Monday Hangover: Week 15

The fantasy football community lost a great person recently when Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros passed away from COVID-19, despite being fully vaccinated against the disease. His shocking and sudden passing has left a huge void behind the scenes in the industry and he leaves behind a beautiful family, including Tabbie (Mike’s wife) and their children, Alyssa (18) and Jonathan (4). Many have rallied to support the Tagliere family and there’s a GoFundMe account set up to do just that. If any of you feel the calling to give, there are few people better to support than “Tags.” He will be missed!

I’m honored to write DLF’s traditional Sunday Six Pack series this year. However, it’s essential to go beyond predicting and discussing what will happen. Therefore, I will look at my storylines from the weekly Six Pack and summarize the results in these Monday Hangover articles. Occasionally, I will also add other important reactions from the week, whether injuries, breakouts, or busts. So let’s jump into it!

The Post-Urban Meyer Jaguars

Unfortunately, I wasn’t impressed by the first game of the post-Urban Meyer era in Jacksonville. They lost to the lowly Texans in a 30-16 stinker, continuing their woes on both sides of the football. In the Six Pack, I mentioned Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, Marvin Jones, and Laviska Shenault as players who could improve under interim head coach Darrell Bevell.

However, few of those players emerged this week. Robinson was likely the brightest spot of the Jaguars’ offense, as Bevell stated he would be their clear starter moving forward. He certainly was, taking 18 of the team’s 19 running back carries for 75 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars also gave him six targets, which he converted into three receptions for 13 yards. This game made me feel significantly better about Robinson’s prospects for the rest of this season and in dynasty formats.

On the other hand, the rest of the Jaguars’ options failed to impress this week. Lawrence had another poor game with 22 of 38 passing for 210 yards, especially against the Texans’ defense. At this point, it’s fair to have concerns with Lawrence, as he hasn’t met his lofty preseason expectations.

As for Jones and Shenault, neither did anything special. Jones had only four targets, catching two for 14 yards. He seems like he’s on the back end of his career and carries little to no dynasty value. Shenault had a slightly better game with four catches for 39 yards, but it still wasn’t an outstanding performance. Even without Meyer, Laquon Treadwell served as the Jaguars’ WR1, leading the team in targets and receptions. Treadwell is a must-add off waiver wires, while Shenault is likely purely a hype machine at this point.

Nico Collins’ Emergence

There’s good news and bad news with Collins. The bad news is that he didn’t do much this week, with only two receptions for 14 yards on four targets. However, the good news is that Texans’ quarterback Davis Mills looked surprisingly competent this week, providing a better floor for Collins in case he’s the 2022 starter as well.

Additionally, Collins’ uneventful game will allow dynasty managers to buy him cheaply, as he won’t be top of mind. Let’s look at the DLF Trade Finder for some examples.

I love this trade, as Jamison Crowder is a declining asset on a terrible Jets’ team, while Collins has so much more potential. I’d take Collins every single time in this deal.

I like this trade even more than the first one, as Gabriel Davis is an excellent throw-in piece as well. Odell Beckham is a far older player, while Dontrell Hilliard doesn’t carry much dynasty value. Combine those factors with a 2023 first compared to a 2023 second, and I barely understand this deal.

Overall, I guarantee I will suggest targeting Collins this off-season, both in startups and in trades. However, if your league doesn’t have a trade deadline, I would try to move for him now, before dynasty managers begin an off-season hype train. I promise that Collins will be far more popular in March and April than he is now.

Michael Carter’s Return

Carter did little to nothing in his return game, splitting work with Tevin Coleman and Austin Walter in the Jets’ 31-24 loss to the Dolphins. Coleman and Carter had eight carries each, although Coleman turned his carries into 50 yards compared to 18 yards for Carter. The Jets also made receiving back Ty Johnson a healthy scratch for this game, which seemed to eliminate any passes to the running backs. All three backs totaled only one reception, a two-yard catch from Carter.

I mentioned Carter’s splits with Mike White in the Six Pack, specifically how almost all his receiving production came with White. This game amplified my long-term concerns surrounding Carter, a committee back in college. I highly doubt the Jets move forward with Carter and scraps behind him as they have now. Instead, I expect them to bring in a proper complement in free agency or the NFL Draft, with Melvin Gordon, James Conner, Ronald Jones, Marlon Mack, and Sony Michel as possible options.

