2019 Summer Sleeper: Indianapolis Colts
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
The Indianapolis Colts finished the regular season with a 10-6 record. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs ended the Colts’ season in the divisional round of the playoffs.
The Colts had one of the most potent offenses in the league, averaging 27.06 points per game and also producing 386.19 total yards per game. This is a team that can put points on the scoreboard in a hurry and offenses like this tend to generate multiple fantasy producers.
Ashton Dulin, WR IND
Category: Super Deep Sleeper
There were 28 wide receivers selected in this year’s draft. Ashton Dulin wasn’t one of them. The Colts signed him as an undrafted free agent to a three-year, $1.77 million deal with a $15k signing bonus.
At Malone University, he was a big fish in a small pond. Last year, he caught 49 passes for 744 yards and ten touchdowns, equating to a 36.81 percent market share of the team’s passing production, combined with a 60.9 percent dominator rating.
Dulin took advantage of his opportunities and was one of the most productive wide receivers in the country in terms of sheer ownership of his team’s offensive production. The only thing that can discredit what he did at Malone was the level of competition that he played against.
After blowing up at Malone, he received enough notoriety to receive an invite to the Scouting Combine. His performance there proved he is one of the most athletic wide receivers in this year’s draft class. He ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds. The combination of size and speed that Dulin has is more than enough to allow him to be competitive at the NFL level.
Going into the off-season, the Colts were highly interested in added talent to their wide receiver corps. They signed Devin Funchess to a one-year, $10 million contract. They also drafted Parris Campbell in the second round at 59th overall. The extra competition on the roster doesn’t bode well for an undrafted free agent wide receiver like Dulin, but that doesn’t mean he can’t become a key contributor to the team.
Campbell, Funchess and of course TY Hilton are the horses the offense is going to ride this season. Chester Rogers, Deon Cain, and Zach Pascal are eyeing the backup spots on the depth chart. Dulin has the athleticism to turn heads in training camp. He is also a new face who could deliver something new to the offense. All he has to do is play well in camp and in the preseason games to make the team.
As you can see, all it takes is an injury and Dulin could possibly be thrust into the starting lineup. The NFL is a 16-game war of attrition and the odds that the Colts go the entire season without suffering any nicks to their squad is very unlikely. Opportunities will come as long as he plays well. He just has to be ready to take advantage of them.
TY Hilton will receive a large market share of the offense. The rest of the receivers on the roster last year saw 209 targets. If he gets the chance to see the field, he could possibly see enough workload to be fantasy-relevant. Andrew Luck threw for 639 pass attempts last season and even if that statistic regresses, the Colts would still be one of the top teams in the league in regards to passing volume. That being said, any wide receiver who makes it on the field for the Colts has the chance to be a productive fantasy asset in any given week.
The quality of targets is another benefit to working in the Colts’ passing game. Luck completed 67.3 percent of his pass attempts last year. He was also efficient throwing the ball downfield, completing 43.7 percent of his deep pass attempts. Due to Dulin’s elite-level 111.1 height-adjusted speed score, the Colts will more than likely try to use him to stretch the field. Compared to most offensive units, Dulin will see a lot of accurate targets which will help elevate his production.
Attributable to his college production and his workout metrics, he became an intriguing commodity during the draft process. Whether you liked him or not, he had to be on your watch list because had the potential to get drafted anywhere on day three. Unfortunately, he fell in the draft, creating a price point arbitrage in dynasty.
Things change quickly during the draft. Dulin’s dynasty value was significantly higher compared to what it was a few months ago. He literally doesn’t have an ADP because much like the NFL draft, dynasty leaguers are not quick to lay down any draft capital to acquire his services, allowing him to hit the waiver wire in almost all dynasty leagues. That means the only thing he costs is a roster spot and if there’s room available then there’s no reason to not make the investment.
He’s a highly athletic prospect who just happens to be on one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Dulin might not have a role right away, but he could climb the depth chart and if he does, then you’re going to want him on your team. Pretty much all pass catchers tethered to Andrew Luck hold some sort of fantasy value. The potential to be fantasy-relevant is real if he sees the field.
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