Dynasty Fantasy Football Target Share: Week 12
Happy Thanksgiving week! Let’s get on with some wide-receiving volume observations I’m personally thankful for.
But first, as always, here’s your weekly reminder that I’m collecting the weekly data and you can find it here.
Now, let’s get on with it.
Los Angeles Chargers
I feel like I should apologize for allowing the potential for vacated targets to be even marginally true. We’ve noted Josh Palmer’s performance before yet also accepted his volume largely timed with the absence of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Well, the 23-year-old third-round pick in his third season, just had ten targets (his fourth straight week with eight or more,) while both were available.
He’s averaging an 18% target share on the season and a below-average 1.36 yards per route run. But over the last three weeks, he’s averaged a 26% target share and an above-average 2.1 yards per route run.
While I don’t imagine the first game back for Allen and Williams is entirely the best test (especially since Williams left the game with an apparent re-aggravation of his ankle injury), I also think it’s fair to say Justin Herbert and Palmer have sound some chemistry.
Right now, I’m interested in striking in dynasty while some may think his targets are purely a result of his higher-drafted teammates’ injuries. He’s valued around Chase Claypool and Allen Lazard according to some rankings and I would happily seek Herbert’s latest favorite weapon for that value.
He’s the fifth highest-scoring wide receiver over the last three and the last five weeks.
Recent Risers
Treylon Burks, WR TEN
I didn’t need much convincing but I’m back on the Burks trend. Rookies are the most common group of players to average higher opportunity and PPG down the stretch for a season and in his second week back from injury, Burks gained from his 16% targets hare last week up to 26% target share this week. He had similar week one and two progressions, but his performance was not there.
Christian Watson, WR GB
Watson is another rookie who gained ground on his week ten improvement. While there still seems some boom/bust nature to his play (like a 1.55 yards per route run), it tells the story of a player still developing. But he also had triple the red zone targets this week (three, two inside the 10-yard line), and his size and athleticism look to have found a valuable role.
Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
Over the last five weeks, the Taylor Heinicke has breathed life back into the underrated speedster. It’s come at the expense of the Curtis Samuel top-24 season we were enjoying earlier in the season but with a quarterback who can hit players the down the field.
Parris Campbell, WR IND
Campbell continues his delayed breakout campaign, although his target expectation has dropped into the 4-6 range I had imagined earlier.
Chris Moore, WR HOU
Moore has had a 20% target share the last three weeks, over a 40% Weighted Opportunity Share (Airyards weighted by aDot), and five targets inside the red zone (and one touchdown on them.) If he wasn’t 29 years old and in his seventh career year, we might even be excited about the fourth-round prospect.
Anyway, that’s about all I have time for right now. Let me know what you think, and I’ll see you next week.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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