2020 NFL Draft Prospect – D’Andre Swift, RB Georgia
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2020 NFL Draft Prospect D’Andre Swift, RB from Georgia. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!
We are blessed with multiple highly-coveted running back prospects in this year’s draft. Most years you are lucky to get one, but this season we are looking at least four superior running backs to add to our dynasty rosters.
During the last few years, D’Andre Swift was labeled a top-flight devy prospect. The wait is over and we will finally get the opportunity to see him enter the big leagues. He is going to add value to many dynasty teams this off-season. Not to mention, he will instantly increase the value of the overall pool of running back prospects once he is officially in the league.
THE STATS
Courtesy of sports-reference.com.
As a true freshman, Swift started his career as an apprentice, observing how Nick Chubb and Sony Michel conduct themselves on the field while also getting plenty of opportunities to showcase his talents. Even with him sharing the load with two of the best running backs in college football at that time, he still owned a 14.19 percent of the carries and an 11.81 percent market share of the team’s offensive production. He was used situationally as a receiving threat out the backfield, leading him to finish the season ranked fourth on the entire team with 17 receptions.
The workload started to ramp up during his sophomore season. Chubb and Michel both declared for the NFL, leaving just Elijah Holyfield and some ancillary running backs to compete with him for touches. Naturally, Swift became the man to watch out of Georgia’s backfield. He surpassed the 1,000-yard barrier for the first time in his career with four 100-yard rushing performances. Georgia implemented him as a key piece in the passing game, lending him extra opportunities to get the ball in space and use his speed to break off long gains. His ownership of the team’s offensive production increased to 20.68 percent.
Swift continued his on-field dominance during his junior season with five games of over 100 yards rushing. He achieved a 21.06 percent dominator rating while also owning a 25.10 percent market share of the team’s offensive output. Even with the offense spreading the ball around more to the other running backs, Swift still managed to own a 7.24 percent target share. Brian Herrien and James Cook combined for 32 catches out of the backfield last year. Their usage didn’t affect Swift since the team’s overall passing volume slightly increased from the previous season by 8.62 percent.
Courtesy of DLF’s College Market Share App.
Looking back, Swift had a very productive career. He rushed for 2,885 yards and 20 touchdowns while averaging 6.6 yards per carry. The red flag that many people would point out about his production profile would be his light workload. Keep in mind, Georgia operates differently than most collegiate programs. They operate with a stable of top-flight running backs than pound their rusher into the ground.
As a recruiting pitch, Georgia takes pride in having their running backs pro-ready and not working them into the ground, so they have something left in the tank for when they are ready to hit the NFL scene. Since he had to split the workload over the course of his career, Swift’s dominator rating and market share numbers were not as high as some of the leading backs in this year’s draft class. It also prevents him from being compared to some of the “generational” running back prospects from years past.
THE FILM
The game film posted above is from his 2019 game against Vanderbilt where he rushed for 147 yards on 16 rushing attempts. This performance displayed how he can win in multiple different ways on the football field. The main key takeaway you will immediately notice from this game is how quickly he changes gears in the open field. If the defense doesn’t corral him and allows him enough space to hit full speed, then he’s easily off to the races. His burst and short-area quickness is his most notable trait and makes him a very dangerous playmaker when he has the ball in his hands.
We see him consistently shake defenders with his lateral quickness. Nobody has a dead leg like Swift. Defenders have to be disciplined when they face Swift in one-on-one situations. If there’s much space between him and the defender, then there’s a good chance that he uses his lateral quickness scoot past the opposition.
D'Andre Swift had 3.55 yards after contact per attempt. 57.47% of his rushing output came after contact with 18 carries going for 15 yards or more. pic.twitter.com/6jljxxCfQe
— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) March 5, 2020
There aren’t many running backs who can instantly read and react to the momentum of the defense. He makes quick decisions that allow him to get a step ahead of the tackler that’s attempting to crash down on him.
NFL scouts and coaches need to realize that he’s not used best as a between tackles grinder. He can be effective between the tackles sparingly but his game is getting the ball in space and blowing past the opposition. Swift is a multifaceted player and his output on the field will be optimized if his new team would take advantage of his versatility.
THE MEASURABLES
For the most part, Swift did what we expected at the Combine. He demonstrated good speed with a 4.48-second 40-yard dash and decent explosiveness with a 35.5-inch vertical combined with a 121-inch broad jump. His size-speed combination accounted for a 105.3 weight-adjusted speed score which ranks in the 80th percentile among running back prospects.
According to MockDraftable, Swift compares athletically to Duke Johnson. Swift is about five pounds larger than Johnson and is a little bit faster. Nonetheless, Johnson holds his own athletically. Although he has seen limited use throughout the years, he has been a very efficient runner.
He also compares athletically to Darrell Henderson who was a pried running back prospect in last year’s draft. Swift is far and away a better runner. He’s also more compact and a shade faster.
DYNASTY VALUE
Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Over Time.
Swift is one of the top running back prospects in this year’s draft. Historically, the top backs in recent draft classes held top-75 or higher startup draft value. Swift currently has a startup ADP of 25.00 and is typically falling off the board behind Courtland Sutton, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Jacobs, and AJ Brown.
His value is age-insulated and he should at least hold his dynasty value for the next few years, making him a safe investment in both startup and rookie drafts. This means, if he starts to look like a bust, then you should have some extra time to sell before his stock runs dry.
Speaking of rookie draft value, Swift is going to be a consensus top-three pick in startup drafts. He should easily be a top-five pick in most rookie drafts. In most cases, he will be the second running back off the board behind Jonathan Taylor.
Swift officially has a rookie ADP of 2.70. This year’s class is very competitive and there’s a chance we could see him fall a few spots if we see any positive changes to any of the other top wide receiver or running back prospects. I highly doubt that he will tumble in the draft and he should generate enough draft capital to warrant a top pick in rookie drafts.
CONCLUSION
Everybody wants a stud running back. Fantasy football, especially dynasty, is driven by elite-level running backs. Those players are hard to come by. It’s a must we take advantage of the opportunity to draft one of these running backs.
Swift is a premium prospect who has RB1 potential. He’s a very electric athlete who can make things happen when he gets the ball in space. His ability to catch the ball out of the backfield will elevate his floor and make him a safe fantasy asset on a week-to-week basis. We won’t need to rely on just touchdowns for him to be fantasy relevant.
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