The Psychology of Dynasty Ownership, Session Eight: Pandemic Psychology

Jeremy Schwob

Session Eight: “Pandemic Psychology: Process versus panic”

“There are things known and there are things unknown, and in between are the doors of perception.” – Aldous Huxley

Heading into the 2020 NFL season, we should expect the unexpected. This off-season has been unlike any other, with limitations on scouting leading up to the NFL Draft, and a complete removal of organized team activities (OTAs) or mini-camps after rookies had been slotted to their new teams. As football returned in the form of training camp, it arrived under an especially unique format with delays in initiating padded practices and no preseason games whatsoever. There are unique psychological considerations for dynasty owners to reflect upon compared to previous seasons. Outlined below are psychological observations about our reactions to training camp, the mental exercise of an unusual season that could not be anticipated, and our prospective reflection on this season going forward.

Training camp

Without the typical progression of the off-season, we anxiously awaited a return to football normalcy. As training camp arrived, we welcomed the abundance of information to satisfy our voracious appetites. More so than in years past, many have drooled over each mention of a player they roster like a rambunctious hype man. Conversely, any clip or note about a struggle on a particular play has others perched, ready for a vulturous descent toward the carcass of that player.

Here in lies the problem. With our incessant desire to have football back, we have too heavily emphasized each play of practices and scrimmages. Further, due to this microscopic focus on each bit of information, the timeline of events has been so condensed that we have lost sight of the larger picture. We might have a number of tweets, photos, videos, and beat reporter articles, all in the same day. When we stack a few days on top of each other, that quantity of information feels like a trend has been occurring for a significant period of time. However, we rarely pay attention to every detail over a week of practice during the season.

With this intense focus, there have been considerable emotional reactions to players. Take N’Keal Harry or Ronald Jones, for instance. We saw Harry miss a few practices, then be the target of some comments from teammate Julian Edelman. For Jones, a TikTok length clip of his dropping a pass from Brady.

Each of these players had prior expectations that have obviously not been met to this point. While historical hit rates are fairly low for such players (namely Harry), it seems that this conclusion determined the way that many in the dynasty community reacted to incoming camp information.

Harry’s few rough practices fed into the view that he isn’t going to hit. These practices are exactly what some hoped for to support their conclusion already made last season or earlier in the off-season. The clip of Jones dropping a screen pass was widely used as evidence that his fate has been sealed as a liability in the passing game, and that he will be limited in his role in the backfield. In either case, there seems to be a community tendency to bias the interpretation and importance of incoming information based on what we expect, or hope will happen.

To emphasize what you personally are bringing that could be problematic, I wonder what may occur if you consider whether things would feel differently if the initial report or video clip was the complete opposite. Otherwise, consider if tomorrow’s report is the opposite of the Harry negative buzz or Jones drop.

Fortunately, in the case of Harry we were able to see this play out in the two subsequent practices to his absence. He reportedly strung together strong practices complete with many back shoulder catches, as well as physicality in the run game. If you were extremely reactive to the poor reports, but non-responsive to the positive reports, it seems like you were only feeding on information that fits your pessimistic expectations. Conversely, if you wrote off the poor reports, but highlighted only the positive performances, there is likely a bias for Harry glaring through.

If Jones had caught the pass, there likely would not have been much of a reaction. It may not have been reported. This makes sense as a catch on a screen pass during a drill occurs more frequently than a drop. Though, I also wouldn’t rule out a Jones supporter pointing to his improved pass-catching ability he reportedly works on each off-season.

Tempering your reactions in either direction will allow you to continue collecting and objectively absorbing incoming information. If you notice your bias in one direction more than the other, this honesty with yourself can create an opportunity to intentionally consider the alternate perspective.

It is also important to note that we are relying primarily on information reported out at the discretion of beat reporters. While these individuals are tremendous at their jobs and are a treasured asset to us, they are an initial filter of what is emphasized. What is significant to that beat reporter gains more attention and therefore potential importance. If they didn’t tweet or write about it, it’s as if it didn’t happen. That is inherently problematic.

The Season

Leading into September, it appears that we will have a season. While the plan is to proceed accordingly, there is still the possibility of a shortened season if a team or multiple teams have outbreaks. Regardless, I want to examine the impacts of such a unique season on perceptions of players.

With the looming threat of the three-week COVID IR, depth may be especially important. You’ve probably heard and read that everywhere. Nonetheless, what that means from a dynasty perspective is that difficult decisions about rostering backups, handcuffs, and suddenly important waiver wire options at the expense of developmental players. The extreme pressure of uncertainty may even alter some roster construction philosophies.

Roster construction

Decisions about the current standing of your dynasty roster(s) may change quickly this year. The quicker ramp up period to game action increases the threat of injury, and all the while the dubious threat of the pandemic looms. Although roster construction in dynasty remains a long-term focused foundation, we have seen how quickly there have been shifts in philosophy based on the players entering the league, pushes for scoring format adjustments, and other circumstances within the NFL.

Win-now and rebuilding teams alike, are in my estimation sitting in the position to be least affected by a peculiar season. As the schedule plays out, it may take on a redraft feel, benefiting win-now teams with a variety of depth to withstand uncertain roadblocks. Rebuilding teams may not be impacted as much, but will certainly want to fast-forward through the season.

