Dynasty Value Study: Chris Godwin

Ryan McDowell Posted On June 11, 2019

In this series, I will take a deep dive into one specific player’s current dynasty value. This can actually be quite a challenge considering player value in a dynasty league is impacted by everything from weekly production during the season to decisions players make off the field in the spring and summer months.

Here at Dynasty League Football, we offer many tools to measure a player’s value and I’ll be using many of those in this article. Let’s dig in!

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made former Penn State wide receiver Chris Godwin their third-round pick in 2017 after he improved his stock with a strong Scouting Combine. Then the Matt Harmon favorite fell victim to the Buccaneers depth chart.

After a subpar 2016 season, Tampa brought in new pass catchers in veteran DeSean Jackson and rookie tight end OJ Howard, along with Godwin. While he took advantage of a one-game suspension to star Mike Evans and a late season injury to Jackson, Godwin was mostly a role player, finishing the season with 34 receptions for 525 yards and only one touchdown.

The competition was still tough in 2018, but Godwin excelled when given a chance as Jackson and Howard each missed time with injuries. The second-year receiver finished just outside of the fantasy WR2 range, scoring seven touchdowns despite battling toe and ankle injuries of his own.

This off-season has already brought many changes to the Buccaneers and almost all have been positive for Godwin’s dynasty value. First, the team hired Bruce Arians as head coach. Arians’ teams have produced seven WR1 performances and 16 total top-25 fantasy finishes from receivers. Tampa’s longtime slot receiver Adam Humphries left to join the Titans and then Jackson was given his release. Their losses contribute to 37% of 2018’s targets being available, while the team has added only Breshad Perriman and Scott Miller through free agency and the draft.

DYNASTY RANKINGS

In our top 200 overall dynasty rankings, Godwin currently ranks 43rd overall, with a high rank of 42 and a low of 50. Godwin is ranked between wide receiver Cooper Kupp and running back Marlon Mack.

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In our positional rankings, Godwin comes in as the WR21, between Corey Davis and Robert Woods. He has a narrow ranking window with a high of WR19 and a low of WR27.

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DYNASTY ADP

In our recently released June dynasty ADP, Godwin’s ADP was 43.7, ranking him as the 42nd overall player and making him the WR19. This places him between Titans running back Derrick Henry and running back Damien Williams.

Godwin’s dynasty ADP history, which can be found on our new ADP Data Analytics page, shows that his current ADP is his new all-time high. This is no surprise based on the steadily building excitement and widely projected upcoming breakout season for Godwin.

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TRADE FINDER

Possibly my favorite value-related tool at DLF is our Trade Finder, which pulls trade data from actual dynasty leagues. You can also customize the data based on number of teams, scoring and starting requirements. Each of the following trades are based on typical PPR leagues with just one starting quarterback.

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These most recent trades, all taking place within the past month, show a wide range of value for Godwin. In some, Godwin is an important piece of a package deal for a superstar like Davante Adams, while in others he is the clear target. While all of these trades may not represent it, Godwin’s trade value is at its highest point ever.

DYNASTY TRADE ANALYZER

Our latest player value tool is our Dynasty Trade Analyzer. It shows that Godwin’s value aligns most closely with the 1.03 pick. Other players that are in the same value range as Godwin include Robert Woods, Marlon Mack, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Jones amd Corey Davis.

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TWITTER POLLS

Lastly, I love to utilize Twitter polls to identify how the community is valuing a player. While this is obviously not a DLF specific tool, it can be very revealing.

In recent days, I paired Godwin with many of the receivers who were valued similarly to him in either DLF dynasty rankings or June ADP. In most of these cases, I “aimed high” as the other receivers were typically ranked ahead of the Buccaneers young star. I wanted to really test the dynasty market for Godwin and the results were quite surprising.

Which WR do you prefer in dynasty?

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) May 28, 2019

So, based on these results, we could loosely rank these receivers in this order.

Cooper Kupp (56%)
N’Keal Harry (56%)
Godwin
Calvin Ridley (50%)
Robert Woods (46%)
Mike Williams (46%)
Tyler Lockett (41%)
Corey Davis (37%)
Jarvis Landry (36%)
Allen Robinson (35%)
Tyler Boyd (35%)
Sammy Watkins (33%)

According to these polls, Godwin has already bypassed more productive players like Woods and Landry and even is favored over other young wideouts like Lockett and Davis. Only Kupp, coming off an ACL injury, and the rookie Harry were chosen over Godwin.

CONCLUSION

If you’re viewing just one of the above DLF value tools, it becomes clear that Godwin’s value is rising. When viewing the data from all tools combined, we see that Godwin is being considered and valued as a top-20 dynasty wideout.

Author
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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.