst’s consensus top ten among rookie receivers and is definitely at longer odds to be a success. Still, on this roster, there is nothing but an opportunity to thrive if he can step up to meet the challenge. He should have a chance to compete for a vital role in the Texans offense during training camp.

The best long-term receiving option in this offense will be Metchie or Hutchinson and will come down to training camp to see which one steps up and seizes the opportunity.

Overall, the high-end upside is not here for Hutchinson, but given the opportunity in this emerging offense, he could be a more than serviceable WR3.

RISK

Stats from Sports Reference.

Hutchinson is a raw talent with boatloads of potential. Despite never putting up elite numbers, he had solid production in all three years with the Iowa State Hawkeyes. That is the theme with Hutchinson. He will put up solid numbers when he gets the opportunity, but he isn’t going to be elite.

He will require plenty of coaching to aid in his development, and it is going to be more of a long-term project than an immediate payoff. If the Texans’ coaching staff can develop and refine his tools, he could very easily find his way into the WR2/3 landscape.

The archetype of a receiver can be very hit-and-miss. As mentioned previously, Romeo Doubs is the closest comparable I have for him, and while Doubs flashed in his rookie season, he struggled to produce consistently.

Obviously, his measurables are a cause for concern as he lacks agility and explosion, but if he can use his size to his advantage, he will prove to be a worthwhile dart throw in the late rounds of dynasty rookie drafts. Hutchinson may even go undrafted in many leagues, so keep an eye on him to see how he is developing as a young receiver.

MARKET

Hutchinson is way down the rankings in My Fantasy League (MFL) ADP, and I mean way down. He isn’t even being considered in standard five-round rookie drafts, but I don’t believe this indicates his actual value. He is going consistently in the fifth round in many rookie drafts involving sharp fantasy football managers. He certainly has more upside than nearly every name on the chart above.

The market has him going off the board in rookie drafts as WR26, and the only player in that range I would consider over his is Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver, Trey Palmer.

The bigger picture is certainly vague. He is a long shot and a dart throw to ever amount to anything in the NFL, but I chose to focus on his size and opportunity in the Texans offense to buy in on Hutchinson at a nearly free cost.

The ceiling may not be here for him to be an elite fantasy producer, but if things break in his favor, he can be a useful flex or even WR3. It will all depend on how quickly this young roster takes to develop.

Hutchinson is buried in both rookie and dynasty rankings at KeepTradeCut. He checks in at 41 in superflex rookie rankings and 263 in overall superflex dynasty rankings. Basically, the market has no clue that he exists outside of the true NFL Draft grinders, and he should be free in most leagues to add to your taxi squad.

Hutchinson is unlikely to ever develop into Justin Jefferson. Still, the potential is there for him to be a Brandin Cooks type, a receiver who doesn’t win anyone their league but who will be massively undervalued and who can be a great value and producer for your roster.

The draft capital and combine numbers make it a long road ahead for him, but players with far worse profiles than his have emerged as productive fantasy assets. Overall, this is a dart throw and should be viewed as such. Draft Hutchinson in the last round of rookie drafts or pick him off waivers and stash him on your taxi squad. Just be prepared if he never emerges and stays on your taxi squad.