2019 NFL Draft Aftermath: Winners and Losers from the NFC North

The NFL Draft is the most anticipated event each year for the dynasty community. The players we have scouted and analyzed for months (or years) finally have a home for the foreseeable future. The landing spots of rookies create a ripple effect throughout each roster. This requires evaluation not only for the rookies but the veterans on the teams being impacted by the changing landscape.

The NFC North was one of the more surprising of 2018. The emergence of the Bears and the disappointment of the Packers and Vikings fueled the narrative that this division is not as clear cut as was thought just a year ago. With three teams who have their eyes toward the 2019 Superbowl, this is an intriguing group of teams that are chock full of fantasy implications.

Let’s dive into how the new additions have affected the rosters.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Winner – Aaron Jones, RB

There was belief heading into the draft that the team may add an impact running back to take over from the committee approach with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Alas, this did not happen. The team did not add a running back until Dexter Williams in the sixth round.

Williams has the profile to be a potential lead back but joins the team with limited college production and minimal draft capital. There are still question marks about what system the new coach, Matt LaFleur, will install, but his history in L.A. and Tennessee could indicate a substantial increase in rush attempts. The Rams and Titans ranked sixth and ninth, respectively, in attempts in 2018 while the Packers were dead last. LaFleur will seek to find a more balanced approach and Jones could lead the way on a perennial top scoring offense.

Winners – Packers Wide Receivers

All signs point to the Packers being content with their current receiving corps. They have exited free agency and the draft without any additions at the position. Randall Cobb and his 61 targets departed for the Cowboys, leaving Geronimo Allison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Jake Kumerow to jockey for positioning behind Davante Adams on the depth chart.

In a limited sample, Allison was on pace for 116 targets through the first four games in 2018 (7.5 per game). He averaged 72.25 receiving yards and 0.5 TDs during these games, which would make him a clear fantasy starter.

Wide receivers were targeted by Rodgers on 62.3% of passes in 2018 (fifth most). Assuming Adams nears 170 targets in 2019, this will leave over 200 targets for the other receivers.

Additionally, if Lafleur implements more of Sean McVay’s 1-1 personnel usage (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers), the targets for receivers may increase despite an overall decrease in pass attempts. Given the startup ADP of these receivers, it is worth taking a shot on them since the upside can be substantial.

Loser – Aaron Rodgers, QB

Rodgers is a loser for all the reasons the receivers are winners. With the exception of Adams, there is not a receiver on the depth chart who has more than 55 career receptions (Allison). The team seems content with allowing their younger players to develop versus adding a more reliable veteran presence. This is great for them but leaves the burden on Rodgers to facilitate that development.

This may lead to the ongoing struggles with his efficiency on display in 2018 (29th in true completion percentage). He will hopefully benefit from an improved offensive scheme and his touchdowns should regress positively, but the lack of additional weapons may cap his ceiling for the upcoming season.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Winner – Kirk Cousins, QB

The Vikings have boasted one of the most balanced rosters in the NFL the past several seasons with one notable weakness – their offensive line. The team has invested to shore up the position this off-season by adding both free agents and spending their first two picks on a center, Garrett Bradbury, and tight end, Irv Smith Jr. Additionally, there had been rumblings that Adam Thielen may hold out unless he received a contract extension. Fortunately for Cousins, Thielen and the team worked out a multi-year deal last month.

Loser – Kyle Rudolph, TE

Rudolph is coming off a season where he played on 91% of snaps and was seventh in the league with 64 receptions. He has been a steady presence in the Vikings offense and fantasy lineups the past several seasons (granted, he was ranked 14th in 2018 before his week 16 three-TD explosion).

Kyle Rudolph Career Statistics

Rudolph has one more year remaining on his contract and was in negotiations for an extension. These reportedly have stalled and trade rumors have begun to swirl. This undoubtedly is linked to the team’s draft selection of Irv Smith Jr. in the second round.

If the team keeps Rudolph, his snap count and opportunity will reduce drastically as the team incorporates Smith Jr. into the offense. If traded, his value may fluctuate greatly depending on the team. Tight end is a difficult position to transition between offenses, so a preseason trade may spell disaster for his fantasy outlook in 2019. The silver lining is that he is 29 and is certainly going to receive a multi-year deal and opportunity somewhere.

CHICAGO BEARS

Winner – Allen Robinson, WR

Robinson’s role may not have been considered in question only a year out from signing a sizeable contract, even with his disappointing 2018 season. But my eyebrows raised when I saw that the Bears can cut him after this season with only a $2m dead cap hit in 2020. If he has another injury-riddled campaign or fails to meet expectations, the team could choose to move on from him instead of taking on his $15m cap hit next year.

