2018 NFL Draft Dynasty Fantasy Football Analysis: Rounds Two and Three
The first day of the NFL Draft mostly brought us quarterback news and two surprise running back selections. However, day two promised much more and delivered in terms of a whole host of position players finding new homes. This year’s rookie drafts promise to be dominated early by running backs and many of them went to some surprising places tonight. In addition, we finally saw some of our favorite receivers and tight ends land with their new teams. Let’s run down all the dynasty relevant players taken on day two.
Round Two
2 (35) =Â Nick Chubb, RB CLE
If you’ve been playing in dynasty leagues for any amount of time, you know just how frustrating it’s been to rely on running backs from Cleveland. In fact, Isaiah Crowell is largely considered a disappointment but his 3,118 rushing yards represent the eighth most in club history – that tells you about all you need to know. Chubb will attempt to reverse the futile recent history of Cleveland backs and should have a chance to do just that. The Browns currently have Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde, so he may not be given true featured back duties from the get go but Chubb has the talent to emerge as the back Hue Jackson and the Browns have been searching for. If he’s truly returned to his pre-injury form, this could be a steal of pick for the Browns. He’ll be in play in the top half of rookie drafts this off-season.
2 (38) =Â Ronald Jones II, RB TB
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Wow. Jones becomes the fifth running back not named Derrius Guice to be taken in the 2018 NFL Draft as it seems teams had some serious concerns about Guice’s maturity issues. Jones lands in a great situation on a young but talented offense searching for one more missing piece in the backfield. Jones was ranked highly by many teams and with good reason as he comes off a season featuring 1,550 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns for the Trojans. With no real competition other than Peyton Barber on the roster, Jones could emerge as a true three down back for the Bucs early on if he can develop as a pass catcher, which is a legitimate question. Regardless, this situation puts him squarely in play in the middle of the first round of rookie drafts. Tampa Bay was easily one of the most desirable landing spots for a running back this year.
2 (40) = Courtland Sutton, WR DEN
Sutton has been our top receiver for over a year now, though the gap between Sutton and other players like Calvin Ridley and DJ Moore hasn’t been extreme. The landing spot in Denver is a little curious given the depth chart that currently boasts players like Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders but let’s be honest, they’re both on the back end of their careers and the Broncos are searching for a future top target. Sutton may start out slowly in his career but he has major upside in the Mile High City. At the very least, Sutton is strong enough to be a very good possession receiver and that gives him a relatively high floor. He’s going to be an interesting target at the end of round one in dynasty rookie drafts.
2 (42) = Mike Gesicki, TE MIA
The Julius Thomas experiment didn’t exactly work in Miami and they were left with MarQueis Gray, AJ Derby and Thomas Duarte at the position, leaving them with a serious need at the position. Gesecki is a combine and workout wonder with production to back it up. His blocking leaves a ton to desire but fantasy owners won’t care too much. He should be moved around quite a bit and can be used in multiple sets even in the slot because of his athletic ability. It’s a nice fit for immediate production but it may take some time for him to truly develop. Dynasty owners should be patient if they use a pick in the late second or third round on him.
2 (43) = Kerryon Johnson, RB DET
When the Lions traded up in the draft to this position, many felt it was for a running back. However, most believed this would be the spot for Derrius Guice. Instead, Johnson was the pick. There was some smoke all day about Johnson being linked to the Lions and for once, there was fire behind it. The Lions (much like the Browns) have been desperately searching for a lead runner for years and certainly hope they’ve found it here. I’ve always loved running backs who thrive in the SEC and Johnson fits the bill after posting 1,391 yards and 18 touchdowns for Auburn last year. Included in that massive season total were monster games against historically elite teams like LSU (156 yards), Georgia (167 yards) and Alabama (104 yards). Johnson was ranked #12 in our pre-draft rankings and that’s sure to rise as he landed in a good spot, regardless of the existence of LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick.
