Post-Draft Rookie Mock: Part One
Dynasty Christmas is finally here! Or as some people call it, the NFL draft. After so much waiting, hypothesizing, debating, and hoping, we finally know which teams are connected to which players. That means we can now begin the process of trying to figure out what can and will happen once the rookies hit the field this fall.
Before we get to any of that, you have your rookie drafts! Possibly starting as soon as today, it is your turn to do your best predicting and forecasting on who will be the next stars in the NFL. To help you make your decisions. I gathered some of DLF’s finest to put together an instant reaction rookie mock draft.
We conducted the three round mock on Saturday afternoon, just as the final rounds of the NFL draft were wrapping up. That means these are our initial reactions and thoughts on how these players should be valued. For this mock, we assumed it was PPR scoring without any glaring team needs. The results were tweeted out live as they occurred using #dlfrookiemock.
This is how things turned out.
Top Pick
1.01 – Saquon Barkley, RB NYG
Let’s face it, this needs to be the pick in 100 percent of rookie drafts. I don’t care about team need, league scoring, or anything else. Barkley needs to be the 1.01. If you don’t like him, then trade back because whoever takes the 1.01 will grab Barkley. He is largely situation independent. The Giants are to feed him, and defenses will be unable to stack the box thanks to the pro bowler on the outside. He will instantly take the Giants offense and turn it into a playoff quality team. You want him doing that on your fantasy roster for the next decade!
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The Rest of the Early First
1.02 – Derrius Guice, RB WAS
1.03 – Rashaad Penny, RB SEA
1.04 – Ronald Jones, RB TB
1.05 – Nick Chubb, RB CLE
1.06 – DJ Moore, WR CAR
Overall, it is my guess that these five players will make up the 1.02-1.06 selections in the vast majority of rookie drafts. You might see one of them slip down to the 1.07 from time to time, but I think this is a bit of a tier for a lot of people right now. The order is going to be a whole different story though, as I think opinions vary greatly on that piece of it.
Prior to the draft, the second pick was pretty much locked in as Guice in most drafts. With his slide in the draft to the late second round and the seventh running back off the board, his status as the locked in 1.02 is in a little bit of doubt. However, I think he is still clearly the 1.02 pick and most in the mock agreed with me. He has a lot of talent, and there isn’t much competition for early down work.
There is some concern that he might not get a lot of passing down work, but I think he will get enough to be an RB1 in fantasy leagues. For those worried about his slide in the NFL draft, keep in mind that was due to questions which largely boil down to maturity. They have nothing to do with his ability on the field. Don’t out think yourself with this one. There is a reason he was locked in as the 1.02 in most people’s minds.
When it comes to the 1.03 pick, this is where you will start seeing a lot more diversity. I have heard arguments since Friday night that any of these players should be the 1.03 pick in rookie drafts. While I don’t agree with all of the arguments, they at least have some merit.
Personally, I don’t really think Penny is the right choice, but I think I’m in the minority on that opinion. I wasn’t overly high on Penny prior to the draft, and I don’t see his landing spot as being a great thing like some others do. When I look at Seattle, I see a team with a terrible offensive line that can’t open holes, a quarterback who will siphon off some of the running opportunities, and a declining defense that might force the team into playing catchup late in games. Plus, the Seahawks have shown they will play the best players no matter what they spent on you, so Penny will be in a true competition for touches.
My personal choice for the 1.03 pick actually went at 1.04. I believe Jones is one of the most talented running backs in this class, and he landed in one of the best situations. He should be the bell cow from week one on, and he has the talent to turn that into RB1 numbers. Not only do the Bucs have a solid offensive line and a young, talented quarterback behind it, but they have a top flight receiver who should prevent teams from stacking the box against Jones. I think the Bucs nailed this pick and grabbing Jones as high as the 1.03 will pay dividends for your fantasy team.
Chubb was neck and neck with Jones for the third running back in my rankings before the draft, but the situations caused Jones to pull ahead. While I think the Cleveland offense is on the rise (something I never expected to type), I’m a little concerned about how crowded that backfield has become. With Duke Johnson catching passes and Carlos Hyde also in the mix for all three downs, I’m not sure what kind of role and workload Chubb will have over the first year or two. Even if Hyde isn’t there, I think there is a chance he could be more of a two-down thumper, so he has slipped just a bit.
