Matthew Stafford: An Under-the-radar Dynasty Gem
It doesn’t require much deductive, painstaking research to come to the conclusion that the Detroit Lions have had a very rough stretch of teams recently. Some teams in the 2010s evoked a glimmer of hope before losing in the Wild Card Round for every playoff appearance. In the Matt Patricia era, the team has only won nine games.
Making matters worse, there are highly speculative rumors circulating that longtime franchise signal caller Matthew Stafford has played his last down in Detroit and will end up a trade piece as the first sign of a potential rebuild. Granted, it’s hard to see a regime with nine wins in two seasons pull off such a move, but the fact that such rumors exist is unhelpful to say the least.
What is known is that Stafford is coming off one of the very best statistical seasons of his career, if not the best.
Back injuries prevented him from playing more than eight games in 2019, but he performed well on tape and on the stat sheet. In those eight games he threw for 2,499 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions along with a passer rating of 106.0 (a career high).
FantasyData’s fantasy metrics have Stafford with 166.56 fantasy points on the season, making him the site’s QB29. Obviously, playing half of the year was the only reason for this. He was on pace for approximately 333.12 fantasy points, which would’ve made him the QB3 on the season, just behind Lamar Jackson (415.68) and Dak Prescott (337.78). With 20.8 fantasy points per game, he was making sure dynasty/fantasy owners were eating and eating well.
Those points per game numbers are a huge step up from his 2018 season (13.3), and one component deserves a ton of credit for that turnaround: Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. Yes, the infamous Super Bowl meme himself was largely responsible for the 32-year-old signal caller’s first half success in 2019, and that was a huge reason why the Lions are keeping him even after an awful 3-12-1 season.
In previous seasons, Stafford’s offensive coordinator was Jim Bob Cooter (JBC). He took away his quarterback’s vertical passing scheme in favor of a short yardage one that favored yards after the catch and seemed to be designed to protect Stafford from (at the time) one of the league’s worst offensive lines.
For a while this worked fine, but even when the front office invested more into offensive line talent, the scheme never improved or adjusted. This culminated in 2018 failures, primarily in the opening game of the season where Jets defenders called out the Lions’ plays before they happened.
The predictability of JBC’s offense made it a necessary decision to let him go after the season, and that’s where Bevell comes in. He didn’t suddenly become Sean McVay and fool people with crazy misdirection or inventive new wrinkles, but he opened the offense back up for Stafford, allowing him to stretch the field and attempt longer passes than JBC’s system. In an environment that made sense for his skill set Stafford flourished statistically.
More importantly, Stafford actually looked as good as his stats suggested. That’s not to say he was ever a terrible quarterback, but in previous seasons Stafford was a little more careless with the ball and had pretty fortunate interception luck, with dropped passes galore. In 2019, however, that was not the case, as he was taking good care of the football while stretching the ball downfield.
It’s a bittersweet feeling because the Lions went 3-4-1 with him, yet each of those eight games was decided by one score, the Lions had a lead at one point in each of those contests, and the team went 0-8 without him.
That said, could Stafford be a benefit to your dynasty team? Let’s take a look at some tape to determine why he could be an under-the-radar dynasty addition with Darrell Bevell by his side.
If there’s one thing everyone in the NFL circle knows about Stafford, it’s that he has an absolute cannon of an arm. His arm talent is compared favorably even to guys that have been above him for years like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. He has the ability to make throws from angles most quarterbacks wouldn’t consider attempting.
Take this throw to Kenny Golladay for example. The time to throw into this window is minimal, and Stafford realizes this as there are four defenders in the area. With incredible velocity he lets this rip, using instant transmission to teleport this pass directly into Golladay’s hands, beautifully might I add.
Here’s another example of Stafford’s arm talent. Once again the window he has to throw into is incredibly small, and executing this play with Kirk Cousins‘ or Jared Goff’s arm talent just isn’t possible. The velocity of this throw not only avoids disruption, but also threads into the receiver’s hands. You can’t throw it any better than this.
In a few cases Stafford has also shown restraint on the velocity of his throws. With soft touch on this play, he’s able to throw his receiver open and lead him away from enemy fire. He was brilliant throughout games such as this one against the Chiefs, keeping the Lions on the brink of a potential win even if they eventually got the short end of the stick.
Throws like these were constant when the Lions were in close games. Stafford has had a reputation for throwing jump balls to receivers in the past, but that was less of a habit in 2019 as he worked more on throwing his receivers open with excellent tight window precision.
Best of all, Stafford is an extremely mobile quarterback with the ability to buy time and escape the pocket while making throws across his body into windows you couldn’t get from any of the Lions’ backups.
The team’s offensive line took a step in the right direction in 2019, though they still allowed a decent amount of pressure. Practice makes perfect, as Stafford possesses the creativity needed to extend plays and (at times) the awareness to find the space needed in order to escape defenders. With his fluid movement in the pocket he’s able to avoid the edge pressure and throw across his body to an uncovered receiver for the touchdown.
He has his flaws and has made his share of mistakes in the past, but in Bevell’s offense he’s home. As long as the two are in Detroit we will see Stafford throwing deep passes regularly. Last year, he was once again complimented by an excellent duo of vertical stretching receivers in Pro Bowler Golladay and Marvin Jones (both about to enter the last year of their contracts), and will likely continue to throw to them in 2020.
Suppose Stafford gets traded. Depending on if he goes to a team like the Colts (nice) or Dolphins (would make them better, but he gets a far worse offensive line), the point still stands. I wouldn’t call him an elite quarterback per say, but he’s coming off his best season in a long time, maybe ever, and I can’t see any of the coaching staffs on both of these teams going the same way JBC did and gutting his passion for deep passing.
I expect Stafford to stay put in the Motor City. Keep in mind that he never missed a game between 2011 and 2018, so he had a pretty noteworthy history of durability in that time stretch. At the age of 32, he’s in the prime of his life physically and should be ready to go for the start of the season. I would not hesitate to add him and witness a feast for your dynasty team.
- 2023 NFL Draft: IDP Dynasty Fantasy Football Winners and Losers from the NFC - June 1, 2023
- 2023 NFL Draft: Best Fits for Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young and CJ Stroud - April 19, 2023
- Fresh Off the Bye Week: Bengals, Jets, Patriots and Ravens - November 18, 2022
