DraftKings Bargains: Week Four
We want to target players who have the potential to be playing in high-scoring games that will ultimately boost their fantasy production. Generally, a game that scores 50 points are more will fuel multiple fantasy contributors and will make a great option to draw multiple players from to create a lineup. Lineups that are contrived by multiple players from the same game will more than likely boost your weekly total if they are playing in a game that turns into a shootout.
One tool we can use to help predict which games will produce a lot of points are the Vegas lines. We want to look at the over/under for each game to see the projected point total. We will use this as a guide to help make our decisions to which players we want to put in our lineups. I have the over/unders for week four posted above. Of course, we want to chase the games who have the highest total. We can also use the Vegas spreads to predict the game script. If a team is favored by double-digit points then more than likely the game is going to be a blow out. However, if Vegas is only giving the underdog a couple of points then there’s a good chance that the game could be close. The lines provide a gauge to how the game script could play out.
With that being said, let’s take a look at some of this week’s buys on DraftKings.
QUARTERBACK
Daniel Jones, NYG $5,300
DraftKings did not adjust their price point strategy for Jones after he finished week three as the second-highest scoring-quarterback in fantasy behind Russell Wilson with 34.2 fantasy points. I had him listed as a buy on DraftKings in last week’s article and I’m going back to the well to cash in those Danny Dimes for week four.
Jones injects a lot of energy in the Giants’ offense. He passed for 336 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 28 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Buccaneers. He will be playing in another advantageous matchup against the Washington Redskins. Vegas has the over/under set for 49.5 points. This game has the making of a high-scoring affair considering the Redskins have established a 70.86 percent pass rate on the season. They want to move the ball through the air and score points in bunches which should force the Giants into a shootout.
*Courtesy of DraftKings
Evan Engram would be the perfect player to stack with Jones. He’s the team’s top pass catcher and is listed at a palatable $5,700. Jones targeted him eight times last week. Engram has been a smash play all season and should pair well with Jones on a weekly basis going forward. Paired together, the quarterback-tight end duo will only cost $11,000 leaving plenty of room to build the rest of your lineup.
When you combine Jones’ rushing ability along with his soft matchup, you get a relatively safe play with some upside in your GPP lineups. His floor is high enough to make him a cash option since his low price tag will allow you to pay up at other positions. Jones should be sprinkled into multiple GPP lineups. It’s hard to believe Jones is a chalk option two games into his career.
Other options: Kyle Allen $5,200, Kyler Murray $6,000, Russell Wilson $6,100
RUNNING BACK
DraftKings has the running back position priced a lot tighter compared to the last three weeks. There aren’t really any free squares to throw into your lineup. Saquon Barkley’s injury takes away one of the top options at running back, leaving just a few reliable options at the top of the slate.
Kerryon Johnson, DET $5,400
The Lions will be at home this week against the Kansas City Chiefs who have the most explosive offense in the league. Detroit will more than likely want to control the clock with the run game to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. Baltimore tried this last week against the Chiefs and it didn’t work. We should expect similar results in this week’s matchup.
With CJ Anderson off the team, Johnson will receive a heftier workload, creating more opportunities to produce fantasy points. Against the Eagles, in week three he received 21 total touches. This is a very promising matchup for Johnson. He is playing against a very exploitable defense and even if the scoring gets out of hand, he should see some work in the passing game.
Johnson is a very talented runner and his breakout game is coming. His price point is more than affordable considering his ownership of the team’s offensive touches. There aren’t many cheap options at running back this week and Johnson is one of the few running backs that provides a high ceiling and floor with a low price tag.
Other options: Tony Pollard $4,600, David Johnson $6,800, Christian McCaffrey $8,800
WIDE RECEIVER
Terry McLaurin, WAS $4,500
DraftKings has no love for McLaurin. He has done nothing but produce in the last three weeks and he’s still set at a low level price tag. Since he’s underpriced, he will more than likely be a chalk option this week. Everyone is going to take advantage of the McLaurin discount. His price will definitely increase if he goes off again this week. This could be the last time we see him priced this low for a very long time.
We want to chase opportunity in DFS and air yards is a good measure of a player’s usage. If a wide receiver consistently sees deep targets then there’s a good chance that player will eventually experience a blow-up performance where he connects on a couple of his deep targets. McLaurin is an air yard machine who already has 368 air yards on the season. This is more than just a trend, it’s a way of life for the deep threat from Ohio State.
Not only is he getting targeted deep downfield, but he’s also receiving a consistent large volume of targets, making him a reliable fantasy option. He’s shaping up to be a steady fantasy producer. His usage combined with his low price tag makes him the perfect option in GPP lineups. Even if he sees a high ownership rate he can still be a valuable piece to a money-winning lineup. The Giants defense is soft and the Redskins want to throw the ball. Whether it’s Case Keenum or Dwayne Haskins throwing him the football, he should still receive a heavy workload.
Other options: Curtis Samuel $4,600, DK Metcalf $4,800, Christian Kirk $5,100
TIGHT END
Will Dissly, SEA $3,600
We are whistling Dissly going into week four. Seattle will be playing against Arizona’s high volume passing attack. The Cardinals are running on average 65 plays a game with a 70.98 percent pass rate. Per footballoutsiders, they lead the league with 23.32 second per play ran and they also lead the league with 26.47 seconds per play ran in a neutral game script. The Cardinals will make you run with them and the added volume is good for fantasy production.
Dissly has seen an increase in targets each week this season. He saw seven targets last week against the Saints. The Seahawks traded away Nick Vannett a few days ago which should open up more usage in the passing game for Dissly. Opposing teams are slicing through the Cardinals defense like a hot knife through butter and Dissly will get the opportunity to produce in a prime spot against one of the worst defenses in the league.
Seattle also has a bad defense and they might get exploited by Arizona’s high flying passing offense which could create a shootout of epic proportions. We want multiple players from this game. We could see Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Tyler Lockett, David Johnson along with a few others provide an impact for fantasy lineups. Dissly is a cheap tight end option to help fill our lineups. Other than paying up for some to the top shelf tight ends like Travis Kelce or Darren Waller, Dissly might deliver the most bang for the buck this week.
Other options: TJ Hockenson $3,300, Eric Ebron $4,000.
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