2021 Summer Sleeper: Minnesota Vikings
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
- Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
- Deep Sleepers – An end-of-the-roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
- Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top 175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
Speaking of Adam Thielen, the Vikings have an exciting offense going into 2021. They retained the same coaching staff from 2020, and they have few to no changes to their offensive weapons. Kirk Cousins remains their quarterback, and they still have star running back Dalvin Cook as their centerpiece. Alexander Mattison also returns as their backup running back as Cook’s primary handcuff. Justin Jefferson is the Vikings’ clear WR1, while Thielen will serve as their WR2.
However, the Vikings did make some changes to their ancillary offensive options, which provides a somewhat decent sleeper at each position. They drafted Kellen Mond in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft, although Cousins has a fully guaranteed deal through 2022. But Mond is an upgrade over their previous backups, and he could step in if Cousins suffers an injury. Unfortunately, he’s solely injury insurance for the next two seasons.
Similarly, the Vikings drafted running back Kene Nwangwu in the fourth round to replace Ameer Abdullah and Mike Boone in the RB3 role behind Cook and Mattison. Of course, Cook is the locked-in starter, but Nwangwu represents a challenge to Mattison’s handcuff role. However, I think this pick means more of a lack of confidence in Mattison as a workhorse replacement for Cook than any independent fantasy value for Nwangwu. If Cook goes down, the Vikings will likely go to a split backfield to replace him with Mattison and Nwangwu.
The Vikings let Kyle Rudolph walk in free agency to sign with the Giants. In theory, that opened up more playing time for Irv Smith Jr, but perhaps previous TE3 Tyler Conklin could also see some snaps. Once again, though, I have little to no interest in Conklin as a fantasy asset. Neither Smith nor Rudolph was fantasy viable in 2020, and Conklin is a far inferior player to either of them. However, I don’t like Conklin because I believe the Vikings found a gem in the fifth round this year, which may cause them to shift their offense to 11 personnel.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette, WR
Category: Deep Sleeper
The Vikings selected Smith-Marsette in the fifth round of the NFL Draft, with the 157th overall pick. Of course, there’s no displacing Jefferson as the WR1, and he’ll remain in that spot for years to come. However, while Thielen is the WR2 right now, he will turn 31 years old in August.
I’m not saying that Thielen is about to fall off, but the Vikings can save $5 million by releasing him after 2021 and $11 million after 2022. If Smith-Marsette can develop into a viable NFL receiver, he has room to climb to the WR2 on this depth chart.
Additionally, Smith-Marsette represents somewhat of a project at the receiver position.
Fun fact: Ihmir Smith-Marsette was recruited out of HS to Iowa to play DB. His freshman year Iowa was short of WRs so they asked him to switch from DB to WR. Only 4 years playing the position! Raw but plenty of room to grow 🚀
— Matt Nein (@mnein9) May 14, 2021
This tweet reminded me that this is a special situation. Smith-Marsette wasn’t even a wide receiver in high school, and he transitioned to wide receiver at a Big-10 school. His college stats also support the idea that he developed as a receiver over time.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
In 2017 and 2018, he mainly played as a depth option behind star tight ends TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant and receiver Nick Easley. However, in 2019, all of those players left for the NFL, leaving a massive void in Iowa’s receiving game. As a result, Smith-Marsette emerged as their top weapon, leading the team in receiving yards and tying for the lead in receiving touchdowns. Even though 2020 was a shortened season, he duplicated that achievement.
Now, I’m not saying that Smith-Marsette will have fantasy viability in 2021. Almost no day three wide receivers ever hit for fantasy as a rookie, and he’s clearly behind Jefferson and Thielen in the pecking order. But he has an easy path to the WR3 role, as the Vikings’ other options include Chad Beebe and Olabisi Johnson. Those two players total fewer than 800 receiving yards in their careers, and Johnson has had a few opportunities to claim a more significant role in the past. I expect Smith-Marsette to pass them for week one, or at least after a game or two at the worst.
Smith-Marsette was an early fifth-round pick in May’s DLF 1QB rookie ADP, and I don’t feel that his value has changed much since then. He was the 266th overall player and WR107 in June’s DLF QB startup ADP, giving him only upside and no risk at that price.
Receivers taken ahead of him include Scott Miller, Randall Cobb, and Devin Funchess, and there’s just no way any of those players carry Smith-Marsette’s long-term ceiling. I wouldn’t go out and pay for Smith-Marsette, but he shouldn’t be on any dynasty waiver wires. Make sure to add him if you have an open spot or over another flier.
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