Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Moves to Make Before Week 17
This one is for all the marbles. For those able to trade during the playoffs, I have the stone-cold nuts for you. Otherwise, you are still prepping for the off-season. Here are five transactions you should consider before week 17:
Aaron Rodgers, QB GB – Buy (Playoffs/Off-Season)
The narrative on Rodgers seems to be changing. He finds himself and the Packers in the thick of the playoff hunt as we approach the home stretch and the matchup is juicy in week 17 as the Vikings come to town. They rank 23rd against opposing quarterbacks and should be inviting to Rodgers as he faces another must-win game in Lambeau. A manager may be prone to sell him if they are not in the playoffs with the uncertainty about his future.
The Move – I would not pay a first-round pick but consider adding a second-round pick along with a filler wide receiver (such as Wan’Dale Robinson or Skyy Moore) to seal the deal. There are many other ways to get there but consider this a play for week 17 and a potential buy-low investment going into 2023.
Pat Freiermuth, TE PIT – Buy (Playoffs/Off-Season)
This one might seem counterintuitive since the Steelers face the Ravens in week 17. It is not an easy match-up. However, the only way you beat the Ravens is through the air and Freiermuth is one of three tight ends (Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews) who ranks in the top eight in market share, targets per route run, yards per route run and air yards percentage. Ultimately, I pegged him as a peak asset but there is a chance he can jump even higher (TE6 in the latest ADP).
The Move – He is an obvious buy in hefty premium formats (1.75 or more) or leagues requiring two starters. However, it is time to start considering Freiermuth a potential position advantage player at a scarce spot with the floor of staying exactly where he is for another few seasons. I would consider moving a wide receiver outside of the top 24 in ADP for him or pivoting up from someone like Greg Dulcich by adding a second-round pick.
Skylar Thompson, QB MIA – Add (Off-Season)
Thompson was less than impressive as the backup/third-string quarterback for the Dolphins in 2022, ranking 53rd out of 56 in terms of EPA per play. However, considering the circumstances, he was an inexperienced rookie drafted to sit and watch behind both Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater forced into action multiple times with minimal reps. I will give him a pass for this season and look forward. With Tua facing his third concussion of the season and Bridgewater a pending free agent, Thompson likely earns backup duties going forward in a system very friendly should his name be called again.
The Move – I am adding him in any leagues he is available. He has made my cut list of quarterbacks I want to carry into the 2023 off-season and I talk more about why on this podcast. He should be added in any superflex league with at least 30 roster spots or a lack of a third or fourth developmental player at the position.
Khalil Shakir, WR BUF – Sell/Drop
You can learn more about Shakir in his post-draft profile. Assessing his rookie season, Shakir has hauled in nine of his 18 targets for 133 yards and a touchdown in thirteen games. It appears he has a role carved out in the future but his rookie usage does not appear to imply it will ever be significant. He grades out as a roster clogger but likely has some value to someone in your league. Take the pick and roster spot.
The Move – The first move is an attempt to sell for a third-round pick. A fourth-round pick would be the bail point. Adding a running back is likely more beneficial than rostering Shakir as I know I can buy back in later if his value rises, without much difficulty given his pedigree. Bet on the outlier until it fully emerges.
Tyrion Davis-Price, RB SF – Buy/Add (Off-Season)
This is definitely a name off-the-radar unless you are box score watching in week 16. Davis-Price played ahead of Jordan Mason and appears to be the backup running back heading into next week. Head coach Kyle Shanahan discussed the potential opportunity and why this is not another Trey Sermon situation. Forget about Elijah Mitchell, he will be on the roster. The team could also draft or sign another running back. Christian McCaffrey is still under contract. The worry about TDP was that he was another whiffed draft pick and the coach made it a point to say that is not the case. I want more shares going into the off-season.
The Move – I would buy for a third-round pick if I can get a two-for-one. Can I buy TDP and Pierre Strong for a single pick? Can I get multiple bites at the apple (at RB) for one of my singular picks? That is how I am looking to add him to deals before the draft season. I will look to buy again if the Niners make additions to their backfield.
Conclusion – Title season is here. Championship week! Last-minute deals are needed if you can still trade, otherwise, continue to focus on the off-season. Do not miss the waiver deadline that may come as soon as games begin on Thursday. Do not have regrets you leave untouched going into the dead period. Good luck in the finals!
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