It is a familiar type of analysis that you’ve probably heard before or done for yourself: If I think this is going to happen, what else can I capitalize on as a consequence of it?
While I’m normally working on dives into stats and numbers and offering graphs and charts arguing for a player or strategy, I also, you know, play fantasy football. So it’s an exercise I go through pretty often. While working on my projections model and other data this off-season, I noticed a few areas in which we may be skipping this process, however. I think this could provide some value to us in 2018. So I thought I’d write some of these thought experiments up. This is the first article in that series.
But remember, I’m mostly interested in working the question, and thinking about how to explore a situation with this type of analysis. My conclusions might be different than yours, but don’t forget to ask the question: if this, then what?
Assumption: Jameis Winston is going to do better in 2018
Consequence: DeSean Jackson is a potential value
This may be a moot point now since Winston is likely to be suspended for three games to start the season, but I think it’s still worth exploring. Partly because there is still a chance the performances are good – or dare I say… better – in 2018? Also while Winston’s value for the 2018 season has to decline, that doesn’t mean it’s the same for the team’s receiving options, necessarily. This is partly because when and if he does get back on the field, they can still benefit from any improvement, and partly because it’s a good exercise so it’s worth practicing.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things