DLF Quarterly Clinic: First Quarter

Jeremy Schwob Posted On October 8, 2020

The DLF Quarterly Clinic is where our writer, Jeremy Schwob, takes you through dynasty issues experienced by DLF staff during the four sections of the season. He highlights psychological undertones, reflections, and questions to consider for the next quarter of the season.

Walk-in Clinic

What dynasty difficulties are you encountering recently? This may include player expectations, value shifts, roster construction, trade considerations, depth chart changes, injury impacts, and more.

DLF staffer: Jeff Smith (@FFJeffSmith)

“I entered a DLF Championship league and did not realize it was so tight-end heavy. Tight end outscores most wide receivers up to Chris Godwin territory. How do I fix this? Trade for a low-end tight end? Thanks for your advice.”

Therapist notes: attention to detail, regret, underestimation, expert seeking, “fix”

DLF staffer: Shane Manila (@ShaneIsTheWorst)

“I have problems with my expectations of coaches’ decision-making not aligning with what I want them to do just because it’s the right thing. Like Joe Mixon not getting used in the passing game until week four.”

Therapist notes: expectations, finality of extreme language, coaches won’t, I want, right thing

DLF staffer: Jon Moorfoot (@JRock1t23)

“Deciding if I have too many shares of a particular player(s) across multiple leagues and should think about moving some on to potentially reduce my risk and diversify my teams.”

Therapist notes: overexposure, risk, particular players

Analysis

Expectations

Weeks one through four often feel like a clean slate and a new beginning for all dynasty teams. However, this initial quarter is typically less refreshing and often more pressure-packed, as a new season comes with hope and potential. We hold initial outcomes under the microscope as we tend to make judgments of them as representative of all our off-season efforts.

When we were making such dynasty choices last season, during rookie or startup drafts, or trades occurring in the off-season, were we focused on seeing results (or further determining the ultimate success of such moves) after the first four weeks of a unique season? Definitely not. So, why are we placing such pressure on this initial quarter of the season? Likely, it is because our excitement and anticipation have created expectations. Developing such hopes and projections can quickly turn to regret if we are surprisingly let down. This is especially true if we have made decisions with draft picks, trades, or free agent add/drops.

Expectations may also apply to our predictions of NFL teams, offenses, or player usage by coaches. Our staffer, Shane Manila, discussed his expectations of passing game usage in Cincinnati. I wonder if this would be as frustrating to Shane if he didn’t feel as though it was the “right thing” as he put it. Rather than create expectations based on our desires, it may be more beneficial to temper our hopeful expectations with a dose of what we hope doesn’t happen, but certainly could.

Another staffer, Jeff Smith, noted not being aware of the magnitude of tight end scoring in his new league. While this could be under-preparation or underestimation, even with awareness of the scoring format it’s possible to see bias creep in here against tight ends. If you don’t expect to draft a tight end in single-digit rounds, it becomes difficult to push them up your board when a resulting move pushes other more attractive names at other positions down a half-round or round.

It is important to consider your roster construction in comparison to league format, but also try removing some personal attachment from players you like if there is a better decision in the format. However, moderating such adjustments can be an optimal strategy if you take advantage of others pushing tight ends up their board if you can capitalize on a later tight end pick.

To that point, I wonder though if Jeff had hit on a mid-round (e.g., Jonnu Smith), later round, or waiver add (e.g., Logan Thomas, Mo Alie-Cox) tight end, would he have been so concerned with his miscalculation? I suspect not. While a misconception of therapists is that we offer advice, a beneficial strategy to engage in at this point would be for Jeff to search for the next player or two at tight end who could string a couple of productive weeks together. Some names I’d be interested in are Adam Trautman, Gerald Everett, and Ian Thomas.

Injuries

Another feeling of regret may arise from player injuries. These feel especially impactful when they occur with 1) high valued players, 2) when they happen to players we roster, and 3) lineup or roster impactful spots.

