Final Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three
It is almost here! I know you can feel it. We are in one of my favorite weeks of the year: draft week! My wife makes fun of me, because I made a special point to it on her calendar just to make sure she knew. Aside from all of the ridiculous news stories you hear this week, we finally get to find out where all of these rookies are going. Then things get really interesting with rankings and everything else.
To give you one last little tidbit of information before the draft, I gathered 11 of DLF’s finest and asked them to join me for a three-round rookie mock, the last of the pre-draft process.
I’ll also be conducting a post-draft rookie mock, beginning this Saturday. If you want to follow along with the picks, we will be using #dlfrookiemock. There will also be a write up afterwards. Let’s get back to the present though. Here were the ground rules:
- PPR scoring with standard lineups (not superflex, not TE premium, etc)
- Drafters were told to assume they had a balanced team with no glaring team needs
- No trades were allowed
If you missed the first or second round, go take a look. On with the third and final round.
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Early Third
3.01 – Tre’Quan Smith, WR
3.02 – Anthony Miller, WR
3.03 – Sam Darnold, QB
3.04 – Antonio Callaway, WR
Once you get to the third round in a three-round mock, things can get a little bit interesting. You start to see drafters going for their favorite sleepers, or just picking up players they expected to go in earlier rounds. You also see a bunch of names who won’t be third-round picks after the NFL draft happens. Some of these players will vault up into the second round if they are drafted higher or into better situations than we expect. You will also see a few of them drop out entirely for the opposite reasons. All in all, take the exact placement of these players right now with a grain of salt because things will definitely change.
The early third round features a trio of receivers who could be second-round picks in a week as well as my top quarterback. Let me start with Darnold. Not only do I believe he has one of the highest floors out of this draft class at the quarterback position, but I think he also has one of the highest ceilings. He isn’t a perfect prospect given some issues with his release and turnovers and he trended the wrong way in 2017, but I think most of his issues are things good coaching can fix. He seems willing to work and has all of the physical tools you can’t teach a young quarterback.
Smith is an interesting player to watch. There were times when he looked like a future star, but then there were other times where he would kill drives with a drop or a lazy play. I think he is going to struggle to separate in the NFL due to a slightly slower first step off the line as well as out of his breaks. However, if he can be coached up and helped through those issues, as well as maintaining his focus at all points in time, he could turn into a successful NFL player. He makes for a great late second/early third round target.
Miller has been a very popular pick for some people as early as the middle of the second round. For that reason, seeing him slide into the third round was a little surprising. Richard shared his thoughts on his selection.
“I have Miller listed as my WR9 so naturally, I was happy to snag him in the third round. I also have him ranked above five players who were drafted before him so it kind of felt like stealing to get him with the 26th pick. Miller dominated in college and posted elite production in back to back seasons. His game tape is equally impressive. Miller also had the most combined receiving yards over the last two years in college football. He ran nearly every type of route in college showing his versatility, and he really excelled at getting open in the intermediate routes. His technical route-running ability should lend him to an above average target share with the right offensive coordinator.”
You will be hard-pressed to find someone who works harder than Miller. The concerns generally center around the lower level of competition and his advanced age, both current and breakout.
That leaves us with Callaway. If only you could combine Miller’s work ethic and character with Callaway’s ability. He’s the ultimate talent vs character question of the receivers this year. Based purely on his on the field talent, Callaway might be a top-three receiver this year. But there is so much more that goes into him. I asked Jake Anderson to give us a little perspective on his third-round pick.
“Taking Callaway in the third round at this point is a complete dart throw. Next week after the draft will certainly help solidify what kind of investment I’d be willing to make on him depending on draft capital and landing spot. I drafted him here assuming he is a sixth or seventh round NFL pick. His off the field issues have been well documented which caused him to miss the entire 2017 season. From strictly a talent standpoint you can argue he’s a top five in this class at the WR position. If everything breaks right he could become a WR2 in dynasty. I’m excited to see what happens on Thursday.”
Aside from the legal red flags, the lack of work ethic is very concerning for me as well.
Middle Third
3.05 – Dante Pettis, WR
3.06 – Bo Scarbrough, RB
3.07 – Deon Cain, WR
3.08 – Jordan Lasley, WR
The middle of the third round features a trio of receivers and just the first of two running backs drafted in the whole round. While the first round is definitely running back-dominated, especially in the first seven or so picks, I feel like the running back pool falls off a cliff pretty quickly this year. Once you get about eight or so running backs in (with most of those going in the middle to early first), I feel like there isn’t much left.
With that said, Scarbrough never turned into what we were hoping for in college. He was supposed to be the next great Alabama running back, and continue the trend of overall dominance the Crimson Tide have developed at the position. Instead, he wasn’t even the leading rusher on his team at the end of his career. He is big and physical, but he has also had some injury issues as a result. Mix in his lack of third-down ability, and you get a two-down thumper with durability issues. I can’t see too many NFL teams investing too heavily in him, which means his fantasy ceiling is a bit low.
Pettis was my third round selection, and I couldn’t have been happier to see him there. I have him ranked higher than anyone else in this round. He is in my top ten receivers and is fighting for the seventh spot with a few other players right now. I love his hands and instincts at the position. He always seems to be in the right place at the right time, which can open up big plays or just keep drives alive. I also think his athletic ability is very underrated. He missed the Combine due to an injured ankle, but I think he would have tested well.
