Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.
Name: CeeDee Lamb
Position: Wide receiver
Pro Team: Dallas Cowboys
College Team: Oklahoma Sooners
Draft Status: Round one, 17th overall
VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS
COMBINE REVIEW
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 198 pounds
- Arms: 32 1/4”
- Hands: 9 1/4”
- 40-yard dash: 4.5 seconds
- Vertical jump: 34 1/2”
- Broad jump: 124”
- Bench press: 11 reps
STRENGTHS
- Big-play receiver and a threat across all levels of the field.
- Yards-after-catch threat.
- 21.4 yards per catch in 2019.
- Hands-catcher who plucks the ball out of the air. Strong hands for contested catches and extends his arms in traffic.
- Plays much faster than his 40-yard dash time suggests.
- Incredible start-stop-go ability in his routes and with the ball in his hands.
- Great body control when the ball is in the air.
- Leaner build but able to shake off arm tackles and fight through traffic.
- Strong blocker in the run game.
- Great open field vision and creative runner as a ball carrier.
- Creates separation with his frame and footwork. Has room to grow as a route runner and can become elite with more work.
WEAKNESSES
- Needs to add muscle to be a true alpha outside receiver.
- Can work on refining his craft as a route runner. Wasted motions in his routes will be exposed by NFL defensive backs.
- Will have a steep learning curve going from Big 12 defenses to the NFL.
- His release is limited by frame and could struggle with press coverage.
OPPORTUNITIES
Lamb is lucky enough to have gone from playing in the Oklahoma system where he had Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts throwing him the ball now to Dallas with Dak Prescott.
The combine was not Lamb’s place to shine as he posted rather pedestrian workout numbers. Using the DLF Player Combine Performance App, we can see that his performance was not overly impressive. However, this failed to impact his landing spot as the Cowboys made Lamb the third WR selected and the 17th player drafted overall.
Some fantasy owners became distressed when he landed with Dallas in what might be considered a crowded situation. In a receiver room that already features Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, it might be tough for Lamb to jump right into a high-volume situation. The team did part ways with Jason Witten and Randall Cobb though, who had 83 targets each last season.
The Cowboys were in the bottom half of run-pass ratio, throwing the ball only 57% of the time under Jason Garrett last season – the largest percentage of pass plays that Garrett has run in the past four seasons. This should change as Mike McCarthy steps in as head coach after the team released Garrett this off-season. During McCarthy’s last three seasons in Green Bay (2016-2018 seasons), the lowest run-pass ratio for the Packers was 59% passes.
The hope with McCarthy coming to Dallas is that he brings this more aggressive passing strategy. From 2016-2018, both the Cowboys and Packers averaged about the same number of total plays run per game.
With the vacated targets from Witten and Cobb plus an uptick in passing volume, it is reasonable that Lamb should get a steady workload as a rookie. The quality of the targets with Cooper and Gallup drawing coverage should also be seen as a positive.
THREATS
Dallas gave Cooper a large contract this off-season, and have former third-round draft pick Gallup on the roster. Cooper’s big five-year contract does have an out in 2022, where the team can release him and free up $16 million in cap space. Gallup improved in his sophomore season, going over 1,000 yards and tripling his touchdown output (six touchdowns compared to two in 2018).
Lamb fits in well with the existing skill sets brought by Cooper and Gallup. His ability to play out of the slot and on the outside will be an added benefit with his versatility. But the two existing starters could hog the top targets early.
SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS
With Cobb and Witten leaving, there should be plenty of chances for Lamb to get on the field in 2020. When we factor in draft capital, fantasy owners should be excited about what is ahead. Dallas needs simply to ensure that Dak Prescott is on the field playing with his new talented trio of receivers.
LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS
The talent is there for Lamb. He is also placed with a strong quarterback and has two talented receivers to help him learn the game. I would not expect a rookie season similar to AJ Brown or DK Metcalf for him, but the opportunity is there for such an early breakout.
Lamb will rise to be a WR1 in fantasy. He does not possess elite speed, but plenty of other top-tier receivers have succeeded without blazing 40 times. His footwork and athleticism will be what eventually separates him into the upper tiers of elite receivers. Focus and learning his craft to truly become elite at route running will boost his stock.
Remember, the team has an out from Cooper’s contract in 2022 if you are overly concerned about the long term.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON
I saw a comparison to Chad Johnson and that is one of my favorite ones to make. Ochocinco had some of the best footwork and subtle moves to set up his routes. I see plenty of the raw beginnings of that talent with Lamb. Continued learning and development of his game will only cement the comparison.
PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE
According to our Rookie ADP, Lamb is currently 5.7 on average in the May rookie mock ADP. He is currently the first receiver taken in rookie drafts. In superflex rookie draft ADP, Lamb is going at 8.5 thus far in May ADP.
With a group of very talented running backs coming out in 2020, receivers like Jerry Jeudy and Lamb are available in the middle of the first round for fantasy drafters. Don’t shy away. Load up, and grab the next great Cowboys star to don the 88 jersey.
Pete is a Western Washington University (Go Vikings! Undefeated at Football since 2009!) History grad with a doctorate in dynasty football, from a certificate he bought online. He prefers stats and analytics but realizes film grinding is an important part of the process. Dabbles in "Mild Takes" and believes in the process.
