Optimisery: The Case for and Against AJ Brown in Philadelphia
In this series, Jeremy Schwob and John Di Bari present the optimistic and pessimistic sides to significant changes in the dynasty landscape. Consider both sides, as the goal is to find somewhere in-between.
The old adage that there are two sides to every coin could never be more true than when circumstances change for a player. That is especially true when surprising information is thrust upon us. Psychological difficulty and distress can be encountered when individuals hold rigid views that are strictly one-sided (i.e., split) or alternate drastically from one to the other.
A therapeutic concept called integration is a healthier structure for holding both sides together and tolerating the benefits and flaws simultaneously. Relationally, this could involve being frustrated or angry with them while at the same time being able to maintain that you care about them. Such emotional difficulties can parallel our view of players on dynasty rosters amidst changing circumstances.
The goal of this series is not to have you pick a side or a winner of the argument. Rather, it is to consider both sides and not select one completely in the absence of the other.
One of the most significant moves that took place during the NFL Draft this year was the blockbuster trade between the Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans. The Eagles acquired AJ Brown from the Titans for the 18th and 101st pick in the draft. While this move gave Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts a new top-tier option at his disposal in the passing game, that doesn’t mean it was an upgrade for Brown. Or was it? In Brown’s first three seasons in the NFL, he’s finished as WR21, WR12, and WR32. So will his move to Philadelphia lock him in as a bona fide WR1, or will he continue to toil in the middle of the pack among the WR2s, despite his lofty ADP as a top-five wide receiver? Let’s find out.
OPTIMISM
You won’t find many, if any, who will doubt the talent of superstar Brown. However, you will find some uncertainty regarding the move from the Titans’ No 1 chair in the wide receiver room resembling The Iron Throne to an uncertain, young offense full of weapons in Philadelphia.
Over the last two years, Brown has averaged 106 targets for 67 receptions and just under 1,000 yards. For being a fairly elite option at the position, there is certainly room for improvement, even amidst competition. While the Eagles ranked 29th in passing yards last year, there’s a reason that they went out to acquire a player like Brown. They want to change the complexion of this offense, which has been boring and run-centric in recent years.
The pivotal piece here is Brown’s new quarterback, Jalen Hurts. In his first full season as a starter last year, Hurts performed underwhelmed as a passer. I certainly don’t think that Hurts will be near the top five in pass attempts this year, but a significant jump toward league average seems reasonable. Also, the situation Brown was coming from in Tennessee was not much better, ranking just 26th in pass attempts.
The connection with Hurts will be vital. Whether you believe in Hurts’ ability as a good quarterback ready for a breakout, or you’re into narratives about Hurts and Brown being best friends or going to their children’s birthday parties together, there is a connection here ready to produce some more fun.
– Schwob
PESSIMISM
During his three-season tenure in Tennessee, Brown has been a bit of a fantasy disappointment thus far. Heading into his rookie season, he was drafted as the WR33, and he outperformed that number, finishing as WR21. His ADP then shot up to eighth in 2020, and although he was a WR1, he did underperform his ADP, ending the year as WR12. The upward trend continued in 2021 when Brown was WR4 in ADP but again let owners down with a finish as a WR3, finishing 32nd at his position. That is not a great return on investment over those three seasons.
While a member of the Titans, the team ran the offense through running back Derrick Henry. Over the last three years, Tennessee passed the ball only 49% of the time. In the pass-happy NFL, one would think that anyplace would be an upgrade in terms of run-pass splits, but that isn’t the case. In Philadelphia, during the single season with Hurts under center, the Eagles surprisingly only passed the ball 47% of the time – less than Tennessee’s three-year average.
Most of Brown’s time in Tennessee was spent with Ryan Tannehill as his quarterback. Although no stud for fantasy production, Tannehill’s stats as a passer were better than what we saw from Jalen Hurts. Tannehill’s completion percentage was 67.5%, and Hurts’ was 61.3%. Tannehill’s yards-per-attempt was 8.4% to Hurts’ 7.3%, and yards-per-completion tell more of the same story, with Hurts’ 11.9% being topped by Tannehill’s 12.1%. When you combine the offensive play selection with the quarterback performance, it’s hard to make a case for Brown being in a better situation.
Additionally, you can argue that Brown has more competition for targets than he’s ever had in his career. As a Titan, Brown only had to fend off Corey Davis. To a lesser extent, players like Adam Humphries, Jonnu Smith, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and the ghost of Julio Jones also took some targets from Brown. However, Brown now has to compete with a better corps of pass catchers in Philly. Former Heisman Trophy award winner and 2021 first-round pick DeVonta Smith, last year’s TE9 Dallas Goedert, and deep sleeper Quez Watkins are all competing for targets in this offense. Although he’s been a disappointment thus far, 2020 first-round pick Jalen Reagor is still lurking as well. Smith, in particular, is looking to build off a decent rookie campaign where he caught 64 balls on 104 targets for 916 yards and five scores, good for a WR30 finish last year.
In order to succeed in the eyes of dynasty managers, Brown will have to put up career numbers in a season with an arguably lesser passer at quarterback, more competition for targets than he’s ever had in an offense that looks like it will pass fewer times as well. As a result, it’s hard to find a path for Brown to meet the lofty goals set for him by the fantasy community.
– Di Bari
Ultimately, you must make decisions in dynasty but confront that which does not fit your desired perspective. As uncomfortable as it is, it’s essential to work diligently to integrate the alternative into your overall concept to make more informed decisions.
Going from the unquestioned target hog in a run-first Titans’ offense to an emerging Eagles’ offense was an earth-shattering move on draft night. However, now that the dust has settled, a number of questions remain, not about Brown’s talent but regarding his ceiling and floor in his new setting. Will we see the skill of Brown elevate this offense and unlock Hurts, or will this team be more of the same conservative approach?
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