The only complaint I have about him is he tended to shrink when the spotlight came on. He often disappeared in the biggest of situations. For example, over his four years, he has a total of nine receptions in five bowl games. I don’t know if that can be fixed, but I think he could be a solid complementary receiver.
Cain is the kind of player I normally stay away from. He is bigger with good straight-line speed, but he doesn’t catch the ball well nor does he separate from defenders. Jeff shared these thoughts on his selection, because we don’t see eye to eye on this one.
“My draft calling card has been my success in the third round of rookie drafts, usually at wide receiver, and 2018’s pool of prospects presents a fine opportunity for players not highly rated by the fantasy community but who carry NFL size and skill-set. Deon Cain is a perfect example of a third-round fantasy prospect who will be overlooked by fantasy pundits. Cain did disappoint in Mike Williams’ absence but Clemson chose to run the ball far more often. Despite this fact, Cain was still productive, carries great NFL size and has the “it” factor I look for in my third round selections.
While he did battle drops at times, he displays natural hands with great extension and a soft reception which is the mark of a receiver who has confidence in his receiving abilities. You don’t want a receiver that is learning how to run NFL routes and deal with more physical NFL corners while also trying to reform his catch-mechanic. Cain presents WR1/WR2 upside in time from the third round in fantasy drafts.”
He will be an interesting player to watch.
The final pick of the middle of the second round was Lasley. I think of Lasley as a lesser version of Callaway. Physically talented, but not as much as Callaway. Trouble off the field, but not as much as Callaway. Work ethic issues, but not as much as Callaway. So if I’m going to take a swing on someone with issues, I want the biggest reward possible, which would be Callaway. I’m steering away from Lasley in my drafts, not only for all of those reasons but because I think most of his production was a byproduct of having an elite college quarterback and not because he is overly gifted.
Late Third
3.09 – Mark Andrews, TE
3.10 – Mark Walton, RB
3.11 – Auden Tate, WR
3.12 – Keke Coutee, WR
At this point in the draft, there really isn’t a whole lot to choose from, so I start thinking about upside. Who could be a player who might surprise us and become an RB3 or a WR3/WR4 in fantasy leagues? By and large, this ends up being a less talented player who gets drafted into a nice situation. We obviously don’t know the situations right now, so it is just time to throw a few darts!
Andrews is the third tight end to come off the board in this mock draft, and I think that will be pretty standard in most drafts. A case can definitely be made for Hayden Hurst to be in the top three at the position, which is where I have him, but it didn’t happen in this mock. Getting back to Andrews, we have someone who is a one-dimensional tight end. A converted receiver, Andrews is a terrible blocker. What he does bring is wide receiver hands and movement over the middle of the field. He isn’t nearly as athletic and doesn’t have the same height as Gesicki, but he is in a similar mold of the only a pass catcher, not a blocker.
Walton is an interesting prospect. As I mentioned with Scarbrough above, I think the running back position dries up pretty quick this year. It is extremely top heavy, with not much left behind. Walton isn’t in that top group, so I think you already know how I feel about him. He is essentially only a third down back. He doesn’t have the size, vision, elusiveness in tight spaces, or strength to run between the tackles. What he does have is good hands, solid route running for a rusher, and is fairly good in the open field at making defenders miss. Unfortunately, I don’t think he has the elite speed or quickness to be truly special in the passing game specialist role, which is what is required to be fantasy relevant in that position.
The penultimate pick of the mock was Florida’s Auden Tate. Personally, I think Tate is a poor man’s Kelvin Benjamin. If you know anything about my thoughts on Benjamin, to be a poor man’s version of him is not a good thing. Though at this point in the draft, there really aren’t any great picks. So I asked Joseph to share what he likes about Tate.
“This selection of Tate was all about theoretical upside. Tate was seen as a late-first or early-second round prospect in rookie drafts even shortly after the season ended, but it wasn’t until the NFL Combine that his draft stock tumbled. I would have been out on him at that price, but as the 35th pick, I’m on board.
The concerns about his lack of athleticism are warranted and legitimate, but I’m also very confident that these limitations were evident from watching Tate on film. So what changed, other than validation of what we already knew? He doesn’t win with separation, but his massive frame lends itself to dominance in the red zone, as he’s shown throughout his career. Touchdowns are king in fantasy, and Tate is one of the better touchdown producers at the position in this draft. In a good situation, he could return value on the investment – particularly a pick this late.”
The final pick in the draft was Keke Coutee. He might receive the award for the most fun name, but that will probably be the only award he wins. He is an undersized burner with some nice agility to go with it. What he is lacking is anything resembling physicality in his game. He is also extremely limited and raw when it comes to his route tree. Unfortunately, he might be too small to place outside, and he lacks the route running and toughness to play inside. This could leave him as a return specialist in the NFL. If he can refine his routes a little bit and learn to beat press coverage, he could turn into a solid deep threat.
That’s it for our three-round mock. Don’t forget about the live rookie mock on Saturday afternoon! We will be using #dlfrookiemock for the discussion. Enjoy the draft!
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
