2019 August Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Round One

Jacob Feldman Posted On August 20, 2019

Can you smell it? Football is in the air! Even if the games are fairly meaningless right now, they at least signal that the real season is just around the corner! For those of you with late rookie drafts or who are trying to work in a few trades before the season starts, I gathered eleven of DLF’s finest for one last quick mock draft.

For this mock, we assumed standard PPR scoring without any positional bonuses. We also did not allow trades and assumed it was only a one quarterback league.

Let’s take a look at what has changed and what has remained the same over the last few months.

1.01 – Josh Jacobs, RB OAK

1.02 – David Montgomery, RB CHI

1.03 – N’Keal Harry, WR NE

1.04 – Miles Sanders, RB PHI

With very few exceptions, these have been the top four players in just about every draft I’ve seen or been a part of in the last few months. Jacobs seems to be the 1.01 in the vast majority of drafts and he goes first overall here as well. The combination of his complete skill set with the opportunity he is going to have makes him the favorite for offensive rookie of the year, which should mean good things for his fantasy production. While he isn’t on par with some of the top running backs in recent years, he is that next step down. I think his ceiling is around the Melvin Gordon level of running back, but with fewer injuries.

After Jacobs, the next three players tend to get mixed around a lot based on positional need and personal preference. You can make an argument for any of them to be anywhere in the two through four range, but you are going to be hard-pressed to convince me any of them should be the 1.01 or drop out of the top four. Montgomery has had the best training camp of the three by far. He’s already established himself as the guy. That isn’t to say that Tarik Cohen is going to disappear, because he isn’t, but Cohen will be used in addition to Montgomery most of the time, not instead of him. Coaches and media alike have also been praising the rookie.

On the other end of the spectrum, you have Harry. The news about him has not been good. He has struggled with minor injuries as well as when it comes to picking up the playbook. This has allowed a lot of the other receivers to get some hype. Don’t be swayed too much by your recency bias though. Harry still has all of the tools, including size, and will eventually be the dominant outside receiver for the team. The real concerns on him are still the same as they were before. It will likely take him a little while to adjust to the NFL and by the time he does, how much time will the Patriots have left?

I would consider camp for Sanders to have been fairly neutral. He hasn’t run away with the starting job as some expected him to do, but I think it was a little naïve to think that would happen in the first place. I think it was always going to be a bit of a committee with Jordan Howard, at least at the start of the season. Eventually, I expect Sanders to get most if not all of the work as he is the more talented player, but it might take a few weeks into the season.

1.05 – DK Metcalf, WR SEA

1.06 – AJ Brown, WR TEN

1.07 – Darrell Henderson, RB LAR

1.08 – TJ Hockenson, TE DET

The middle of the first featured three players who have been routinely going in this range since May, and then there is the wild card Henderson. As for the receivers, I would put them as having very average camps so far. Neither of them has exploded and turned into the alpha at their positions just yet. The pair of former Ole Miss receivers have missed a tiny bit of time with little nicks and have for the most part looked like rookies at times. They have also had little flashes at times as well. I expect them both to progress, but I don’t think either one will blow up as a rookie. I think Corey Davis is the man for the Titans, and Metcalf needs a bit of time before he can become a fully productive NFL receiver.

Hockenson has had a solid, but not spectacular camp thus far. The transition from college to the NFL at the tight end position is one of if not the hardest to make. For this reason, I’m not letting the news that Hockenson might start the season as a backup sway me. This is only a temporary situation if it even happens at all. He is going to be a star. Don’t let him slip out of the middle of the first round. If he does start to slide, grab him with confidence.

Then we have Henderson. As the summer has gone on, him coming off the board in the middle of the first has become a more regular occurrence. Personally, I’m not going to do it but someone in your league probably will. For him to pay back the investment at this level, I think everything needs to go perfectly for him. That means Todd Gurley’s knee needs to be bad enough that he gives up a considerable number of snaps, and Henderson needs to develop into an NFL caliber rusher. I think the chances of both happening are slim.

1.09 – Parris Campbell, WR IND

1.10 – Deebo Samuel, WR SF

1.11 – Noah Fant, TE DEN

1.12 – Justice Hill, RB BAL

Campbell falling to the 1.09 is about as low as you are going to see him go. I think he belongs in the middle of the round, much closer to where Metcalf and Brown went. He walks into a situation with the Colts where he could be a main target on one of the better offenses in the league. This should mean instant opportunity, and he has the talent to capitalize on it.

Samuel has started to leap up into the end of the first round discussion over the last few weeks. He has made some noise over the summer with coaches praising his work ethic and toughness. That has only continued into training camp with some solid showings. It looks like he is going to be involved early and often in the game plan for the 49ers. I’m not sure how high the ceiling for him will be as the offense is unproven and he is likely to be the third target at best, but the arrow for him is definitely pointing up.

Fant has been a fixture in the back end of the first round for quite a while now, and I think that is exactly where he belongs. Like a lot of the rookies, he hasn’t exploded in camp, but he is making some solid progress on the transition. He continues to look good but not great for the Broncos, but he is getting better each day. I think he could start on day one due to lack of options, just keep your expectations in check for him and all rookie tight ends.

I could have seen about four different ways to go with the 1.12 pick, but Hill wasn’t one of the ones I was expecting. Yes, the Ravens run the ball a LOT. However, a significant portion of those runs come from the quarterback position. What is left will likely go to the underrated Mark Ingram with Gus Edwards picking up the scraps. Ingram is older, but I think the Ravens are likely to find another free agent when he is done. I don’t think Hill, Edwards, or anyone else is the back of the future for them.

That’s it for the first round. Who do you feel is too high or too low in this mock? Let us know!

Author
Recent Posts

Jacob Feldman

Honorary Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Jacob is a high school math teacher by day and a father at night. This doesn't leave too much time for sane thought, so occasionally words like "icky" will slip into his writing. It is all a part of the fun!