2020 Dynasty Capsule: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

Quarterback

Jameis Winston (ADP 136.67, QB13)

Age: 26

It’s hard to believe Winston is only 26 years old. Seems like just yesterday when he was out there slinging the rock for an interception for every touchdown. Oh wait, that’s exactly what he did this season when he threw for 33 touchdowns to 30 interceptions averaging nearly two interceptions per game. I can’t wait for his 30 for 30.

Despite being a turnover machine, he still finished as the overall QB5, throwing for 5,109 yards. He might not be the greatest QB in real life but from a fantasy perspective, Winston was fantastic. He truly is a national treasure.

His ADP has remained relatively flat in the QB10-13 over the last year which is well below his production. It’s not a big surprise, given the general belief by most in the community that he will be replaced in the near future.

Honestly, I can’t say the concerns are unwarranted as Winston is a much better fantasy asset than a real life quarterback. His lack of development over the course of the last few years is worrisome. He’s always struggled with ball security and decision making, and it doesn’t look like it’s gotten much better in the last year as he set a career high in interceptions.

He’s an unrestricted free agent in 2020. It’s unclear whether the Buccaneers plan to resign him. Bruce Arians isn’t known for his patience and has enjoyed success deploying veterans in the past. There’s a chance Winston gets franchise-tagged or they just let him walk in the off-season.

In a single QB, I’m fine with taking the risk and buying him on the cheap in case he stays or lands in another good situation, but in superflex formats, I’m staying away. He’s young and has shown his upside, but I’m not sure if he will improve enough to retain a long-term role in the NFL.

Running Back

Ronald Jones (ADP: 89.17, RB30)

Age: 22

Seemed like it was just yesterday some were touting Jones as the RB1 of the 2018 class ahead of Saquon Barkley. Yes, it was a real thing. I was completely out on him myself for a multitude of reasons, but to each their own. There were reports about his poor work ethic which manifested as he was unable to overtake quintessential J.A.G. Peyton Barber for the lead role.

After flopping in spectacular fashion as a rookie, he showed improvement in his sophomore year, resulting in some recovery in his ADP. Still nowhere near the peaks of his rookie season, but at least he’s got some value now.

The general belief is the Buccaneers will add someone from the incoming crop of rookie running backs and free agents. I can’t help but ask, what if they don’t add anyone? Barber is a free agent which gives Jones a path to potentially lead the backfield, and starting running backs don’t come cheap. I’m not the biggest fan but it’s hard to pass RoJo up at these prices.

According to the Trade Analyzer, his current value is best represented by the 2020 rookie 2.05 which seems about right. I’ve also included some examples of recent trades from the Dynasty Trade Finder below.

Based on the values above, I’d be willing to grab a couple shares just in case as he’s only 22 years old.

Peyton Barber (ADP: 214.83, RB66)

Age: 25

I can’t believe Barber is only 25. He seems like one of those guys who’s been in the league forever. He’s a free agent this year, so it’s unclear if he will even be on the team next season. To be honest, he’s a J.A.G. and has shown nothing special in his opportunities as a starter so far. The chances Barber got were due to Jones shooting himself in the foot rather than Barber doing anything worthy.

My interest in Barber has more to do with him leaving and the impact on Jones as a potential starter than gauging his value as a standalone player. As of right now, he’s nothing more than an end of the bench stash.

Dare Ogunbowale (ADP: 239.5, RB87)

Age: 25

The Twitter hype machine drove Ogunbowale into the top-200 players before the season started. Part of it was the Jones and Barber hate, and part of it was him being viewed as the main pass-catching back. Either way, the Twitter hype phenomenon never ceases to amaze me. As of right now, he’s not even really worth a bench stash unless it’s in super deep leagues.

Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin (ADP: 12.17, WR5)

Age: 23

It’s official, Godwin has entered the top five dynasty wide receiver group with a true breakout season in his third year as a pro. He was one of the most hyped players last off-season, and it was for good reason. He had an elite prospect profile and improved each year as a pro.

Arians came in and revamped the offense to feature Godwin, and boy did it pay off. Evidently, the off-season hype was not enough as Godwin finished as the overall WR2 despite missing two games. His ceiling was as high as anyone.

According to DLF’s new Yearly Data App, he had five WR1 finishes and finished in the top three on three separate occasions. He has truly cemented himself as a cornerstone dynasty asset and will likely be too hard to attain going forward. I have included some recent examples from the Trade Finder below:

Aside from the first trade (which doesn’t make much sense to me), the rest of the examples are a bit too rich for my blood.