The good news for Robinson is that Riley Ridley was their only addition during the draft (more about Emanuel Hall as a UDFA below). Ridley is a polarizing figure among the dynasty community, but I do not believe he will threaten Robinson for his role as the X receiver. While I expect Miller to continue making strides, the team will still need Robinson for the remainder of his contract to maximize their championship window.

Loser – Mike Davis, RB

Well, it was fun while it lasted. His off-season signing and the subsequent trade of Jordan Howard had Davis slated for upwards of 200 carries in the Bears offense. The team had only five selections in the NFL draft (and none until the third round) and they selected not one, but two, running backs (David Montgomery and Kerrith Whyte Jr.). There had been projections they would not select any given their limited draft capital, but the team was clear in addressing the perceived need with Montgomery in the third round.

At 5’10” and 222 lbs, Montgomery profiles as a three-down rusher who will step in as the starter week one. Head coach Matt Nagy has spoken highly of him as his “guy” and the team traded up to draft him. He will certainly receive Howard’s workload and potentially may cut into Tarik Cohen’s role if he can prove himself as an effective situational pass blocker and receiver. This relegates Davis to the role of backup and handcuff. Between Montgomery and Cohen, there will be minimal snaps and attempts available for others on the roster.

Loser – Taylor Gabriel, WR

At first glance coming out of the draft, Gabriel’s role seemed spared. But the team signed Emanuel Hall as an undrafted free agent shortly after the draft wrapped. Hall is an intriguing signing given his explosive athleticism and speed (4.39-second 40-yard dash, 90th percentile speed score, 99th percentile burst score). He is still raw as a receiver, but many experts were shocked to find his name not having been called.

Gabriel is owed $5.5m in 2020 and $6.5m in 2021 but can be cut with only $2m in dead cap after this season. There is only a chance and it will be an uphill battle, but Hall may be able to step in and fill Gabriel’s role as a field stretcher on a cheap rookie contract as the team clears space to sign Mitchell Trubisky to an extension.

Taylor Gabriel Contract

Per Spotrac.com.

DETROIT LIONS

Winner – Kerryon Johnson, RB

I hear the Kerryon Johnson hype train picking up with renewed vigor. Johnson showed flashes of being an elite three-down back in 2018. He was fourth in true yards per carry (5.0) and 13th in breakaway run rate (carries over 15 yards). He was 18th in PPR points per game (13.9) despite averaging only 11.8 carries. Unfortunately, the coaching staff chose to maintain a committee approach.

This will most likely not change with the addition of CJ Anderson in free agency, but it is promising that they did not add anyone of note in the draft. Ty Johnson was selected in the sixth round and will struggle to make the active roster come September. Theo Riddick will maintain his role on third downs, but the hope is that Johnson can continue to increase his role as additional roadblocks are eliminated. It also doesn’t hurt they drafted an excellent blocker in T.J Hockenson with their first-round selection.

Winners – Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay, WRs

Jones is probably the bigger winner because his role on the team was probably at greater risk than Golladay’s. After trading Golden Tate in mid-season, the team’s only additions at receiver were Tommy Lee Lewis in free agency and Travis Fulgham in the sixth round. Neither of these players will threaten Jones or Golladay in their roles.

With a full off-season of planning and the absence of Tate, these two receivers may both see a substantial number of targets in 2019. While Golladay is younger and potentially more talented, Jones’s price to acquire should not be ignored and is a worthwhile veteran addition to contending squads.

Loser – Jesse James, TE

There was a brief moment between free agency and the draft where promise existed for James. He signed a sizeable four-year, $22.6m contract to join a depleted depth chart and seemed slated to be the starter in 2019. James was utilized minimally in Pittsburgh but still had two 60+ target seasons in 2016-2017 and has not missed a game since his rookie season in 2015.

However, top pick Hockenson will step in immediately as the starter given his talent and draft capital. This relegates James to a secondary role in an offense that had the lowest tight end target share in the league in 2018 (12.1%). Even with the expectation that this increases, the lion’s share of targets will go to Hockenson. And given that James has never been a red zone weapon — only nine touchdowns in 56 games — it is hard to imagine he will have any fantasy relevance.

Data courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, www.sharpfootballstats.com, and footballoutsiders.com.

Thank you for reading. You can follow me @FF_TomB. I am always happy to answer questions and chat all things Fantasy. Stay up to date on all your dynasty needs at Dynastyleaguefootball.com.