Post-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two
Dynasty Christmas is finally here! Or as some people call it, the NFL draft. After so much waiting, hypothesizing, debating, and hoping, we finally know which teams are connected to which players. That means we can now begin the process of trying to figure out what can and will happen once the rookies hit the field this fall.
Before we get to any of that, you have your rookie drafts! Possibly starting as soon as today, it is your turn to do your best predicting and forecasting on who will be the next stars in the NFL. To help you make your decisions. I gathered some of DLF’s finest to put together an instant reaction rookie mock draft.
We conducted the three round mock on Saturday afternoon, just as the final rounds of the NFL draft were wrapping up. That means these are our initial reactions and thoughts on how these players should be valued. For this mock, we assumed it was PPR scoring without any glaring team needs. The results were tweeted out live as they occurred using #dlfrookiemock.
This is how things turned out in the second round. If you missed the first round, you can take a look here.
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Early Second Round
2.01 – Baker Mayfield, QB CLE
2.02 – Christian Kirk, WR ARI
2.03 – Anthony Miller, WR CHI
2.04 – DJ Chark, WR JAC
The one player who lasted longer than I expected in this group is Kirk. I think he belongs in the late first round. In fact, I think he probably should have gone where Michael Gallup went in the first with Gallup being a second round pick. If you are interested in Kirk, I would expect him to come off the board in the late first in most drafts.
When it comes to his prospects, he is going to have the opportunity to learn from one of the best to ever play the position, which definitely can’t hurt! He will also have the opportunity to grow and bond with Josh Rosen, who the Cardinals hope will be their starter for the next decade-plus. Ultimately, I think Kirk has the makings of a very good complementary receiver but not the top target on a team. Nonetheless, if Rosen works out, that could be a very productive role with WR2 upside.
Mayfield going with the first pick in the second round was definitely earlier than I expected. I was guessing that the first quarterback would come off the board in the middle of the round, and he would start a little mini-run with potentially three of four quarterbacks going in the back half of the second round. The early second seems a bit too soon, but the drafter said he feels Mayfield is more of a sure thing than any of the other players in the round. I don’t know if I agree with that, but everyone has their own opinions on the quarterback class. If Mayfield does pan out, he has quite the collection of weapons around him. Cleveland’s offense could easily be the most improved this year.
One of the biggest risers after the draft, and the end of a tier in my rankings, Miller will likely be a fixture in the early second round. With character and work ethic on par with some of the best in the league, there will be very few who work as hard as he does to be successful. I love the pick as a Bears fan, and even though he isn’t a top end talent athletically, he should turn into a very productive pro. I think he’ll be a great complement to Allen Robinson, and he could easily turn into a WR2 for fantasy purposes if the expected progression of the Bears offense actually happens.
With all of the first round picks as well as Kirk and Miller off the board, this is the definite end of a tier in my book. The next few receivers, as well as the top tight ends, make up the next grouping for me. You can make arguments for all of them, but the selection of Chark at this point is definitely an upside pick. There aren’t a whole lot of 6’3” receivers who can move like he can.
The issue is that he has quite a ways to go when it comes being a complete receiver. He made it through college purely on his athletic ability and size. The good news is that he seems to be a competitor who isn’t afraid of working for what he wants. The Jaguars don’t have a whole lot left on the receiver depth chart, so he should be given every opportunity to see the field. If he can develop his game, he should turn into a productive player.
Middle of the Second Round
2.05 – Mike Gesicki, TE MIA
2.06 – James Washington, WR PIT
2.07 – John Kelly, RB LAR
2.08 – Josh Rosen, QB ARI
I expect the middle and late second round to be dominated by quarterbacks and tight ends in most leagues. In this mock, five of the last eight picks of the round were at those two positions, and I feel like that will be relatively normal in your standard PPR leagues. If you are hoping for a quality running back or receiver, you might want to try moving up to the early second. If you want tight ends or quarterbacks, this seems to be the sweet spot.
The order of the tight ends will be debated over the next few weeks and months, but Gesicki definitely landed in the place with the least competition for targets. Put that together with his insane Combine numbers, and you get a player who has the physical skills and the situation to vault up into the TE1 ranks rather quickly. Keep in mind that transitioning to the NFL at the tight end position typically takes longer than most positions, but Gesicki will likely be on the field a lot as a pure pass catcher. He isn’t going to do much if any blocking, so think of him as a really big receiver. Even though he could be the least complete of the top tight ends, it wouldn’t surprise me if he leads the group in production early in his career.