2 (44) = Dante Pettis, WR SF
Living in Washington, I have to admit I’m a little bias toward Pettis since I’ve seen him play in person so many times over the years. That being said, Pettis really is a dynamic player with the ball in his hands and is a nothing short of a holy terror in the return game. His career as a Husky was solid with 163 catches for 2,256 yards and 24 touchdowns and he broke the NCAA record with nine punt return touchdowns. He doesn’t project as a true number one receiver in the NFL but he has major slot potential and should be great in the return game. He’s a likely third round pick in dynasty rookie drafts but he’ll be one with some nice upside as well.
2 (47) = Christian Kirk, WR ARI
The slide for Kirk ended at pick #47 as he was selected by the Arizona Cardinals. He lands in a great spot and should be able to form a nice dynasty duo with future starter Josh Rosen. Kirk could be a slot dynamo in the mold of Cooper Kupp from last year and, just like the player above him, is very dangerous in the open field. Kirk has been extremely productive at Texas A&M and should provide quick results for Arizona. Dynasty enthusiasts who want him will likely need to burn a late first or early second round pick in exchange for his services.
2 (49) = Dallas Goedert, TE PHI
A very angry David Akers (why were all the draft pick guests so ridiculous?) announced this one and it’s quite likely the Eagles jumped the Cowboys in fear they’d take Goedert out from under them. From a situation standpoint, things were going great from a dynasty perspective until this pick as many dynasty owners likely sighed when this pick was announced. Things would have been much better from a fantasy perspective had Goedert actually ended up in Dallas as Jason Witten’s replacement instead of with the Eagles playing the “Trey Burton second fiddle” role to Zach Ertz. Goedert’s rookie ADP will slip a bit with this destination but he’s a great long-term stash.
2 (51) = Anthony Miller, WR CHI
One of my personal favorites in this year’s class, Miller goes to Chicago to play opposite Allen Robinson in the Windy City. A former walk-on at Memphis, Miller emerged as an unbelievable receiver who posted nearly 2,900 receiving yards and 32 touchdowns over the past two seasons. His numbers weren’t just against sub-par Conference USA competition, either. I’d highly suggest reading his open letter he posted on The Player’s Tribune as you’ll fall in love with him. Miller is likely going to be a late second or third round pick but he’s a player who is easy to root for and should get a legitimate chance for early production with Chicago.
2 (59) = Derrius Guice, RB WAS
Speaking of slides, Guice’s finally ended at pick #59. It’s fair to assume NFL teams were turned off by his allegations of, well, “interesting” questions being asked of him at the NFL Combine that later proved to be a little flimsy, at best. Guice’s character concerns (there are other issues at play with that and rumors of some type of investigation following him) were enough to scare teams away and make him the seventh running back taken. There are no on the field questions with him, however, after a decorated career at LSU that featured over 2,500 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns over the past two years. There were times where many even believed Guice was a better prospect than teammate Leonard Fournette. Guice’s position in rookie rankings is going to be the story of May as this draft has seemingly produced no fewer than eight new starting running backs in the first two rounds. Those who want to play it safe have several options over Guice. Those who want to take a risk may be able to get a talented running back at a draft slot in the middle of the first round where nobody expected him to end up. Just remember the fuss about Dalvin Cook last year. In the end, he was just fine.
2 (60) = James Washington, WR PIT
Interesting. The Steelers moved Martavis Bryant yesterday and seemingly found his replacement in the form of Washington tonight. Pittsburgh has done a tremendous job in drafting quality receivers and they’ll have a bit of a project here with Washington, who is built more like a running back than a receiver. Still, the production is clearly there as Washington posted 74 catches for 1,549 yards and had 13 touchdowns last season. The Steelers should be able to let him develop and become a weapon for them in the future. Washington was a fringe first round dynasty rookie prospect and it’s going to be interesting to see what happens to his value with this landing spot. My bet is it drops a few spots but he could be a nice value selection in rookie drafts.
