2020 Dynasty Capsule: Cleveland Browns

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield (ADP 118.67, QB10)

Age: 24

Mayfield – and the entire Browns offense – disappointed in spectacular fashion this season, resulting in his precipitous drop in ADP. According to DLF’s ADP Over Time, he actually leapt Deshaun Watson at one point as the dynasty QB2 second only to Patrick Mahomes.

The hype was in full effect after one of the more impressive starts to a career for a rookie QB. The former Heisman winner and first overall pick seemed to have everything in line as he took over as the starter mid-season, leading the Browns to multiple wins while displaying elite accuracy.

Last season, though, was the exact reverse. He threw 21 interceptions to only 22 touchdowns. He was basically Jameis Winston, but with less throwing volume. Freddie Kitchens certainly didn’t set him up for success as the worst play caller in the NFL.

His recent appearances in the media showed he’s finally taking a step in the right direction, as he found his second year as a pro to be a humbling experience. Although recent photos of his dad-bod isn’t necessarily what you want to see from a franchise quarterback, I’d say the mental aspect is much more important.

Personally, I’m still a believer in Mayfield and more than willing to invest at his current cost, especially in superflex formats given his youth and potential. See below for some recent examples of trades from DLF’s Trade Finder:

Running Back

Nick Chubb (ADP: 10, RB6)

Age: 24

It only took two seasons for Chubb to establish himself as one of the top young backs, as reflected in his rising ADP. I put him on par with Ezekiel Elliott as the two best pure runners in the NFL.

Some might think of Chubb’s 2019 year as a disappointing performance, but I’m not one of them. He finished as the overall RB8 despite getting hit with heavy negative touchdown variance, which I covered in my TD Regression Deep Dive Series. If he converts at a league average level or even just what we saw in 2018, I can see him easily jumping into the top five and returning his ADP investment.

The addition of former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski also bodes well for Chubb and the rest of the Browns’ running game. If they look anything like the Vikings did in 2019, he is going to explode in 2020.

Despite his lofty ADP, recent trades show he is still attainable at a reasonable price. The last two trades in particular are definitely ones I would smash in a heartbeat to acquire a young stud running back to build around.

Kareem Hunt (ADP: 60.17, RB24)

Age: 25

I can’t even imagine what it was like for Hunt watching his former team win the Super Bowl without him. He was one of the top young running backs in the league before getting suspended and has now found a new home in Cleveland as a backup.

When he finally returned to the field after serving his suspension, he looked every bit as good as before constantly breaking tackles to gain extra yards. Unfortunately, his ceiling is severely capped by Chubb, but both were still weekly starters as seen in the positional finishes chart below using the Yearly Data App:

Hunt is a restricted free agent this year. I expect the Browns to place a tender and match any offers to keep him there. Getting a back with his level of talent for less than two million is a steal. He may be worth the investment now before he hits the open market next year, as we’ve seen his potential ceiling when given a lead role.

According to the Dynasty Trade Analyzer, his value is closest to the 2020 rookie 1.08. That’s a bit rich for me, but if he falls later in the first or early second round I’m definitely smashing buy.

One thing to note is his recent run-in with the law when he got pulled over by the police with open vodka bottles and admitted on the dash cam he would have failed a drug test. It doesn’t seem like there will be repercussions in the near-term, but Andrew Berry and Jimmy Haslam have both made it clear he’s on a very short leash. There’s also the overhang of what Roger Goodell might do, so there’s no shortage of risk. The juice may still be worth the squeeze if you can get him for a decent price.

Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham (ADP: 17.5, WR8)

Age: 27

As Mayfield fell, so did Beckham. All of us were excited to see the marriage between the young and accurate quarterback with a generational receiving talent. If you told me at this time last year that Mayfield was going to be a downgrade from Eli Manning, I would’ve laughed you out of the building. Sadly, here we are living the nightmare most of us didn’t imagine would be possible. For whatever reason, they were not at all on the same page this season. We also later learned that Beckham dealt with a painful hernia injury which required surgery in the off-season.

One of our DLF writers recently penned an article on the impact of changing teams on wide receiver production that had some interesting takeaways. We typically see a dip in the first transition year followed by a boost in year two. It makes sense given we know how complicated new offenses are to learn and the amount of time it takes to build chemistry. I’d say there are brighter days ahead for the young duo in Cleveland.

The factors discussed above at least partially explain the slow year and provide us with justifiable hope for improvement heading into his second year with the Browns. I’m not ready to throw in a towel just yet.

Jarvis Landry (ADP: 60, WR31)

Age: 27

Landry is one of the most disrespected and undervalued wide receivers available. Despite finishing as a low-end WR1, his current ADP is still a WR3. I don’t think people realize he’s still a young player in his prime given it feels like he’s been in the league forever.

I’m guilty of this myself but when we look at his production, the value is hard to deny. Based on the ADP/Rank vs PPG tool, Landry almost always outperforms his ADP.

From a trade value perspective, it seems like his value is still holding quite high. DLF’s Dynasty Trade Analyzer has him at a 2020 rookie 1.06 which is too rich. However, when I look at recent trades using the Trade Finder, he’s definitely still attainable. I would happily add him to my lineups based on trades #1, #2 and #5.

Rashard Higgins (ADP: 229.67, WR97)

Age: 25

I must admit, I was rather disappointed with the outcome for Higgins last season. He showed some promise and a connection with Mayfield last year. He also has an attractive analytics profile, but the pair just weren’t able to pull it together in 2019. He is an unrestricted free agent in 2020. There are plenty of NFL rosters devoid of talent at the position, so I’m fine with throwing a dart to see where he sticks. Just make sure you appropriately manage your expectations.

Regardless of landing spot, he’ll likely be nothing more than a WR5 with some WR4 upside.

Tight End

David Njoku (ADP: 117.67, TE13)

Age: 23

Njoku was viewed as a potential high upside breakout tight end coming into the year, but it was not meant to be as he suffered an injury in week two and would not return until week 13. Even in the games he was active, it was clear he was not going to be a focal point of the offense.

However bad we all though Bruce Arians is for tight ends, Kitchens is worse. The injury on top of the poor performance led to his gradual ADP decline.

Personally, I’m a buyer at these prices. He fits the profile of tight ends I like to pursue. He’s still incredibly young and has a lot of time to develop. He’s also an elite athlete which you can see in his MockDraftable profile below. I typically don’t place too much weight on the combine, except when it comes to tight ends where athleticism matters much more.

With Kitchens gone, I’m hoping Stefanski can install an offense that properly utilizes his skill set and potentially leads to his long awaited breakout. According to the Yearly Data App, even Kyle Rudolph managed three top-five finishes under Stefanski, so I’m hoping the much more talented Njoku can thrive as well.

Ricky Seals-Jones (ADP: 231)

Age: 24

I was floored when I realized how young Seals-Jones is, since he’s already been in the league for three years. Unfortunately, his youth is where the good news ends. Even with the injury to Njoku, he was barely able to get on the field and rarely produced even when he did. At the height of his powers, he was being taken as a low-end TE2 with upside, but currently he’s nothing more than a super deep bench stash in tight end premium leagues.