IDP Waiver Wire: Week Nine
The world of IDP fantasy football is definitely a tricky landscape. While someone seems to erupt out of nowhere on any given week, there are ways to uncover them before they break out. Let’s dig in for week ten and see which players have put themselves in the best position to earn their way on an IDP roster!
The gist of this column: finding guys that are either long-term dynasty fliers or quality one-week rentals-you’ll know which one from my writing. We will be using two different avenues to uncover IDP talent.
The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score. This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the following week and give my best dart throws for that given week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it has actually done very well so far), so this is a section dedicated to that.
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Season Totals:
Disruption Score~ 7 Busts, 7 Average, 7 Hits
Snap Counts~ 3 Busts, 4 Average, 2 Hits
Matchup Preview~ 8 Busts, 8 Average, 6 Hits
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Nick Williams, DT CHI (Disruption Score: 32.94)
Among Chicago’s stud defensive lineman, Nick Williams is doing everything he can to earn his spot on the field. His snap share has steadily risen from 22% to 70% throughout the season, and his fifth season is shaping up to be his best one yet. After having zero sacks in his first 29 games, Williams is back in the sack column after a rough couple of weeks. While this has been inconsistent at times, Williams is a name I am paying close attention to in DT-featured leagues specifically. His performance backs up everything you need to know.
Carl Nassib, DE TAM (Disruption Score: 39.58)
One of my initial Disruption Score darlings, Nassib is once again performing well under the radar. He currently has the most tackles for loss of any player with less than three sacks (6 TFL), but found the quarterback in London before hitting the bye week. Nassib’s slow start should ramp up much sooner than later, and he may still be on waivers after sitting out this week with a bye. I was amped to casually find him on my waivers last week, so be sure to look for the same.
Tyson Alualu, DE PIT (Disruption Score: 16.14)
This one is an obvious add. Stephon Tuitt’s brutal pectoral injury sidelined what was a spectacular bounce-back season for the All-Pro defensive end, but Alualu has shined over the past two seasons in limited snaps. Facing a Rams team that has been brutal along the offensive line all season long and on a team riding a major high right now, I can see Alualu stealing a sack off them in a high-paced, snap-heavy matchup.
Linebacker
Nicholas Morrow, LB OAK (Disruption Score: 11.46)
It turns out Vontaze Burfict’s “unique” pass-rushing repertoire wasn’t so unique after all. Morrow has racked up 18 tackles over his first three games replacing Burfict full-time, including an interception and a quarterback hit. Morrow is truly showing his full range of skills since getting the extra opportunity to restart his career, and he hasn’t looked back since. The Raiders should have plenty of teams running out the clock on them to finish the season, boosting his opportunity even further upward.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Al-Quadin Muhammad, DE IND (Week 10, vs. Miami)
The Dolphins are on fire folks! After a brutal loss to Pittsburgh yesterday and a Dolphins team that sacrificed their tanking operation to prove to the world just how bad Adam Gase is, I expect the Colts to quite literally run over the Dolphins next Sunday. As a result, I’m all aboard the Indianapolis defensive lineman, and Muhammad is a cheap flier worth plugging and playing.
Carlos Watkins, DE HOU (Week 10, BYE)
This one is an automatic add. J.J. Watt’s brutal pectoral injury sidelines what was a spectacular bounce-back season for the All-Pro defensive end, leaving Watkins behind to soak up the opportunity. Their matchup away from home versus the Ravens after their bye week isn’t promising, but Watkins is a guy to stash who could shine down the road come playoff time.
Linebacker
Troy Reeder, LB LAR (Week 10, @ Pittsburgh)
I don’t know when Troy Reeder necessarily became a thing, but all that matters is that it is here. Even with Cory Littleton playing his usual role in Wade Phillips’ defense, Reeder has found his identity in this intimidating Rams front seven. I expect the Rams to have a slight lead on the Steelers all throughout the game next Sunday, which should keep the game moving in a plus matchup for linebackers facing the Steelers.
Mack Wilson, LB CLE (Week 10, vs. Buffalo)
Shout-out to the amazing IDP Read & React podcast for being so high on Mack Wilson prior to the NFL Draft. Odds are that if you’re here looking for IDP waivers in week ten, you’ve heard of them by now… but if not, do yourself the favor! I was foolishly a bit more skeptical of Wilson’s upside heading into 2019 due to the presence of Joe Schobert, Chris Kirksey and Genard Avery, but yet Wilson has been one of the last men standing and had a stellar week nine against the Broncos. The Bills are starting to find their rhythm between their skill players and Josh Allen’s run prowess, and I expect more of the same run-heavy scripts against a woefully poor Browns defense. Plus-matchup for Wilson here once again.
Defensive Backs
Emmanuel Moseley, CB SFO (Week 10, vs. Seattle)
The 49ers are on a tear that has completely taken the league by storm. From the number two pick overall to the last undefeated team standing, the Seahawks *should* know that the only way to get past them is to get out to an early lead and not look back. Therefore, with should-be-MVP Russell Wilson on the other side of the ball, I expect Moseley to get lit up opposite Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf, much to the benefit of IDP owners. Russ has surpassed 30 pass attempts in three of his past four games, ramping up the opportunity for Moseley to accrue tackle after tackle after tackle.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
