Late Round Bargain Hunting: Wide Receiver Edition
This is the third of a four-part series highlighting players who may be superb values for you in the later rounds of your draft (ten or later). Do not panic if you missed out on Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, or Tyreek Hill. There is still hope for you to build a contender.
READ: Late Round Bargain Hunting: Quarterback Edition | Late Round Bargain Hunting: Running Back Edition
Each part of the series will capture three or four players at their respective positions and detail the upside they possess to help you on your way to a title. Especially at the low, low cost of a tenth round (or later) draft pick.
Let us get started.
Please note that that this data is pulled from the latest ADP startup mocks from DLF.
Marvin Jones, WR DET (ADP: 137.17, WR62)
It is strange how quickly we sometimes move on from players in the fantasy football world. We always seem to be seeking out the next “steal” of the draft or the latest hot prospect we can snag cheaply. Often we discard players as a “one-year wonder”. However, what we seek is right in front of us. Typically, just taking off the blinders and not having tunnel vision is all we need to gain an edge come draft day. While looking for some late-round values, Jones stoked the fire a bit.
Been There, Done That
Jones has been steadily good but not great since his rookie year in Cincinnati. The veteran wideout has recorded at least 50 catches, 500 yards, and four touchdowns in each season that he played at least ten games. Keep in mind, all of the 2014 season was missed with an ankle injury.
The Cal grad finished as the WR28 last season despite playing in just 13 games. In those games, Jones hauled in 62 of 91 targets for 779 yards and nine touchdowns. The touchdowns matched the 2017 total that saw a finish of WR11. Despite the upside, players like Corey Davis and Sterling Shephard are being drafted ahead of the former Bengal.
The hope in the Motor City is that Jones can return to his 2017 form and bring the offense back to top-ten scoring form. Coinciding with the 2017 breakout year was Matthew Stafford’s best finish since 2011. It was Stafford’s second-best fantasy finish of his ten-year career. A healthy Stafford will go a long way towards helping the former 166th pick in the NFL draft.
“Jonesing” For Value
We see by looking at the ADP over time app that the decline has been steady since finishing as a WR1 in 2017. That was only three seasons ago. Jones has not played a full 16 games since. A full season would almost guarantee a WR2 finish in 2020.
Take advantage of the injury history lowering the cost of a player with WR1 upside. You simply cannot beat that kind of value as WR62 in startup drafts.
The Clear-Cut WR2
Kenny Golladay is Detroit’s WR1. No one questions that. But the Lions have no one on the depth chart who will truly push Jones for targets at the wideout position. Sure, Danny Amendola and Geronimo Allison are there, but they are hardly threats. TJ Hockenson will likely take a step forward and may steal some red-zone targets from the vet, but the WR2 spot is clearly his to lose.
A look at the player splits app shows us that he is a WR1 without Golladay on the field and a WR2 with him on it. Jones actually has a better touchdown ratio with his WR1 counterpart on the field. This only just increases the “safety” of his value. Age is the only concern in dynasty formats but you can still likely get a year or two of production from him.
There is a lot of optimism for the offense in Motown. This is a great way to get a piece of what may be a high-powered scoring machine in 2020. There have been comments on Twitter that compare Golladay and Jones to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans from last year. That may be a little optimistic, but the potential is certainly there.
Golden Tate, WR NYG (ADP: 148.67, WR67)
There is another wily old veteran getting overlooked in dynasty leagues. If you plan to contend with a startup team, you need to hit on some late-round value and ignore age while focusing on production. You need Golden Tate.
Numbers are Deceiving
You may look at Tate and just see a WR45 finish for 2019. Keep in mind the journeyman wideout played in just 11 games. In nine of those 11 games, Daniel Jones was the quarterback. Going back to the well with the player splits app used above, we get a clearer reason as to why you need the former Lion and Seahawk on your team, especially at the cheap cost.
It is interesting to note that from week five to week 17, the YAC monster averaged 13.9 points per game. That is more than Keenan Allen, AJ Brown, and teammate Darius Slayton, who is being drafted over 50 spots ahead of Tate.
A Reliable Option
Tate has played in 16 games all but four of ten seasons. In two of those four, he still played 15 games and then, of course, we had the suspension last year. Tate is not likely to win you many weeks but he certainly will not be losing you weeks either. In 2019, nine of his 11 games saw him reach double digits. The targets are there as well. He received 85 in those 11 games, good for an average of 7.73 per game.
The yearly data app shows just how steady Tate has been over his career. You cannot ask for better consistency at that cost. The Notre Dame alum is a good plug-and-play, especially in leagues that require you to start three wideouts.
Perpetually Underrated
The ADP/Rank vs. PPG app is a really neat tool available from DLF. This helps visualize how a player performs versus their ADP and DLF rankings. Being better is a good thing – that means a player has exceeded expectations. Tate fits the bill and proves that he is still a bargain, even though he will be 32 when the season starts.
Jones will be entering his second year in the league and they seem to have already built a solid rapport in just nine games together. Look for Tate to demolish his ADP with his finish in 2020.
Julian Edelman, WR NE (ADP: 157.17, WR70)
Rounding out the “nursing home” edition of late-round bargains, we have Edelman. Yes, Tom Brady is gone. Yes, Jarrett Stidham is the quarterback. Does everyone think that Edelman will drop that far off of a cliff from the WR7 finish of last year? The ADP suggests exactly that. There is a reason for optimism, however.
Targets, Targets, Targets
Edelman has averaged 9.55 targets per game over the past three seasons. The only transaction the Patriots made to change the makeup of the receiver room was signing Damiere Byrd, formerly of the Arizona Cardinals. Still there from 2019 are N’Keal Harry (24 targets), Jakobi Meyers (41 targets), and Mohamed Sanu (47 targets). It is hard to imagine anyone here threatening Edelman for targets in 2020.
The weekly snap count percentage app shows us just how much Edelman dominated snaps in 2019. That is not likely to change either in 2020, regardless of who the quarterback is.
About Stidham
Stidham attempted four passes in his rookie season of 2019. That does not tell us much. We do know that his combine results were similar to those of Joe Burrow. While this certainly does not mean the Auburn grad is on the same scale as the number one overall pick, it does give us some insight into his athleticism.
Using the college market share app, we see Stidham had a solid completion percentage his sophomore year before dipping a bit during his senior season. It seems reasonable to believe that the Baylor transfer would lean on his slot man Edelman as he grows at the position.
The main target during his time at Auburn was Ryan Davis, who is similar in stature to Edelman. Look for the targets to continue to be there.
Wrapping it Up
Do not panic if you miss out on one of the few top receivers available early on in your draft. Your team is not destined for failure. The chance is still there to draft a more-than-capable fantasy wideout in later rounds.
While none of these players are long term solutions in dynasty formats, if you do well enough early on to build a contender, they will round out your squad nicely to make a run in 2020. These are just a few I found who stood out to me. Be active on the wire and with trades and you will be well on your way to a championship.
Thank you for reading part three of this series. Up next will be the tight end position. I hope you enjoyed reading and look forward to having you back for part four. Feel free to comment and I will be glad to respond or hit me up on Twitter (@FFJeffSmith).
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
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