A View from the 1.05: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 21, 2020

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now just days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

1.05

The Pick: Jerry Jeudy, WR

In a typical year, Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy would be the runaway choice as the WR1, but in this stacked class, he’s fallen slightly behind CeeDee Lamb – that should tell you more about the class than it does either talented wideout. Jeudy has a high ceiling and has been proclaimed as one of the best pure route runners to enter the league in years. Jeudy is slightly undersized at just 193 pounds on his 6’2” frame but has burst and evasiveness to avoid tacklers. Likely to be a top-15 pick in the NFL Draft, players like Jeudy are not often available at the 1.05 pick in rookie drafts.

Possible Pivots

With a crowded top tier of five players, there is a very good chance Jeudy will not last to the fifth spot. If he is gone, that means JK Dobbins, CeeDee Lamb or D’Andre Swift are available instead.

Trade Value

1.05, 2021 1st for Alvin Kamara
1.05, James Conner, Le’Veon Bell for 1.01
1.05, 2.01 for 1.03, 2.05

Super-Flex Options: CeeDee Lamb, WR

Many of the things that can said of Jeudy are also true about Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb but he might be even better. Lamb is tall and lanky but plays like a beefcake after the catch. He and Jeudy are both exciting targets in the top half of rookie drafts.

2.05

The Pick: Tua Tagovailoa, QB

What a path it has been so far for Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. After taking over for former Crimson Tide starter Jalen Hurts, Tagovailoa was on his way to becoming the top overall pick and some were even predicting multiple Heisman wins. Of course, things derailed as Tagovailoa dealt with multiple injuries, including a dislocated hip that some thought could end his career. Reports of Tagovailoa’s recovery have been inconsistent but recent reports have the quarterback falling down draft boards. While he’s likely to sit all or most of his rookie season, he will also fall to the middle of the second round of rookie drafts.

Possible Pivots

If we see Tagovailoa’s value change or if you are simply set at the quarterback position, instead consider Bryan Edwards, AJ Dillon or Brandon Aiyuk with this second-round pick.

Trade Value

2.05, 2021 1st for Marquise Brown, 2.07
2.05, Noah Fant, 3.11 for Stefon Diggs
2.05, 2.01 for Darius Slayton

Super-Flex Options: Laviska Shenault, WR

A year ago, Laviska Shenault was in the conversation to be the top overall rookie pick, or at least the top receiver chosen. A final college season slowed by injuries, which then impacted his Combine and pre-draft availability have sent Shenault’s value tumbling. His ultimate draft value will be decided as a result of his draft capital. Many seem to think he can still be a first-rounder in the NFL and if that’s the case, he’ll be moving up rookie board as well.

3.05

The Pick: Jalen Hurts, QB

After losing his job to projected first-rounder Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts left Alabama and landed with the Sooners, playing so well he contended for the Heisman Trophy and a national title. Around the dynasty community, the hype has been steadily building in Hurts favor as he follows the path of other recent running quarterbacks. The success of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray, among others, will benefit Hurts.

Possible Pivots

If you selected Tagovailoa in the previous round, you probably won’t be doubling down with Hurts. If that’s the case, other available options include Donovan Peoples-Jones, Chase Claypool and Eno Benjamin.

Trade Value

3.05, N’Keal Harry for Darrell Henderson, Hayden Hurst
3.05, Adam Thielen for David Johnson
3.05, 4.05 for Tre’Quan Smith

Super-Flex Options: Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR

Three years ago Donovan Peoples-Jones entered Michigan as the top receiver recruit in the country, yet he never lived up to the hype. He still has all the tools, along with the ideal size of an alpha wideout, but dynasty players can’t really trust him to put it together. Peoples-Jones is likely to work out of the slot as a pro, if he sticks around.

4.05

The Pick: DeeJay Dallas, RB

A surprise early declare, DeeJay Dallas enjoyed his best college season as a junior, but also suffered an elbow injury that cut short his season. Dallas converted from quarterback to receiver and finally to running back. Dallas has the ideal size and is a solid contributor in the pass game, as well. He’s well worth a flier in the fourth round.

Possible Pivots

Other options available late in the rookie draft include Brycen Hopkins, Isaiah Hodgins, and Van Jefferson.

Super-Flex Options: Devin Duvernay, WR

Devin Duvernay landed at Texas after a commitment to a troubled Baylor program and made a quick impact for Texas. Duvernay’s production was inconsistent but he finished strong with his best season. Duvernay has excellent speed and has been projected to be drafted as early as the third round in the NFL Draft, which would boost his fantasy value.

Author
Recent Posts

Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.