One of the biggest fallers in terms of fantasy stock, both in my book and in terms of this mock, is James Washington. He was a fixture in the later parts of the first round before the draft, but now I think he is a middle second round pick. Washington has talent, but the situation is going to hurt him. He is now looking at being at best the fourth target in the passing game behind Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Le’Veon Bell.
I have heard some say that Washington will just take over the production that Martavis Bryant used to have (50/603/3 line last year), but I don’t think it is that simple. JuJu’s role will continue to grow, leaving less and less available for the fourth option. Without an injury, I don’t see a whole lot of room for Washington in the short term, and who knows what will happen long-term with the uncertainty surrounding some of their key pieces.
If I had to select a pick I didn’t like in the middle of this round, it is Kelly. Opinions on Kelly are all over the place. Some people absolutely love him, and they were talking about him being a late first-round pick pre-draft. He definitely has some highlights that back this up. However, I don’t know if his game translates to the NFL. I also don’t have any idea how he fits on the Rams. They aren’t going to take Todd Gurley out of the game for Kelly, and they have shown over the last few years that they didn’t know what to do with Tavon Austin. Maybe Kelly slides into that role now that Austin is gone, but it wasn’t very productive from a fantasy standpoint. I think he is one of those players who will be an NFL asset, but not a fantasy one.
The final pick in this cluster was Josh Rosen. Highly talented and with a huge chip on his shoulder, Rosen has the potential to be a great starter in the NFL. The questions around him center around if he can stay healthy and if he’ll be willing to accept coaching and direction from his coaching staff. If he can put that aside and be willing to work on his game, he has a golden opportunity. The Cardinals have some nice weapons around him with David Johnson returning, Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald to help teach the young quarterback, and new investment with Kirk. The only thing which could hold Rosen back is himself.
End of the Second Round
2.09 – Dante Pettis, WR SF
2.10 – Dallas Goedert, TE PHI
2.11 – Hayden Hurst, TE BAL
2.12 – Sam Darnold, QB NYJ
The 2.09 selection features one of my favorite picks of the whole round. Some other drafters commented that they were actually debating him as early as the start of the round. While I feel like that would have been a bit too early, it does go to show that opinions on his value are all over the place. Pettis didn’t get much pre-draft hype because he suffered an ankle injury just before the combine. Had he participated, I think he would have had a lot more hype.
The 49ers clearly liked him with the investment they made. He steps into a situation with a rising quarterback, and a wide receiver depth chart with only one receiver over 525 yards last year, and no one over 1,000 yards. Granted, Pierre Garcon was injured for a large part of the season, but Pettis will clearly see the field early and be in line for a significant number of targets. Great value at this point in the draft.
Then the mock went back to the tight end position. Pre-draft, many had Goedert as the top tight end on the board because he is the total package. Not only does he have the prototypical size, but he features great hands and seems to fit the bill as a complete tight end. The concerns are that his transition will be a bit more difficult than most given the level he played at, and that he is a bit more raw when it comes to his routes and technique. The larger concern now is that he will be behind all-pro tight end Zach Ertz. I think Goedert will need some time, and the presence of Ertz caps Goedert’s upside as a middle to upper-end TE2. To me this is Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates all over again… except Ertz is only 27 years old.
Thursday night of the draft, when only the first round was complete, I was feeling really good about Hurst. I know some have major issues with his advanced age, but I think his transition time to the NFL will be much less than most tight ends. These two factors kind of offset in my book, putting him back into the top tight end in this draft discussion. However, when the Ravens spent a day two selection on another tight end who is only a pass catcher, my hopes for Hurst took a major hit. I have big concerns that Hurst will be used as the primary blocker while Andrews runs the routes. We don’t get points for great blocks by a tight end in fantasy leagues, so this hurts his value.
The final pick in the round was Darnold, the quarterback I had on the top of my list pre-draft. Unfortunately for Darnold, he ended up in what is arguably the worst landing spot of the big five quarterbacks. I know he has Josh McCown there, a veteran who is known to be not only willing but one of the most productive mentors in the game; however, there really aren’t any weapons around Darnold. A quick look at their skill position players leaves me feeling very underwhelmed.
Maybe the Jets will invest heavily in the 2019 draft, but I just don’t trust the organization which has been one of the worst run in the league over the last decade or two. I like the player, but the situation is going to take a few years to overcome.
That’s it for the second round recap. I’ll be back soon with the third and final.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
