Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Position: Running back

Pro Team: Kansas City Chiefs

College Team: LSU Tigers

Draft Status: Round one, 32nd overall

Video Highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5w_aZOtTCwo

Combine Review

• Height: 5’7″
• Weight: 207 lbs
• Arms: 29″
• Hands: 9 5/8″
• 40-yard dash: 4.60 seconds
• Bench press: 15 reps
• Three-cone: N/A
• Vertical jump: 39.5″
• Broad jump: 123″

Strengths

• Best route-runner and receiving back of the class
• Elite short-area agility and burst
• Excellent vision and ability to read blocks
• Great contact balance and elusiveness
• Matchup nightmare for linebackers who get put on skates when lined up against him
• Excels in tight spaces and finding creases in between tackles

Weaknesses

• Unwilling in pass protection, complete liability
• Lacks top-end speed and frequently caught from behind
• May struggle to break away from NFL level competition
• Undersized for typical workhorse role

Opportunities

We could not have scripted a better landing spot for Edwards-Helaire. He hit the jackpot with the Chiefs who drafted him with the last pick of the first round. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes hand-picked him to fit into their offense and Reid was quoted comparing him to one of his former players in Brian Westbrook. According to Scott Barrett, Reid’s RB1 has finished top 8 in 12 of the last 16 seasons for a 75% clip. Under Mahomes, the Chiefs running backs average 1.76 touchdowns per game.

The Westbrook parallel makes the landing spot incredibly juicy. Westbrook had a five-year stretch under Reid where he averaged seven targets per game. As a full-time starter between 2004 and 2008, he averaged 21.6 PPR points per game while finishing as the RB10 or better every single year including as the RB1 overall in 2007 with 24.7 PPG. The 2020 Chiefs offense is a more potent version of the 2007 Eagles so it’s not hyperbole to say the ceiling might be even higher for Edwards-Helaire.

There were a lot of running backs who landed into great situations in the draft but Edwards-Helaire to the Chiefs leads the pack. Many have moved him into their rookie RB1 overall slot and based on the opportunity outlined above, I’d say it’s justified. He may not be the most talented of the class but in terms of situation, fit and opportunity, it’s hard to make an argument for another running back.

Threats

The Chiefs backfield is still a bit muddy. Previous benchwarmers like Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson are still there but I don’t think they’re a real threat to Edwards-Helaire’s opportunity at all. They also signed DeAndre Washington in the off-season who was a backup on the Las Vegas Raiders so I wouldn’t expect him to do much in terms of limiting Edwards-Helaire’s volume.

The only relevant threat to touches for Edwards-Helaire is veteran Damien Williams who performed well when healthy last season. He’s signed through 2020 so expect him to get some work as part of the rotation. He’s also a capable pass-catcher who can steal some third-down passing work. The reason why this is relevant is because of how big of a liability Edwards-Helaire is in pass protection. If he is unable to transition successfully, it may be hard for him to capture a true workhorse role. We can find some comfort here by looking at Kareem Hunt, who also struggled mightily in this area as a rookie but was still able to produce at an elite level. I’m also assuming the Chiefs drafted him with this understanding so likely have a workaround in place.

Short-Term Expectations

Given his first-round pedigree, I expect Edwards-Helaire to become an immediate contributor and starter for your fantasy teams. He will likely be in some form of a committee while splitting touches with Damien Williams to start the year but should quickly establish himself as the clear leader by early in the season while growing his role over time.

Eventually, I expect Edwards-Helaire to fully supplant Williams and become the clear leader of the backfield with a 60 to 70 percent opportunity share by the end of the season. If he achieves this, there’s very little doubt in my mind he will produce as a top ten running back with top-five overall upside.

Long-Term Expectations

If we’re assessing the talent in the backfield, there really isn’t anyone close to Edwards-Helaire from a talent perspective. Even though Williams presents some near term threats, the future of the Chiefs backfield lies with Edwards-Helaire as Williams won’t be around for 2021.

The fantasy community has been chasing the next Alvin Kamara for years now and Edwards-Helaire has answered the call. Make no mistake, he is a fantasy goldmine and should not be passed on for any reason.

NFL Player Comparison

Reid made this a pretty easy one as he came out and called him a better version of Westbrook. The comparison fits quite well from a physical perspective as both players are smaller in stature when compared to your typical lead backs. They even tested similarly as you can see from Westbrook’s combine performance below per NFL Combine Results.

Projected Rookie Draft Range

It’s no surprise Edwards-Helaire is one of the biggest risers in ADP coming out of the draft. Prior to the NFL draft, he was the RB5 and seventh rookie off the board per DLF April standard rookie ADP and the 11th rookie off the board per DLF April superflex rookie ADP.

As of the most recent May MFL rookie ADP, he has firmly planted himself as the RB1 and first rookie off the board in standard leagues and the second rookie off the board in superflex leagues. While you can certainly make a case for other pre-draft favorites, I don’t really see him surrendering his throne between now and the season.