2019 IDP Projection Review: AFC North
All through the off-season we work to give DLF readers an edge in their dynasty leagues. That’s useless unless we can prove we’re OK at actually making decent predictions. This series looks back through our final pre-season projections and sees how good or bad they were.
Baltimore Ravens
The defensive line turned out OK. Brandon Williams was just ten snaps and six solos out, Chris Wormley three solos. Both were way short in terms of assists though and Michael Pierce was ten solos down.
Linebacker was a huge disappointment. Patrick Onwuasor was never really trusted as a full-time player (he averaged just 21 snaps per game after week five), while Kenny Young and Chris Board were flat out jettisoned early in the season. As a result, all of these predictions were poor. No excuses – it was just a miss.
The edge players were a little better, but still not great. Matt Judon managed 12 extra solos but was close on assists, sacks and pressure. Pernell McPhee played a bit-part role and Tim Williams ended up cut mid-season, while Tyus Bowser and Jaylon Ferguson were big parts of the defense. Not very accurate.
The four top corners were all in the right ballpark, but not what you’d call hits as the mid-season acquisition of Marcus Peters changed the landscape.
Safety was really interesting. The Ravens reverted to more of a SS/FS split than they’ve used in the last couple of years. Earl Thomas will do that for you. As a result Thomas underdelivered against tackle numbers, with Tony Jefferson and Chuck Clark doing the opposite. Clark was a surprise hit as the third safety, too, and his pressures were ridiculous. It’s not often you get to say a safety managed 45 more pressures than predicted.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were much better than the Ravens in accuracy terms.
Geno Atkins and Andrew Billings were both very good, only a handful out across tackles and sacks for both players.
Carlos Dunlap ended up a good story at DE. He was just eight solos, four assists and a sack over. Sam Hubbard was underestimated, though. He’s a blue-collar player and his ability to play all phases is beneficial. Correspondingly, Carl Lawson disappointed. He was used as a specialist pass rusher but managed just 35 pressures.
Nick Vigil goes down as a hit at LB. He was just four solos out, and even with 11 extra assists he was good. Preston Brown and Germaine Pratt were both bad, but would have been good if slotted the other way around. C’est la vie.
The corners were on the verge of being misses. Certainly, the top two in Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson totally failed to produce the expected tackles. Darqueze Dennard and B.W. Webb were better, but no one cares about third and fourth corners in IDP.
Shawn Williams produced fantastically for the second year in a row. His usage as a strong safety has transformed his value. He finished 20 solos ahead here, which is bad for accuracy but great on the weekly line-up. Jessie Bates managed a good season. We thought he would be far worse than his rookie year, but he only took a marginal hit. He’ll continue to be overvalued.
Cleveland Browns
Sheldon Richardson came out of the pre-season model well, but he played even better. His 49 solos (19 above projection) were fantastic. Note that he only managed four sacks from 37 pressures. That gives you a trade window. Larry Ogunjobi also overdelivered but not as drastically. He was eight solos, seven assists and two sacks up – not accurate but not awful.
Myles Garrett underproduced for obvious reasons. Hitting QBs with a helmet is rarely a good idea. His sacks were almost on target anyway because his finishing percentage was huge. That will likely correct itself in 2020. Olivier Vernon missed a lot of the year, but had the opposite problem to Garrett. He was creating pressure and not finishing. And lastly Chad Thomas had a nice breakout season. He was pressed into action and delivered his four expected sacks.
Joe Schobert was close to projections as the top LB, but Chris Kirksey’s latest injury (he’s played just 587 snaps since 2017) meant he missed entirely. Mack Wilson was a surprise hit over Sione Takitaki as the next man up, and Genard Avery failed to get anywhere near projection given his trade away and subsequent irrelevance.
Corner was a poor unit here. Denzel Ward missed plenty of time, and Greedy Williams secured the starting job sooner than expected but was also hurt.
Morgan Burnett started the season brilliantly at strong safety, but injuries kept him from getting close to targets. Damarious Randall (60 total tackles compared to 63 predicted) and Jermaine Whitehead (two solos and four assists out) were both much better.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Javon Hargrave had never played 500 snaps in his three years prior to 2019. To line up for 680 is a massive increase. As a result, he did really well against tackle and pass rush numbers.
Cameron Heyward was an IDP all-star this season as he vastly exceeded expectations. His pass rush numbers were comparable, but his tackles were fantastic. Stephon Tuitt and Tyson Alualu were both in the right ballpark as bench options.
Rookie LB Devin Bush ended up as a very good projection. He was just five snaps, five solos and four assists out, although he never got close as a pass rusher. Vince Williams was phased out massively and Mark Barron used in his place, so they were the wrong way around.
On the edge, T.J. Watt was close as a tackler, but his pass rush efficiency was a nice surprise. Bud Dupree was just way more effective than expected across the board.
Joe Haden and Steven Nelson were simply OK at corner. One was high and one low as tackler, but they were just one PD out each.
Terrell Edmunds had a more productive season than expected and managed to stay healthy all year. Sean Davis missed almost the whole season, which meant he was a bust of a projection.
Thanks for reading.
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