Notable IDP Assets on Bye this week
DL: Kerry Hyder, Akiem Hicks, Jerry Hughes
LB: Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Khalil Mack, Roquan Smith, Blake Martinez, Tremaine Edmunds
DB: Jaquiski Tartt, Eddie Jackson, Jabrill Peppers, Logan Ryan, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde
The gist of this column is simple: finding players who are either long-term dynasty fliers OR quality one-week rentals-you’ll tend to know which is which from my write-ups. We will be using two different avenues to uncover IDP talent.
The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.
Year-to-Date waiver wire standings:
Disruption Score Adds~ 13 Hits, 11 Average, 9 Busts
Matchup-Based Adds~ 20 Hits, 11 Average, 9 Busts (Skrine pending MNF)
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Week ten Observations
- Larry Ogunjobi finally got a sack! Okay, half a sack. I’ve been harping on him to break out for a few weeks now, and I’m hoping this is the start of a great second half.
- You can start Josey Jewell with confidence as a solid LB2.
- Kamren Curl is a legitimate top 15 safety with Landon Collins out. We mentioned him last week so I hope you got him, but if he’s still on waivers, you’ve got yourself a starting-caliber player for free!
- Christian Kirksey didn’t have a monster output in his first game back in over a month, but this was mostly due to the low snap volume. He only had seven tackles, but this still led the Packers.
- Just as I bench Patrick Queen, he gets you 10+ points in the rainy battle in primetime. You’re welcome, America. I’m probably going to bench him one more time if I have the luxury to do so, so go ahead and fire him up again….
- Lavonte David and Devin White also had disappointing days, but this was also due to a low snap volume. Don’t panic on them, as they’re both top ten linebacker options.
- John Johnson had a nice bounce-back game after his mega-dud against the Dolphins in week eight. There never was a reason to be concerned, but his eight tackle performance against Seattle put antsy managers at ease.
- Dre Greenlaw is a locked and loaded starter for the rest of the season after his week 11 bye.
- A couple of weeks ago I was watching a Patriots game and I saw Winovich and Belichick get a little heated after Winovich had an unnecessary block in the back penalty. I didn’t actually think this was true, but I thought to myself whether he may get benched a bit because of this. Then, Winovich’s production and snap share started to plummet. I believe Chase Winovich is out of the doghouse now though, seeing he got a full complement of snaps last night.
- Denico Autry and Grover Stewart both posted nice stats in the Thursday night showdown against the Titans. Autry has a much higher sack upside, while Stewart has been a consistent tackle producer. Both are fine DT plugs if you need an emergency option.
- Stay ready, Isaiah Simmons owners. His breakout is coming, but we have to see it before we can start playing him in full confidence. If Jordan Hicks keeps playing like he has been, Simmons will be out there sooner rather than later.
Before you dig into this column, here are a few of the usual IDP starters that have tough matchups ahead in week nine who you may consider benching for a dart throw found below:
Good luck this week! It’s about time for that final playoff push! How time flies…
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
I don’t like tooting my own horn often, but just wanted to give you a behind the scenes look at the Disruption Score once again heading into the week ten matchups. By filtering players with a Disruption Score higher than 20 with sack rates also below 20%, it seems to be the magic formula for finding immediate breakout sack candidates. The score had yet another great week, so let’s keep that momentum rolling into week 11!
Carl Lawson, DE CIN (Season Disruption Score: 51.32 ~ DL #6 overall)
The 25-year-old defensive end has been a massive riser in Disruption Score over the past four weeks, and the return of Sam Hubbard should help keep a ton of extra attention off of him going forward. While Lawson didn’t record a sack in a difficult matchup against Pittsburgh yesterday, he did accrue SIX quarterback hits in the process! I don’t know what the record for hits is without a single sack in a game, but Lawson’s ability to live in the backfield in a heated divisional game bodes well for his chances to hit the paydirt over the rest of the season as you make your playoff push. If he’s still on waivers, scoop Lawson up first this week.