Therefore, I’d consider selling Carter, although now may represent poor timing. I bet he’ll look better against the Jaguars next week, which could provide a better sell window. But for now, if you can return a first-round rookie pick for Carter, I’d likely accept that.

What’s up with Dak Prescott?

This game was bizarre, as the Cowboys’ defense shut the Giants’ offense down in a low-scoring 21-6 victory. As a result, the Cowboys didn’t need much from Prescott, who completed 28 of 37 passes for 217 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, Prescott failed to add any rushing yards, as Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott combined for 28 carries for 126 yards and a touchdown. Therefore, Prescott again finished with a lousy fantasy output, killing dynasty managers who trusted him this week.

At this point, I find Prescott’s value at sixth overall in DLF’s superflex rankings to be a bit rich. Even in the superflex format, I feel more comfortable spending my first-round pick on Jonathan Taylor, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, or CeeDee Lamb, who all rank behind Prescott in those rankings.

Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.

This week will likely represent Prescott’s fourth game in the last five outside of the top-20 quarterbacks. He also only has four top-five performances all season, failing to provide the ceiling requisite of a high-end superflex asset.

I’m not saying that Prescott is worthless or anything, though. If anything, now may represent an excellent buying window. He’s only 28 years old, with most of his career still in front of him. If I could pay a speculative quarterback like Mac Jones or Tua Tagovailoa and a first-round pick to acquire Prescott, I still would in superflex dynasty formats.

The Cardinals’ Receiving Corps Without DeAndre Hopkins

Well, let’s say this week was a real-life disaster for the Cardinals. It seems like they missed Hopkins more than I could’ve imagined. Even against the Lions’ awful defense, Kyler Murray struggled to put together any consistency, leading to a disgraceful 30-12 loss. Murray completed 23 of 41 passes for 257 yards, a touchdown, and an interception while adding four carries for three yards.

However, despite the real-life mess, most of the alternative receiving weapons stepped up. Kirk shined as the WR1 on the day, catching nine of 12 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown. He led the team in all receiving categories. I don’t think Kirk is a WR1 in the NFL, but he will sign as the WR2 or secondary receiving weapon somewhere. I expect him to provide fantasy value as an undervalued dynasty asset throughout his career.

Beyond Kirk, veterans AJ Green and Zach Ertz had good games. Green caught four of eight targets for 64 yards, while Ertz had six catches for 64 yards on 11 targets. Neither player carries much dynasty value, although Ertz matters more due to positional scarcity. The Cardinals are a contending roster, and I could easily see them re-signing Green and Ertz. Both players are veterans who’ve found more recent success in Arizona than other places, and both should be reasonably priced.

But the main concern is a total lack of involvement for Rondale Moore. Moore caught all three of his targets for nine yards and had one carry for one yard. In contrast, Antoine Wesley had eight targets, although he only had three catches for 19 yards on those looks. As a result, I believe it’s time to downgrade Moore in dynasty formats, as I doubt the Cardinals can trust him as the second option in 2021 behind Hopkins. He simply hasn’t shown enough as a rookie to be handed that role.

Will Chase Claypool Be Punished?

I can’t say that Claypool was punished for sure, but it certainly seemed like it in the Steelers’ 19-13 win over the Titans. After receiving nine targets last week, including a benching, he only had two targets this week plus a seven-yard run. He didn’t technically catch either of his targets, although he added 12 receiving yards on a reverse play, finishing with 1.9 PPR points on the day. Anyone who started Claypool against the Titans’ leaky pass defense had to be incredibly disappointed.

Even though Pat Freiermuth left the game with a concussion, head coach Mike Tomlin seemed to involve James Washington in the offense more often, giving him five targets. Right now, I’m looking for an escape route to move on from Claypool. However, the trades in the trade finder are mostly unappealing, especially those after his outbursts last week.

But I’m unequivocally going nowhere near him in startup drafts at his current DLF ADP of WR20 and 43.75 overall. That price seems ridiculous considering his lack of production and his current path to the doghouse in Pittsburgh. He appears at least a round too early in those drafts, especially given his ADP trajectory.

Chart courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.

Inexplicably, his ADP rose significantly in September and essentially hasn’t changed since then. I have no idea why his 2021 performance justifies his current ADP and why the market hasn’t moved on him, but I certainly disagree with the ADP data here.