The biggest impact is likely to be felt by dynasty teams that find themselves somewhere in between. Holding more of a day-by-day, redraft mentality, there may be added incentive to seize an opportunity to push for the fantasy playoffs. However, there is a concurrent pull to take advantage of win-now teams needing reinforcements through trades. The decision may be made easier if there is a devastating injury or pandemic outbreak on such a dynasty squad with limited difference-making depth.

Rookies

More specifically, rookies face a monumental challenge to begin their careers with limited opportunity in the off-season for practice time, work amidst their offenses and defenses, or any opportunity to see live game action against another team. While there have been numerous reports of every rookie from beat reporters, we have an interesting conflict between coaches downplaying initial roles, while beat reporters incessantly making observations of their first time being able to see them in the team’s uniform.

From a dynasty perspective, there should probably be lowered expectations, barring injury or illness ahead of the rookies on the depth chart. Of course, with the unpredictability, such rookies may be thrust into unexpectedly early roles. Interestingly, since there were no preseason games to allow significant run for under-the-radar guys, they may be much more accessible to add to the end of dynasty rosters than in other seasons.

Future rookie picks

Again, rebuilding teams already had their focus squarely on 2021. A strong draft class of early declarations has been unfolding already via NCAA opt-outs due to pandemic concerns. While this likely makes these rebuilding owners even more excited about coming closer to their prized future assets, there may be some evaluation limitations without many of the top prospects participating in the season. Further, it will be more difficult for late risers to make their case for significant draft capital, as Joe Burrow, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Justin Jefferson did this year.

As rookie drafts approach next spring, there will be an interesting reaction to the sheer volume of strong players that are available in rookie drafts, There may be more emphasis at the top of drafts on more “sure thing” prospects, whereas the lack of complete evaluations of third and fourth tier prospects may muddy the waters between second and third round dynasty rookie picks.

While opting-out of the college season protects some of the top draft eligible prospects from the risk of significant in-game injuries and contraction of COVID-19 from athletes at other schools, this is a far cry from being “put in bubble wrap” for the year. We have also seen a number of prospects leading up to the NFL draft injure themselves in training, requiring surgeries and rehab. There is still certainly a chance of lower draft capital than expected or missed time next off-season post-draft as well. It is unclear how many of these players are not planning to attend school at all this academic year. As it stands, college campuses remain locations of elevated risk for contracting COVID-19.

Prospective reflecting on the 2020 season

The greatest impact from the 2020 season may be our perceptions of the season going forward. Even if the season plays out fairly normally, there is a chance COVID-19 case spikes in the NFL with no current plan for a bubble. As we have seen in baseball, a positive test may quickly impact a variety of other players and teams. If a series of positive tests or even outbreaks occur, many important names may not have full 16-game samples for the season. Even if cases are isolated, a quarterback missing games would significantly impact an entire offense from a fantasy perspective. If most of a positional group like wide receiver goes down and must go on the COVID IR, this will have a tremendous impact on a quarterback’s numbers for multiple games. We have also seen that as teams in other sports have had outbreaks, some players have decided not to play the remainder of the season.

Diminished sample sizes

Dynasty team owner reactions will be fascinating to observe. Interpreting this season may be especially difficult if we have smaller sample sizes in the event of a shortened season or games missed for important fantasy players. How will we consider historic comparisons of career trajectories if games are forced to be missed? Do we emphasize someone finishing as a top-12 at their position in the same light we would in a normal season? Do we consider splits more in the cases I described above where either a quarterback or offensive skill group goes on the temporary IR? Each of these questions may come into play for dynasty owners in the event of pandemic disruption.

Under-performance and over-performance

Of particular interest will be how dynasty owners will perceive player production if there are significant pandemic impacts. In the event that a player is having a down year due to injury, COVID-19 issues on their team, or simply not meeting expectations, this may be excused away due to the unprecedented circumstances. Alternatively, if a player is having a breakout campaign during a perfect storm of health issues for impacted teams (i.e., injury or COVID-19), there may be a chance this season is discredited due to unrepeatable conditions.

Lowered salary cap

Declines in the projected salary cap for 2021 will have significant real-world implications for players, but also substantial dynasty repercussions as well. There may be quite a bit of competition on teams with a strong class of declarations, while also a number of presumed team changes. The running back position, in particular, has a number of big names headed to their second contract, including Dalvin CookAlvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Kenyan Drake, Phillip Lindsay, James Conner, Chris Carson, and Marlon Mack. Additionally, other players like Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, and David Johnson, may again be available.

A similar tale of wide receivers can be told with names like Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson, Keenan Allen, Kenny Golladay, AJ Green, and TY Hilton, all in contract years. Teams are certain to be tempted by the various names listed here at running back and wide receiver. However, with less projected money to go around, it makes for an interesting NFL roster construction time period, sending significant shock waves across the dynasty landscape.

Conclusion

In an unparalleled season, it is more important than ever to be honest with yourself about how you are following the news, evaluating current and future players, setting realistic expectations, remaining flexible during a time of uncertainty, and reflecting on the state of your current dynasty roster(s). Remain true to your process during these exciting yet trying times. Keep calm as pandemic concerns will urge you to consider panic moves that work against your dynasty process when the unexpected inevitably occurs.

jeremy schwob