Quarterback Flipper: The Dynasty Impact of Josh Rosen to the Dolphins
In a move that should have shocked all of nobody, the Dolphins have acquired quarterback Josh Rosen from the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for their second round pick in this year’s NFL Draft. The writing was certainly on the wall when Arizona took Kyler Murray with the first overall pick last night – that writing became permanent ink after Rosen un-followed the Cardinals on all social media outlets this morning. It seems fair to say Rosen really didn’t want to have any part of a faux quarterback competition or being a backup after believing he was the future of the franchise up until the Cardinals made the Murray pick official last night. The move has some far-reaching dynasty impact, so let’s examine the parties involved.
Josh Rosen, QB MIA
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Well, it looks like the “Fitzmagic” era ended without a single fantasy illusion where we were convinced Ryan Fitzpatrick was going to be good for more than a short stretch of time in fantasy or reality. Rosen wasn’t great in Arizona last year as he threw for just 2,278 yards, 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. However, he was also given what could have been the worst supporting cast in the league last year. The Cardinals nearly “David-Carred” him by exposing him to 45 sacks in just 14 games as well, resulting in Rosen having some happy feet at the end of the year.
Opinions of Rosen vary within the dynasty community. Some give his rookie campaign a pass due to his poor supporting cast. Others question his talent, mentality and potential. How should dynasty owners value Rosen and how might a change of teams affect this view? Let’s examine Josh Rosen’s body of work, then layer it on top of his environment to assess his current and future dynasty value.
As a Recruit
As a high school senior, Josh Rosen was named a 2014 USA Today High School All-American. He was rated as the country’s number 11 overall recruit, assigned a five star rating by the 247 Sports Composite, and was the top rated offensive player in the nation.
College Career
Rosen started all 13 games for the 2015 UCLA Bruins as an 18-year old true freshman. He was named the Pac-12 Freshman Offensive Player of the Year, Pac-12 Newcomer of the Year and a Freshman All-American.
His sophomore year was shortened after six games due to an injury to his throwing shoulder. Rosen returned to play in 11 games as a junior and earned second team All Pac-12 honors in 2017 while posting career highs in completion percentage, yards, touchdowns and quarterback rating, despite playing for different offensive coordinators in each of his three years at UCLA.
I view this lack of continuity as having a negative effect on Rosen’s development and performance; certainly a neutral effect, at best.
2018 NFL Draft
Coming off an 8-8 season under Bruce Arians, the Arizona Cardinals and new Head Coach Steve Wilks selected Rosen with the tenth overall selection in the 2018 NFL Draft.
In the last ten years, 26 quarterbacks have been selected in the top half of Round One. Josh Rosen ranks in the 27th percentile amongst this peer pool in terms of college QBT and Adjusted Yards per Attempt, ranking 19th of 26 in both metrics.
Again, keep in mind Rosen worked under different coordinators each year in college. His head coach, Jim Mora, was fired mid-season during Rosen’s final year at UCLA. Still, one could expect better peer group performance for someone with Rosen’s pedigree.
Rookie Season
Rosen started 13-of-14 games in which he appeared. Arizona went 3-13 and replaced Wilks with former Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury. The challenge within a dynasty football context is to isolate Rosen’s performance from that of the team. In 2018, Arizona had the NFL’s worst pass protection offensive line, its worst rushing offense, the most difficult schedule for quarterbacks and a first time NFL Head Coach who has returned to the coordinator level (current defensive coordinator; Cleveland Browns). Going back to the cohort of quarterbacks drafted in the top half of Round One over the last ten years, we plot rookie year QBR versus rookie year Winning Percentage to visualize the performance of individuals and teams.
We again see Rosen falling toward the bottom of the peer group. The implication is the team was poor, but so was Rosen. However, expectations should be tempered given the context. His Sack % (10.3%) was worst amongst all quarterbacks (min 350 attempts). However, the film suggests Rosen was often under immediate pressure rather than routinely holding the ball too long.
Current Dynasty Value
In1QB leagues, Josh Rosen’s April DLF ADP is #200 overall, twenty fifth among quarterbacks, below Dwayne Haskins and above Tom Brady. His all-time ADP high was 153 in December 2018. The DLF Trade Analyzer values Rosen equal to the rookie 4.01 pick in 1QB leagues and the 1.08 Rookie pick in two quarterback/Superflex leagues.
Conclusion
Josh Rosen’s college and NFL performance versus his comparable draft capital peer group is surprisingly poor given his resume and high price in Devy leagues going back to 2015. His current ADP value has decreased since the end of the season and is near its all-time low (218 overall in March). I contend that some concerns can be mitigated by coaching turnover (both in college and the NFL) and poor supporting casts. Rosen has prototypical size, superior mechanics, a fast processor, good anticipation and can make throws at every level. He checks important boxes of draft capital and an elite Breakout Age (18.6 years; 98th percentile). An investment at his current valuation has the potential for significant appreciation when his situation becomes clearer and more stable.
This much-needed change of scenery should be good for his short and long-term value in fantasy and reality. After all, this is a player many believed should have been the top pick in last year’s draft and the Dolphins just nabbed him for a measly second round pick. Rosen will need to get comfortable with the speed of the NFL, trust his offensive line again and rely on what got him to the NFL in the first place – a dynamic skill set and great toughness. Rosen’s ADP should rise a bit with the move as he really needed a fresh start.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB MIA
This will be known from this point forward as the day the magic died. Fitzpatrick was in line for the starting job in Miami this year in what could have only been billed as #TankforTua (I would have likely gone with #TankforTuna, but that headline opportunity is gone now), but the Dolphins have obviously moved in a different direction. Fitzpatrick was destined for some amazing hot streaks and putrid performances next year, but it looks like that won’t be happening unless Rosen gets injured or totally faceplants to a point where the Dolphins have a realistic shot at a top two selection in next year’s quarterback-rich draft. There really isn’t much dynasty value in the 36-year old Fitzpatrick at this point and while he could have yet another stretch of greatness left in him, it’s fair to wonder if dynasty owners should really be using any kind of roster spot on him at the moment. At least we’ll always have this:
Luke Falk and Jake Rudock, QBs MIA
There was a chance one of these two could have started some games this next season if the Fitzpatrick experiment had failed. Unfortunately, that didn’t quite happen. It would be surprising to see either of them make the final roster now.
Dolphins Receivers
The Dolphins currently boast a receiving corps featuring Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant. While that’s not the most talented group of receivers in the league (not by a long shot), their talent and the offensive line of Miami sadly seem like an upgrade on what Rosen had in Arizona. Each of these players has shown promise in the past, but none have been quite good enough to be a true weekly starter in dynasty leagues. Perhaps that changes now that they’ll be catching passes from Rosen. Stills and Wilson are still the players to own out of this group as Parker is a habitual underachiever and Grant hasn’t shown much consistency. Still, the addition of Rosen could be a good thing for the Miami pass catchers long-term.
Mike Gesicki, TE MIA
Much was expected from Gesicki last year, but he responded with just 22 catches for 202 scoreless yards last year. Rosen failed to make Ricky Seals-Jones fantasy relevant, but that’s likely not a truly fair comparison of tight end talent, either. This is a huge year for Gesicki and he looks like a possible buy low candidate at the moment if you miss out on this year’s loaded rookie class of tight ends.
Kyler Murray, QB ARI
Off you go, kid. Murray is going to be a pretty popular pick in the second round of most rookie drafts this Spring and Summer and the premier prospect in 2QB or Superflex leagues. At least he won’t have to deal with any drama in training camp now.
Brett Hundley, QB ARI
Hey, you might still have a job!
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