2 (61) = DJ Chark, WR JAX
Chark was seemingly on the rise after blowing up the combine and it resulted in him going late in the second round. He has legitimate “top off the defense” speed and should help soften the blow of losing Allen Robinson. He can also help in the return game for the Jaguars if they choose to use him that way. He’s going to need a lot of time to develop but he also has a very high ceiling. If you’re looking for a calculated dice roll in round three, Chark could be your guy. You’re just going to need a lot of patience as it will take him some time to really develop since he’s such a raw prospect.
THIRD ROUND
3 (71) = Royce Freeman, RB DEN
Unbelievable. In all my years of covering dynasty leagues, I honestly can’t remember a draft more fantasy friendly to the top running backs. You can make a legitimate case there are eight new starting running backs coming from this class including Barkley (Giants), Penny (Seahawks), Michel (Patriots), Chubb (Browns), Jones (Bucs), Johnson (Lions), Guice (Redskins) and now Freeman with the Broncos. Ranking these eight players is going to be the story of May and I haven’t been this excited to run a fantasy site in a long, long time. As far as Freeman goes, he’ll compete with Devontae Booker and De’Angelo Henderson for snaps and neither of those two have been overly impressive thus far. Freeman has a chance to emerge early as the featured back for Denver and will be a very intriguing pick late in round one of rookie drafts.
3 (76) = Mason Rudolph, QB PIT
The Steelers must have really liked what they saw at the Oklahoma State pro day as they take Rudolph after snagging James Washington a round earlier. Rudolph has starter potential and will be able to learn from one of the best in the business in Ben Roethlisberger. Nobody really took the Roethlisberger retirement talk too seriously last year but Father Time is undefeated and it’s clear there aren’t too many years that are going to feature Big Ben at the helm in Pittsburgh. Rudolph is going to be a late round dynasty prospect but one who will be fun to watch develop.
3 (81) = Michael Gallup, WR DAL
Meet your first round rookie draft sleeper, folks. Gallup was already on the fringe of the first round but this landing spot was great for his dynasty value as the Cowboys swooped in and grabbed him after missing out on the likes of Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton and a host of other receivers. Â The concern with Gallup is the fact he’s still a pretty raw talent and didn’t exactly play against the best competition week in and week out. Still, he’s oozing with talent and was third in all of the FBS with 100 catches and fifth with a ridiculous 1,413 receiving yards for Colorado State last season. He has the look of a late first or early second round boom or bust dynasty prospect.
3 (22) = Mark Andrews, TE BAL
#buzzkill. We usually get running backs who go to bad spots but dynasty owners looking for tight ends out of this class have to a be little disappointed as Andrews ended up with the same team that took Hayden Hurst in the first round. Andrews has the look of a potential red zone weapon but it’s going to be really tough to trust him with Hurst in the fold. There likely better players to look at in your rookie draft and Andrews won’t be worth much more than a dart throw in the later rounds. This pick also hurts the value of Hurst a bit as well.
3 (91) = Tre’Quan Smith, WR NO
This pick was a little surprising with other receivers like DaeSean Hamilton, Deon Cain and Allen Lazard all on the board but it makes some sense for a team looking for a project they can be patient with. Smith bet on himself by leaving UCF as a Junior and it paid off for him big time. He’s a good blocker and has unusually long arms as well. He needs major refinement on his route running and isn’t the most explosive receiver in the class but there’s some dynasty sleeper potential here in the third round and beyond of rookie drafts.
3 (98) = Jordan Akins, TE HOU
It would have been nice to see one of the bigger names at the position go to Houston who has a huge need at tight end. Still, this pick holds a fair amount of intrigue. Akins is a former baseball player (much like Hayden Hurst) who decided to come back and play football when things didn’t work out. He’s a quick player for his size and has a great mix of athleticism and strength – the problem is his age. At 26 years old, it’s going to be tough for dynasty owners to invest much in him until the very end of rookie drafts and that’s just because his situation is so salivating.
We’ll be back tomorrow to report on any relevant selections. Â Now the real work begins with our rankings, cheat sheets and breakdowns.
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Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