DaVon Hamilton, DT JAC (Season Disruption Score: 11.95 ~ DL #38 overall)
Hamilton was a third-round pick in the 2020 NFL draft, but he’s been playing like a veteran over the past few weeks. Sure, his run defense has been pretty poor, but I have been impressed with what I have seen from Hamilton over the course of this crazy season. After getting the first sack of his career yesterday against the Packers (nobody has been able to sack Aaron Rodgers lately…), Hamilton should continue to see productive matchups with Josh Allen drawing attention on the outside. If you are in DT-featured leagues, be sure to have Hamilton on your roster if you’re in a pinch.
Markus Golden, OLB ARI (Disruption Score: 28.56 ~ LB #7 overall)
As seen in the picture above, players with Disruption Scores above 20 and relatively low sack rates have shown to break out almost immediately. While Golden was one of the few players not to find the quarterback in week ten, he’s worth firing up in a Thursday night matchup against the Seahawks. Seattle will look to bounce back from their disappointing performance against the Rams in week ten, and their aggressive playstyle + poor offensive line should bode well for Golden. If you don’t believe me, just look at what Leonard Floyd playing the same position yesterday. Wow!
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Jonathan Allen, DT WAS (Week 11, vs. Cincinnati)
Allen had a disappointing day against the Lions with only three solo tackles, but this should change next week against Joe Burrow, who has been sacked the second-most of any quarterback in the NFL. Chase Young should obviously come away with a sack of his own, but there will be plenty of opportunities to go around against Cincinnati’s anemic interior offensive line. Alex Smith had a great day on Sunday, and the longer Washington sticks around in this game, the higher likelihood Allen gets back on track in terms of DL2-level production.
DJ Wonnum, DE MIN (Week 11, vs. Dallas)
We have not been able to get a worthy sample size just yet in terms of how Minnesota will deploy their defensive end rotation after Yannick Ngakoue’s departure (remember, this article is written BEFORE Monday Night Football matchups), but Wonnum is my favorite defensive end dart throw after Ifeadi Odenigbo. Wonnum didn’t record a single tackle in the only game we have seen post-Ngakoue, but he still led all other defensive ends not named Odenigbo in snap percentage, playing 51% of the team’s snaps. I hope Wonnum proves me right immediately in tonight’s game, but if not, Dallas is another chance for him to get on track.
Harvey Langi, LB NYJ (Week 11, @ Los Angeles Chargers)
The reasoning for going all-in on Langi was simple after Avery Williamson was traded to the Steelers: the J-E-T-S simply S-T-I-N-K, meaning opposing teams will get up early, run out the clock, and surrender an amazing amount of tackle opportunities on a weekly basis. IDP production isn’t always about raw talent, and with Langi, you can pencil yourself down for a low-end LB2, even if you feel dirty while doing so. Neville Hewitt is also a worthy add, as the two may go back and forth leading the team in tackles.
Cole Holcomb, LB WAS (Week 11, vs. Cincinnati)
I thought Holcomb was a flash in the pan in week six against the Cowboys, but Holcomb has certainly proven me wrong since then. Holcomb has averaged exactly six tackles per game over the past month, while also posting a sack and snagging one interception. Cincinnati is currently allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to linebackers (53.3 per week), which should elevate Holcomb’s floor in week 11 to somewhere between 8-10 tackles next week.
Eric Rowe, S MIA (Week 11, @ Denver)
Defensive back waiver matchups are tough to find this time of year, and when you find yourself looking for a home run play, you have to be looking for a game with serious pick-six potential. Rowe is someone who provides that lottery ticket-type spark, but also has a great tackle floor to fall back on in case the splash play doesn’t come through regardless. He has 27 tackles over the past four weeks, and already proved his ability to create a turnover by picking off Jared Goff. Drew Lock’s play over the past month has done a great job at being “perfectly imperfect,” and you never quite know what you are going to get any time he drops back. Rowe is a great home run Hail Mary for week 11 against the Broncos, who are allowing the most fantasy points to safeties in 2020.