One potential concern is the uncertainty around Winston’s future with the team. Godwin benefited greatly from a pass heavy “forget and chuck it” mentality that centered around Winston as a passer. If Winston is gone, I’d be slightly concerned with whether or not he can retain his elite volume going forward. Not enough of a concern to deter me from rostering him, but certainly something worth monitoring.

Mike Evans (ADP: 13.50, WR6)

Age: 26

Many smarter than I called for Godwin surpassing Evans this year. I wasn’t there myself because I still viewed Evans as the WR1, but Winston ensured there was more than enough for both to eat. Evans finished the year as the overall WR16 on only 13 games, but was the WR4 on a points-per-game basis. Naturally, he is currently being taken just one spot after Godwin as the sixth wide receiver off the board.

The Yearly Data App shows the metaphorical passing of the torch in Tampa Bay.

Despite the Twitter narrative of Evans as a boom-bust receiver and Godwin as the “safer” option, we can see from the tool this was a bit of an exaggeration. Their floor-to-ceiling combo is very similar, with Godwin having more finishes in the WR13 to WR24 range but also more finishes outside the top-36.

Make no mistake, both Evans and Godwin are elite young dynasty WRs and should be treated as such. If you own either one, thank your lucky stars and enjoy the ride. If you don’t, you’re better off looking elsewhere as both will be relatively costly to acquire, although Evans is likely the cheaper option.

Breshad Perriman (ADP: 135.17, WR61)

Age: 26

2019 will forever be known as the year of the fifth-year breakout. Although Perriman didn’t hit the highs of his fellow classmate DeVante Parker, he still impressed in the limited opportunities he did get.

He was the third wheel to the Godwin-Evans duo for the majority of the season. He first got his time to shine when Evans was hurt, and really exploded onto the scene when both Evans and Godwin were out. He finished the final five weeks with over 80 yards or a touchdown in every single game, including three games with over 100 yards – just the type of ceiling you want to see out of a potential future WR1.

Perriman is an unrestricted free agent heading into 2020, and with some key teams really lacking talent at the position, I’m hopeful he can find a new home. My top landing spots for him include the Eagles, Packers and Saints. Whether he becomes the lead dog or the secondary receiver, he’s shown he’s more than capable of producing this season.

He’s been one of my top cheap targets this off-season. His cost doesn’t reflect his potential upside at all, so I’m buying everywhere I can. According to the Trade Analyzer, his value is equivalent to the 2020 rookie 2.12. I’ve been acquiring him for multiple third and fourth round picks which is an absolute steal. In fact, you can see my recent trade in the Trade Finder at #4:

I would take the Perriman side in every one of these trades. Clearly the community has yet to catch up, so make sure you are taking advantage. Hopefully, I’ll have added a couple more shares before this article is released!

Justin Watson (ADP: 224.17, WR92)

Age: 23

Watson flashed in his limited action toward the end of the year with both Evans and Godwin out of the lineup. He’s been a personal favorite deep bench stash of mine as I’m drawn to his analytical profile. Watson broke out as a 19-year-old and has a 98th percentile college dominator of 60.3%. He’s also a 91st percentile SPARQ athlete. He went to Penn so he faced much weaker competition, which is likely why he was drafted in the fifth round. With Perriman potentially out the door, he is a great stash who is virtually free.

Tight End

OJ Howard (ADP: 109.17, TE12)

Age: 25

One of the sadder stories of 2019 was OJ Howard and his fall from grace. Viewed as a consensus top five dynasty tight end, he simply did not live up to the hype as reflected by the recent crash in his ADP.

Some analysts were smart enough to caution against drafting him given Arians’ history with the position but the majority ignored it in the hopes his talent would overcome. Now in the final year of his contract, it’s unclear what the best path forward is.

Personally, I think he’s a hold for now because the market to sell is weak and the cost to acquire is still relatively high given what most people invested to acquire him. His best hope is if he’s traded to another tight end-needy team like the Patriots, but I’m not sure how likely that is given the Buccaneers’ asking price of a future first-round pick. With Winston’s future also up in the air, the worst case is the Buccaneers just sit on him for another year.

Cameron Brate (ADP: 235.25)

Age: 28

For multiple years now, Brate has been the thorn in the side of Howard’s potential ceiling, and 2019 was no different. Every time Brate got a target, I wanted to smash a plate because it’s so obvious Howard is the superior talent. His production is incredibly spotty and entirely touchdown dependent. Personally, I’m not wasting any roster slots on Brate.