Late Round Bargain Hunting: Quarterback Edition
This is the first of a four-part series highlighting players who may be superb values for you in the later rounds of your draft (ten or later). Do not panic if you missed out on Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Deshaun Watson. There is still hope for you to build a contender.
Each part of the series will capture three or four players at their respective positions and detail the upside they possess to help you on your way to a title. Especially at the low, low cost of a tenth round (or later) draft pick. Let us get started. Please note that that this data is pulled from the latest ADP startup mocks from DLF.
Daniel Jones, QB NYG (ADP: 127.67, QB12)
The rookie out of Duke had a very underrated season in 2019. Jones had four finishes in the top five. That is just one less such occurrence than Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson put up on the year. The controversial first-round pick of the Giants did so in just 12 full games. He did play in 13 games but only attempted four passes in one of them.
Upside and Improvements
Looking at the weekly position finishes courtesy of the DLF yearly data app, we can see Jones only had two games outside of the top 24 – one of which was the aforementioned four passing attempt performance.
If you recall, the New York Giants were also riddled with injuries at the skill position in 2019. Not once did the 22-year-old have his full complement of weapons on the field at the same time. The G-Men also invested heavily in their offensive line during the 2020 draft, increasing the odds for Jones to succeed this season.
Slinging the Rock
Once again dismissing the four-attempt performance, the former Blue Devil attempted 455 passes over his other 12 contests. That is good for a gleaming 37.92 tosses per game. In fact, in 10 of the 12 full games played saw the offense throw the ball 35 times or more. The receiving weapons also are typically afterthoughts, but the combo of Sterling Shephard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, and Golden Tate cannot be ignored.
Despite the presence of Saquon Barkley, new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett will likely still be inclined to still let his youngster sling it around some. During his time in Dallas, the former head man proved his offense can support both a QB1 and an RB1. For his career, a Garrett led offense has finished in the top half of the league in pass attempts in all but four of 13 years in the league. Using the coaching history app over at DLF, we see that the offense has been as high as number three in the league in attempts.
Technically a QB1 in 2019
If we were to take the points per game average of the “real” 12 games played for the first time NFL signal-caller, Jones would have finished as the QB9. That 18.98 per game total would have placed him ahead of Matt Ryan, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray.
Given the upside displayed with a bottom-ranked offensive line and the injuries at the skill position, the arrow is pointing straight up for the soon-to-be-second-year quarterback. As the 12th QB off the board, you could certainly do worse than take a flier on someone that has the potential to be a weekly starter for your fantasy squad. Draft Jones with confidence late in the tenth round or early in the eleventh.
Matt Ryan, QB ATL (ADP: 133.50, QB14)
Even at 34 years old (soon to be 35), Ryan has plenty to offer dynasty owners who are willing to take a shot on him late in drafts. The Boston College grad has been a picture of health his entire career, playing in 16 games in all but two of 12 NFL seasons. Even the years he did not play a full slate of games, he was able to log 14 and 15 games, respectively.
Along with staying healthy, Ryan has remained consistent, logging QB1 finishes in eight of 12 seasons with the Falcons. This is the type of consistency we look for in our starting fantasy quarterback. Of those eight QB1 finishes, six of them were in the top seven. Using the yearly data app again, we see just how steady the franchise player has been. Drew Brees has even been given a run for his money year in and year out from the underrated division rival.
What About His Age?
While his age is a little bit of a concern, you can rest easy knowing that unless Atlanta wants to take a huge cap hit by moving on, the veteran signal-caller is assured to be the starter. A close look at the contract shows the Falcons will suffer enormous cap casualties if they release Ryan. The number is still well over $26 million in 2022.
Data courtesy of Over the Cap.
Knowing there is little risk of the former Golden Eagle moving on makes the selection a little more palatable, especially late in drafts. Keep in mind, Ryan finished as the QB10 while playing 15 games last year behind an injury-riddled line. The projected starting offensive line only played about 100 of a possible 1,100 offensive snaps together. A healthy James Carpenter and Chris Lindstrom should go a long way to help things along. An investment in helping the line was also made when the Falcons selected Matt Hennessy out of Temple as a possible future replacement for Alex Mack.
All the Weapons
The addition of Todd Gurley cannot do anything but help out the passing game with the receiving chops he brings home to Georgia with him from his time in Los Angeles. Julio Jones can still get it done and Calvin Ridley should continue to grow.
The swap from Austin Hooper to Hayden Hurst may take a little adjustment time, but one could argue that Hurst is the better athlete. The measurables for the two are similar, but Hurst’s numbers compare to those of Todd Heap and Travis Kelce as opposed to Ben Koyack or Jeremy Sprinkle. Perhaps the former Raven has just lacked the opportunity to showcase his skills.
As with Jones, the upside this late is just too hard to pass up. Factor in the yearly consistency you can expect to see from Ryan, and you have a nice fall back plan if you miss out on one of the top, young stars at the position. There is always next year to get younger.
Matthew Stafford, QB DET (ADP: 151.33, QB16)
Last, but certainly not least, is Stafford. It is easy to forget that the Georgia grad was the QB4 in points per game (21.4) before being shut down with a nagging back injury after week eight. This is the same injury Stafford played within 2018 and still managed to tough out a QB18 finish.
The veteran had a nice string of QB1 finishes before the back injury, finishing in the top 12 six of the seven years prior. One would think if fully healed, he will be ready to return to form. Going back to the well with the yearly data app, we see Stafford was a model of consistency.
More Weapons? Yes, Please!
The Detroit Lions added fellow Bulldog alum D’Andre Swift and even beefed up the offensive line with the addition of Jonah Jackson from Ohio State in the third round and Logan Stenberg from Kentucky in the fourth.
Couple these additions to the already potent skill players in place, and you have the potential for an upside QB1 week in and week out. Kerryon Johnson can hopefully stay healthy for 16 games and can break one at any time. Kenny Golladay is a straight stud and Marvin Jones can still bring it. Factor in a full year of experience for ultra-talented TJ Hockenson and you have a nice core of weapons to support the 32-year-old.
When given a competent and healthy quarterback play, Darrell Bevell has proven he can get it done at the quarterback position. Look for a healthy Lions team to bounce back in 2020.
But He is Old Too, Right?
Much like Ryan, Stafford is in his early to mid-thirties. However, just like the previously mentioned Falcons signal-caller, the Lions are tied to their franchise quarterback for at least the next couple of years. Unless of course, they want to incur the wrath of a crippling cap hit.
Cutting ties with Stafford before the end of the 2021 season would crush the Motor City Kitties with at least $19 million in dead money. This leads one to believe that you can get at least two more serviceable years from him, barring re-injury of course.
Data Courtesy of Over the Cap.
Stafford is worth a roll of the dice in the 12th or 13th round. If anything, he is a safer proposition than Drew Lock or Sam Darnold, who is being drafted right around him. It boils down to your propensity for risk and how much you factor age into your roster construction.
If you are risk-averse, Stafford is a safer bet (barring injury of course) than the young, unproven talents in Denver or the Big Apple. There is an old saying that states “better the devil you know, than the devil you don’t.” This certainly could apply here.
Wrapping it Up
Do not beat yourself up if you miss out on one of the top quarterbacks early on in your draft. Your team is not destined for failure. The chance is still there to draft a more than capable fantasy quarterback in later rounds.
In theory, because you waited on a quarterback, your team will be deeper at other positions. Through trades and with a little bit of luck on the wire, your team can get young rather quickly.
Thank you for reading part one of this series. Up next will be the running back position. I hope you enjoyed reading and look forward to having you back for part two.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
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