The 1.06 pick is also the first receiver off the board. I think Moore could go as high as the 1.03 pick in some rookie drafts as the best pass catcher. I think he has the talent and skills to be a legitimate top receiver for the Panthers. With that said, I don’t think he is the kind of talent who can be elite, so his fantasy upside might be more in the seven-12 range for the position. I am a little worried about the situation. Not because of his role but rather due to the inconsistency at the quarterback position. Cam Newton sometimes looks like one of the best in the business, but he also has moments where he looks absolutely terrible. That will definitely have an impact on Moore’s consistency.
Back Half of the First Round
1.07 – Sony Michel, RB NE
1.08 – Kerryon Johnson, RB DET
1.09 – Calvin Ridley, WR ATL
1.10 – Michael Gallup, WR DAL
1.11 – Royce Freeman, RB DEN
1.12 – Courtland Sutton, WR DEN
Much like the first half, I think this mock mostly nailed it when it comes to who should be in the back half of the first, but I think the order will vary greatly. The only potential exception to that in my mind is Gallup. I don’t know if he really belongs in the late first round, but more on that a little later.
Pre-draft, Michel was a very popular choice as the third running back overall and was commonly being taken at the 1.03 draft pick. His selection into the crowded New England backfield has likely caused him to be one of the biggest fallers of the pre-draft first round players. For a very good reason, people are very leery of the Patriots’ backfield. Not only due to the number of bodies and the specialization which seems to happen, but also because the roles and usage can very so drastically from week to week without any kind of sign. If you think you can figure it out, I wish you luck!
We go from one of the bigger fallers to one of the biggest rises. Johnson landing in Detroit has an awful lot of people really excited. Detroit has made no secret of their interest in finding a new leading rusher and given their history of not having 100-yard games from the position, it is definitely a need. However, there are many who feel that drought isn’t the fault of the running backs but rather team construction and philosophy. There is also the presence of a highly effective passing down specialist which might limit his upside. Regardless, I think someone will be willing to take the risk right around this range in your draft.
With seven running backs off the board in the first eight picks, it is time to see the second receiver. Ridley is a very polarizing prospect given his great film but poor Combine. I think his situation raised his floor but lowered his ceiling a little bit. In Atlanta, he won’t be asked to be the top dog anytime soon, meaning he isn’t going to face the top corner back nor anything close to a double team. Instead, he will be able to use his excellent route running to separate and provide a solid complement to Julio. I think he’s a great selection late in the first.
The 1.10 pick of Gallup was the only pick in the first round which caught me a little off guard. I understand the idea that with the losses of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, the Cowboys have an awful lot of targets waiting to be claimed. However, I don’t know that Gallup is talented enough to carve out a large enough portion to be fantasy relevant. That might not be a popular view, but is he really significantly more talented than Allen Hurns, Terrance Williams, and Cole Beasley? Dallas’s passing game will be a mess, and Gallup will be just one of a crowd.
I was waiting for Freeman to make his appearance, and it happened with the 1.11 pick. You could and probably will see him earlier than this in a lot of rookie drafts. I think he is a great value at this point. He should be able to step into the Denver backfield and carve out the majority share if not push for bell cow status. Considering the defense the Broncos should have, they should be able to keep the running game alive for the entire 60 minutes, which will give Freeman a lot of opportunities.
The final pick in the round was another receiver, which brings the first round tally to eight running backs and four receivers. Sutton slipped a little bit in the draft, but don’t let that dampen your fantasy outlook. While he probably won’t be super productive in 2018, the players ahead of him on the depth chart are not only on the wrong side of 30, but they are also the owners of high priced contracts with very little guaranteed money. If things go well for Sutton this year, he could find himself as a top two target for the Broncos as soon as 2019. That’s definitely worth the last pick in the first round.
That’s it for the first round recap. I’ll be back soon with the other rounds.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
