2020 Summer Sleeper: Philadelphia Eagles

Shane Manila

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

Before we get to my sleeper for the Philadelphia Eagles, let’s discuss who it isn’t.

It’s not Boston Scott. Scott has an ADP of 156, so he’s more of a “buy low” than “sleeper” type to me. I think everyone also already recognizes the upside he possesses, especially if Miles Sanders were to miss any time.

It’s also not JJ Arcega-Whiteside, even if his current ADP of 206, would place him firmly in the “sleeper” range. JJAW is a player I would identify as being a “bounceback candidate”. For this series, I wanted to dig just a tad deeper.

Greg Ward, WR

Category: Deep Sleeper

Ward is most assuredly a deep sleeper. He’s not being drafted among the top 278 players overall or among the top 112 wide receivers per DLF’s most recent ADP. The poor guy barely even has a player page on DLF.

Just for comparison purposes, take a look at former Eagle wide receiver Nelson Agholor’s page. So yeah, let’s just say Ward isn’t a highly-coveted asset in the dynasty community. He is the epitome of a throw-in in a trade if he’s not sitting on your league’s waiver wire waiting for any team to pick him up. With the cost only being a roster spot, Ward is worth picking up today in leagues where you roster 25 or more players.

After finishing a four-year career at Houston as a dual-threat quarterback, Ward signed with the Eagles as an undrafted free agent in May of 2017.

screen shot 2020 07 13 at 15.45.35 screen shot 2020 07 13 at 15.45.43

College statistics from sports-reference.com.

Ward converted to the wide receiver position while on the Eagles practice squad and had been a member of the organization, off and on, since that time. He joined the San Antonio Commanders when the AAF launched, and is tied for the most receptions in the history of the franchise (sure it was only eight games, but still).

Once the AAF folded, Ward rejoined the Eagles again as a practice squad member in 2019. After a series of unfortunate events left Philadelphia starting players who were street free agents two weeks prior to joining the roster, Ward finally got his chance to start in the NFL for the first time in week 12.

word image 33

Image from FantasyData.

Ward saw at least five targets in five of his six games, and at between seven and nine targets in five of those games. As you may have deduced from his minuscule yards per target, and yardage totals, he is a slot receiver and nothing more. But that’s okay. Not every player on your roster is going to give you 20 points per week. Ward did average 12.1 fantasy points per game the final four weeks of the season though.

Despite registering a stat in only six games, Ward finished sixth on the team in targets with 40. After watching ball after ball bounce off the hands of a receiver every week, Ward was a welcome respite. His 70.0% catch rate finished second among Eagle receivers. He only trailed only DeSean Jackson’s 90% catch rate which was built on just ten targets. Out of all Eagle pass-catchers who saw at least 40 targets, only Miles Sanders (79.4%) had a better catch rate than Ward. Obviously, as a slot receiver Ward should have a high catch rate. Just don’t tell that to the player he replaced in the slot, Nelson Agholor, who’s 56.5% catch rate helped lead to one of the greatest videos in the history of mankind:

One could argue that the additions to the wide receiver room, as well as the wide receivers returning from injury, could be the reason for concern when contemplating just how much volume Ward can expect to see in 2020 (and beyond). High passing volume is one thing that is certain when it comes to the Eagles offense, though. The Eagles have ranked in the top nine each of the past two seasons in pass attempts per game, and in three of four seasons under Doug Pederson.

While the Eagles did draft Jalen Reagor in the first round of the NFL Draft, as well John Hightower in the fifth and Quez Watkins in the sixth, none of those players are slot receivers. In fact, the Eagles have gone out of their way to stress that Reagor will focus primarily on the “Z” role at the start of his career. Alshon Jeffery, the “X receiver”, is recovering from surgery after suffering a Lisfranc injury in December of last year. The Eagles haven’t provided any timeline for his return, and Lisfranc injuries are notorious for lingering. DeSean Jackson, the “Z receiver”, is now 33 years old and has played in nine or fewer games in three out of his last five seasons. The team also added Marquise Goodwin, but he has his own, long history of being unable to play.

Even if Jackson, Jeffery and Goodwin reverse their own recent history and stay healthy for most of the 2020 season, there’s almost no chance any of those receivers will return in 2021. Per Spotrac, the Eagles are currently over the 2021 salary cap by almost $52 million and can save $27.3 million by cutting Jackson, Jeffery, and Goodwin, once the 2020 season concludes. There is also a small chance that Jackson and Goodwin are cut by the Eagles for their recent anti-semitic social media posts. Though the chances of either player receiving any discipline are remote as of this date, it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

One player who will still be on the roster come 2021 is JJ Arcega-Whiteside. It’s nearly impossible to imagine that Arcega-Whiteside won’t improve upon his disastrous rookie season, but he’s also isn’t a slot receiver, and shouldn’t compete for the same types of targets that Ward would receive. There’s also the distinct possibility that Arcega-Whiteside is just bad at football, but that’s a story left to be examined on another day.

The Eagles wide receiver group is constructed very oddly. There’s a redundancy of “X” and “Z” receivers, but no typical slot receivers outside of Greg Ward, and there’s no one to challenge him for the starting role. He’s not someone I would want to start in leagues where you start fewer than ten players, but in leagues where you start ten or more, he could provide you low-end flex worthy production. It’s possible that Ward is wavier wire fodder by week four, but again his cost makes that a risk worth taking.

shane manila