20/20: Pat Freiermuth, TE Penn State
Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we profile 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2021 by giving you 20 facts you must know.
1. Player Name: Pat Freiermuth
2. College: Penn State Nittany Lions
3. Height/Weight: 6’5”, 260 pounds
4. Birthdate: October 25, 1998 (22 years old)
5. Class: Junior
6. Basic college stats: From a baseline assessment, Freiermuth’s counting stats don’t seem overly impressive, but as always context is needed. In 2018 the Nittany Lions ran the ball a whopping 521 times compared to only 379 passing attempts. As a true freshman, Freiermuth’s receptions and yardage were actually the second-most on the team, behind only 2020 second-round pick KJ Hamler, while his eight touchdowns led the way and represented 38% of the team’s aerial scores.
2019 was virtually a repeat, with Penn State’s run-to-pass ratio essentially the same as the year before. Freiermuth again fell behind only Hamler in all key categories (including one less receiving score). Notably he increased his receptions by 17, and his yardage by 139 (albeit with one extra contest versus 2018).
2020 was shaping up to be Freiermuth’s turn as “the man,” and he responded with a crisp weekly line of 5.8 receptions for 77.5 yards, though his touchdowns fell off the previous years’ pace. All told, despite playing in fewer than half of the team’s contests he nonetheless finished third in both receptions and yards.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
7. NFL Draft round projection: Late first to second round. Kyle Pitts will undoubtedly be the first tight end selected, but Freiermuth may be the prize for the team that doesn’t spend a top-ten selection. It’s likely between he and Brevin Jordan for the crown of second tight end selected in the 2021 NFL Draft.
8. Current NFL comp: To be clear, this is a stylistic comparison, not an assertion that Freiermuth will become a future Hall of Famer. But given his size, relative speed and fluidity, the completeness of his game, contested catch ability, and of course his nose for the end zone, Freiermuth reminds many a fantasy owner of the positional GOAT Rob Gronkowski.
Gronk has an inch and likely a few pounds, but both have above-average size at the position. Both are also likely to function as three-down tight ends, with an ability to play in-line and on the outside, and block in the run game when necessary. Penn State’s Pro Day will show if he has the freakish combination of arm length and hand size as Gronk, but securing catches in traffic has never been an issue.
Perhaps most importantly to fantasy enthusiasts is Freiermuth’s proclivity in the red zone. Despite not utilizing a redshirt season, he had 15 touchdowns in his first 25 games, good for 0.6 scores per game. With the totality of these attributes, right down to sporting #87, it’s no surprise Freiermuth earned the moniker of “Baby Gronk.”
9. Best possible destination: Tennessee Titans, with either the 22nd or 53rd overall pick. It’s true the Titans don’t throw the ball a lot, but with an off-season exodus potentially looming, there is no one behind alpha pass-catcher AJ Brown, at either the receiver or tight end position. With an ability to play all three downs, Freiermuth stands as a great fit for the depleted Tennessee skill position corps. While I wouldn’t expect rookie year contributions (the same is true for any tight end, really), Freiermuth should be able to force his way onto the field in Nashville.
10. Worst possible destination: While the easy answer would be the 49ers, who have question marks at quarterback and just signed stud George Kittle to a big deal, that would be a cop-out. So out of teams with an actual need at the position, I’d hate to see Freiermuth land with the Cardinals. Through two years of Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, the Cardinals’ TE1 has only been able to aggregate 675 yards and five touchdowns – in 2019 the TE1 was 29th in targets out of all teams, and in 2020 that only improved to 25th. That’s just not going to be usable for fantasy owners. Perhaps Kingsbury will adapt, but I’d rather not wait to find out.
11. Best current skill: As mentioned above, Freiermuth has proven the ability to score the ball. With the tight end position a barren wasteland outside of the top few options, a nose for the end zone should stand as the attribute most likely to propel a player to the upper positional echelon. The NFL is certainly different than college, but translation of this skill could yield massive fantasy dividends.
12. Skill that needs to be improved: This is challenging, as Freiermuth is likely the most complete tight end in the class. Certain attributes could certainly be improved, such as speed, but it’s not as if he is a slug at his size. Not everyone is Vernon Davis, after all.
This is admittedly a subjective assessment, but having seen every one of Freiermuth’s games I’d like to see him be better able to prepare his body for tackles. He’s always looking for physicality, which makes for some highlight-reel plays – but NFL defenders are bigger and stronger than those in the Big Ten, and he doesn’t need to go out of his way to initiate contact at the next level. Sometimes discretion is the better part of valor, and Freiermuth needs to realize when it’s time to dial it back and live to see another play.
13. Current rookie ADP: Per the March Rookie ADP, Friermuth checks in as an early third-round pick with an ADP of 26.00 as the TE2. In terms of positional value, heh is very nearly unanimously ranked as the second-best tight end in the 2021 class by the DLF rookie rankers.
14. Projected dynasty value: When veterans are accounted for, Freiermuth is being selected as the TE18 and 162nd player overall (ADP = 160.7), sandwiched by Darrell Henderson and Austin Hooper. As an early 14th-round pick, he offers significantly more upside than downside.
15. Age: When it comes to age, he is an interesting case. Due to a post-sophomore transfer, he stayed back a year, and actually spent five total seasons in high school. As such, and despite only spending three years in college, he’ll enter the league at just under 23 years old. While slightly older than many would prefer, I don’t view it as any different than if he spent four years in high school and four years in college.
16. Penn State Record Holder: Poor Mike Gesicki. Though it took him until his junior year in college to truly blossom, he was finally able to grow into his potential and ultimately set the record for touchdowns by a Penn State tight end. In just 25 career games Freiermuth tied him, and then passed him early in his junior season. Gesicki played 45 collegiate games, and Freiermuth played 29. It’s scary to think what the latter could have done if he stayed in college all four years.
17. Devy Metric Darling: Film versus metrics, the debate never ends! For those who skew more towards the latter and want to supplement the videos of Freiermuth lowering his shoulder and trucking hapless defenders with cold, hard data, be heartened. Even despite his five years in high school, Freiermuth boasts a breakout age in the 82nd percentile, while his touchdown-fueled dominator rating resides in the 84th percentile.
18. A Pig in a Trough: In other words, Freiermuth was in the process of becoming an absolute (target) hog! Though college statisticians don’t track targets, Freiermuth unofficially sequestered 37 targets through four 2020 contests. This occurred after securing a 17.1% target share as a true sophomore, despite the presence of Hamler. As stated above in reference to his touchdown record, it’s safe to say we were robbed of what could have been a monster, albeit truncated junior season.
19. Injury Concerns: As alluded to in previous sections, Freiermuth was only able to complete four games in 2020. Due to the clandestine nature of the Penn State medical program, all we know is that he suffered a shoulder injury early in the season, played through it for a few games, but ultimately decided to pack it in rather than risking further injury. All indications are that it won’t be an issue moving forward, and he should be fine for his rookie season. Prior to 2020 he was able to compete in 25 contests, and injuries weren’t a concern. While I’m not going to declare any sort of assertions about “injury proneness,” I’d rather have an incoming rookie who only suffered one serious injury over those who had lengthier histories.
20. High-End High School Prospect: For those who believe that an elite high school recruiting profile portends well for future success, Freiermuth is your guy. In 2018 he was rated as the ninth overall tight end prospect, and number 224 player overall. Though he ultimately signed with Penn State, he reported offers from top colleges such as LSU, Notre Dame, and Ohio State.
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