so do you think you could do a follow up article after the combine with the bmi results for this class?
So according to google both ceedee lamb and jerry jeudy are sub-26
That’s where u look for notes on whether or not they can add weight to their frame or if they are lean for life! Lamb may be 6’2 194 today, but if he matures into a 6’2 205 frame…
I’ve been looking at this information for a few weeks now. And I’ve noticed a couple of things.
First off
BMI was introduced as a way for insurance companies to measure risk
Generally speaking young men will have a lower bmi than general public
Athletes will usually have a higher bmi than general public
BMI has steadily increased since the 90s
18.5-25 is messed as normal bmi
25- 29.9 is overweight
30+ is obese
These numbers will NEVER measure any football skill
Muscle weighs more than fat and that is why most athletes will fall in the overweight category.
What you have described can be plotted as a bell curve, its exactly what you would expect to find in this type of community. Less players in the extreme, more in the average areas.
I would bet that the players in the extremes, would be drafted lower in the draft. And most players drafted highly would be in the middle
Some other interesting facts about bmi
Males between ages 20-29 have the lowest bmi
Mexican-American have the highest bmi ave@28
White-American are next [email protected]
Black-american men [email protected]
These # were taken from CDC website
I’m always looking for new stats that can help me improve my dynasty draft strategy. Unfortunately I think this one misses the mark.
I appreciate your hardwork. I know alot of hours were out into gathering this information but I fail to see how BMI in a prospect is going to predict future success.
I have to agree, I hope the next article covers what eye color of a player means they will have the most success and then another based on their astrological sign…
I compared the BMI of WRs drafted in 2015 and 2016 and still in the league and scoring more than zero ppr fantasy points in 2019 to their 2019 (fourth and fifth year) ppr fantasy points scored. The correlation is near zero. That is, BMI doesn’t matter in predicting WR performance. I can confirm Trkarfb32’s assertion that BMI for all WRs attending the 2015 and 2016 combines fell on a bell curve (was normally distributed for you stat geeks out there), so you would expect small numbers of players at the extremes.
This article is a classic example of what the behavioral economists call “ignoring background rates.” What the article shows is that since most of the WRs in the league have BMIs greater than 26, most of the successful WRs in the league have BMIs > 26.
Further, I wonder how much “draft capital” really matters in predicting success. Over a third of these first-round WRs have to be considered huge disappointments at this point in their careers.
“BMI is a dumb measurement in real life it is even more dumb in fantasy.”
A quote from Socrates
Seriously though it means nothing.
Going with your BMI theory. Which Rookies from last year would you project to have the most future success. Top 7?
I’ve been doing this for years and have noticed this as well. I mean research did not include all of the data points yours did, but I landed around the same results, which was about 28 BMI. I have a similar BMI rule for RBs as well, but with the emergence of the satellite back, I’ve had to find a way to fit them into the equation, which hasn’t been easy.
You have to color the subjects of the BMI tests and not use the same reasoning as general populous. These are elite athletes BMI results. What it is indicating is a certain mass on a frame. The NFL is a punishing place and when you compare highly talented rookies it shows those with more bulk seem to do better. This could be indicators of the players workout habits or overall fitness or maybe it is simply more padding to take hits.
In the light of known factors it seems to simply be a refining of known traits we already track.