When the injuries occur to so many highly valued dynasty players, there is there impression that there are significantly more injuries than in a typical season. Because of the spotlight on such players as Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin, George Kittle, AJ Brown, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Courtland Sutton, and Kenny Golladay, among others, it can feel that injuries are occurring more frequently. However, with historical rates remaining relatively comparable, there are some psychological components.

Though, when the damage begins to mount on our lineup or depth, we may feel even more of the gravity of such losses across the fantasy landscape. This is especially true at positions that lack depth like quarterback (in superflex/2QB formats) and running back. Rather than pointing to misfortune, this may reveal a weakness in the construction of your roster.

Other psychological fallacies should also be considered, as discussed in the Session Six: Psychology of Injury article.

Exposure

Overexposure or underexposure often comes as a result of our take on a player. Concerns over exposure often present themselves when we second guess a player we appear to have missed on. This is a particularly charged reaction for us because we have made a decision to acquire a player in a number of areas.

While we may also fear that we have missed out on joining the early acquisition bandwagon for a player breakout, incorrectly fading this player typically induces concern that has less of an impact on us. I question whether those two should elicit similar reactions, in that they are for the most part a decision either way (i.e., decision to acquire or not).

To analyze this, we should return to the process of our opinion formation. If our takes are made a priori or even removed from what others’ expectations are (to the best of your ability), the discrepancies are value. If they are done ad hoc to viewing the projections of others, then it likely reveals a strong bias toward what you want to happen or a blatant desire to be different.

Our staffer, Jon Moorfoot, mentioned fear of being overexposed to a particular player. This reveals another unique dynamic that depends on a few fears. One is a fear that the player will drop in perceived value. As I have mentioned ad nauseam, I pay less attention here as if I stay true to my process then most of my players should perform as expected.

Another is the fear that this player’s performance is not sustainable or will fall off at some point. If this is the case, I wonder why you would be rostering so much of the player. If they were free in late rounds in every draft, that is understandable. However, if they didn’t fit your process at all, then take a look at the process that led you to acquire so much of the player.

Finally, there may be fear that the player will get injured and disrupt a variety of teams. This is a valid concern but attempting to guess which player will get injured is a far riskier game than overexposure. I have also advocated leaning more for overexposure than underexposure. We have expectations that we have mentioned before, and if we have done the work to project reasonable outcomes for players, put more eggs in those baskets so that when you hit, you really hit. Of course, this brings in some bias, but as always, bias isn’t inherently bad. Be aware of your bias and make sure you are clear about how it plays into your decisions.

COVID

As I mentioned in my Session Eight: Pandemic Psychology article, this season requires us to expect the unexpected. That has certainly been true in week four with a Tennessee Titans breakout, and a late Cam Newton positive test. Important considerations will be the potential or likelihood for this to happen with other teams and players, when in the season this may occur, and the preparation of teams to be able to overcome or limit such an outbreak to just a single week.

As I have encouraged before, as we make roster decisions based on the unexpected nature of the pandemic impacts, continue to consider how we will reflect on such absences following the season (i.e., diminished production due to missed games, offensive weapons if a quarterback missed multiple games, time in the season when absences occurred, etc.). Make sure an unexpected early bye or trip to the COVID IR results in a minor, brief inconvenience rather than alterations to the perception of the player’s overall production.

Closing Thoughts

Which player(s) that had a great start to the season are you downplaying or discrediting? Why is this happening for you?

If the trend continued next week, would that change your reaction? How about a few more weeks? Again, consider why.

What is your largest remaining uncertainty about your dynasty roster(s)? How will these early performances impact it?

What needs to happen to consider the coming weeks successful for your dynasty roster? Is there anything you can do to make this happen?

Author
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Jeremy Schwob

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Jeremy is a doctoral student in clinical psychology at Penn State. He is an avid fan of St. Louis sports and the Dayton Flyers. You can find him advocating for wide receivers and pushing that value is misused as fact on Twitter.