Dynasty Grenades: Leonard Fournette
When thinking about handling a grenade one, thought comes immediately to mind: get rid of it before it goes off.
The concept of this article, and this series, is simple, but I am a simple man and I have simple thoughts. Who are the players you need to move on from prior to their dynasty value imploding? These are players you should trade away before their value goes boom.
I should note, this is strictly a value proposition, not a production one. The players I will advocate trading away could have multiple years of production left in their fantasy careers, but that doesn’t mean their trade value will remain at their current levels, let alone ever increase. Previously I discussed two wide receivers you need to move on from and in this edition, I’ll tackle my biggest “get him off your roster” player at the running back position.
Leonard Fournette, RB JAC
Fournette is the epitome of a “volume back”. Volume is never a bad thing when it comes to running backs, but when they underwhelm with that volume it should set off alarm bells. Last season Fournette’s 265 rushing attempts ranked seventh in the league and he finished as the RB9, which seems fairly efficient at first glance. But his fantasy scoring was buoyed by his unfathomable (and unprecedented) usage in Jacksonville’s passing attack last year.
For reasons unknown, Fournette was targeted an absurd 100 times last season and his 76 receptions on the year actually exceeded his career total of 74 targets entering the 2019 season. Those 100 targets ranked fourth highest for all running backs last year. Just to recap, Fournette had the seventh-most rushing attempts and the fourth most targets at the running back position in 2019. In all, he had the third most opportunities of running back (rushing attempts plus targets). His 4.3 yards per carry ranked 27th at the position and his 6.87 yards per reception ranked 37th for running backs with at least 20 receptions.
Now it has to be noted that Fournette is due for some major touchdown regression, right? That’s what I’ve been told at least, based on his pitiful three total touchdowns scored last year. The problem with that train of thought is that it presupposes that the Jaguars will continue to use him in the same manner as they did last year.
That is a faulty assumption for a couple of reasons. I’ve already noted how inefficient Fournette was with his touches in 2019 and it’s not as if the Jaguars had a winning record in spite of that inefficiency. Instead, the Jaguars went 6-10, seemingly leaving little impetus to follow last year’s offensive blueprint which resulted in 18.8 points per game, the seventh-worst scoring average in the NFL.
A Real Receiving Back
Looking to improve the offense Jacksonville hired Jay Gruden as their offensive coordinator this off-season. The first thing Gruden did? He brought his favorite receiving back from his time as the Washington Football Team head coach along with him down south.
Statistics from Pro Football Reference.
Though Chris Thompson has a lengthy injury history, he has played at least ten or more games each of the past five seasons. Excluding last year when Gruden was fired after five games, in the prior four seasons Thompson averaged 4.5 targets per game which he turned into 3.34 receptions per game, averaging 8.4 yards per reception, nearly a full yard better per catch than Fournette averages thus far in his career.
Extrapolation is always a dangerous endeavor, but Thompson was on pace for 112 targets through five-game last year with Gruden as his head coach. Besides being a more efficient receiver than Fournette, Thompson is just a better receiver, period, and can be used on actual routes as opposed to the dump-offs that Fournette feasted on last season.
Beyond 2020
Thompson eating into Fournette’s targets and Fournette’s own inefficiency are two short-term concerns I have with Fournette. Long term, I have even more concerns.
Namely, the Jacksonville Jaguars absolutely detest having him on their roster. If you have some free time just Google “Jaguars don’t want Leonard Fournette” and peruse the many, many, articles and news blurbs that verify the team’s feelings towards him. There was the time they suspended him during his rookie year for missing a team photoshoot. Or the time, then VP of football operations Tom Coughlin, trashed him for his behavior on the sidelines. Or the time the Jaguars declined Fournette’s fifth-year option and then attempted to trade him away for anything at all, but failed.
It’s clear as day that Fournette won’t be returning to Jacksonville in 2021 and he enters free agency with a historic running back class that could potentially be headlined by Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Chris Carson, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, Kenyan Drake, Marlon Mack, Kareem Hunt, and Matt Breida. Fournette will be looking for a new home and if he’s going to continue to produce he’s going to need to find a situation that’s been as advantageous as Jacksonville has been to him his first three years in the league.
Overvalued
What I find interesting is that the dynasty community is largely ignoring all the red flags surrounding Fournette. His positional ADP of 15 indicates that the community expects him to produce at an RB1/high RB2 level.
His overall ADP also perplexes me because there isn’t one player at or around his ADP who I wouldn’t rather have on my dynasty roster going forward.
I could understand (if not condone) drafting Fournette as the 13th running back off the board in redraft leagues if you wanted to ignore his inefficiency, or the fact that there is little to no chance that he sees anything resembling 100 targets in 2020. But to draft Fournette as the 13th back in dynasty leagues is an absolute losing move. His value is tied to volume. That volume will surely see a decrease in 2020 and we have no idea if he’ll ever be a starter again after the 2020 season.
Using our Dynasty Trade Finder brings up several interesting options when attempting to trade Fournette away. Of the trades listed below my personal favorite is trading Fournette away for Marquise Brown and Antonio Gibson.
I strongly suggest you use this tool to help you form a trade offer to get the most value you can for Fournette today. Don’t wait until the season starts and Chris Thompson takes all of his passing work and Fournette’s value drops. Don’t wait until the 2021 off-season when Fournette is looking for a job as a committee back somewhere and his value falls even further.
Trade him today and get this grenade off of your roster.
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